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Monty Hall

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Edited by Martin Thomas Humby, Friday, 12 Jul 2013, 22:02

Spent some time with this as recreation from AI Class. Now see by drawing a probability diagram the 2/3 chance of winning for swappers is obvious:

Monty Hall

Set swap-probability x to 1 and there is a 2/3 chance of winning the car.

With swap-probability 1/2 and there is a 1/2 chance of winning.

 

p.s. for posterity: the only comprehensive description of Bayes Ball I found at the time was in these slides nos. 21, 22, 23.

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