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Tutorial - M249 - Bayesian Methods

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Here are links to my M249 tutorial delivered on 27 Mar 2021: Bayesian Methods. This tutorial introduced Bayes' Theorem and its components, along with inferences and hypothesis testing:

  • Probability & Bayes’ Theorem
  • Prior probabilities
  • Likelihoods & conjugate analysis
  • Estimates & inferences
  • Hypothesis testing (additional topic, not part of M249)

This tutorial is for the 20J presentation (Sep 2020) and materials will expire after 12 months - except for OU Library resources.

SLIDES

http://www.open.ac.uk/documents/2/ka21110326275243.pdf

Please do let me know if you spot any errors or ambiguities!

TUTORIAL RECORDING

https://learn2.open.ac.uk/mod/connecthosted/joinrecording.php?id=1648457&scoid=4941880549&url=/pw3wbqg6y49u/&groupid=270251 

OU LIBRARY DOWNLOADABLE FULL TEXT E-BOOKS

I highly recommended the Sivia & Skilling book - it's very readable, has a very approachable style and lots of examples of using Bayesian methods. 

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Tutorial - M140 - Experiments & Hypothesis Testing

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Edited by Jason Verrall, Wednesday, 24 Mar 2021, 12:29

Here are links to my M140 tutorial delivered on 13 Mar 2021: Experiments & Hypothesis Testing. This covered:

  • Experimental Design Overview
  • Correlations & Intervals
  • Hypothesis Test Components
  • Type I & II Error
  • When To Use Which Tests
  • Interpretation

This tutorial is for the 20J presentation (Sep 2020) and materials will expire after 12 months - except for OU Library resources.

SLIDES

http://www.open.ac.uk/documents/3/nc21120302242328.pdf

Please do let me know if you spot any errors or ambiguities!

TUTORIAL RECORDING

https://learn2.open.ac.uk/mod/connecthosted/joinrecording.php?id=1644077&scoid=4884758530&url=/pulcven76m8t/&groupid=274133

OU LIBRARY DOWNLOADABLE FULL TEXT E-BOOKS


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Tutorial - M249 - Computer Book 4 & Bayesian Methods

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Edited by Jason Verrall, Saturday, 27 Mar 2021, 11:35

Here are links to my M249 tutorial delivered on 20 Mar 2021: Computer Book 4 & Bayesian Methods. This tutorial introduced Bayes' Theorem and its components, along with the LearnBayes & WinBUGS software:

  • Probability & Bayes’ Theorem
  • LearnBayes
    • Priors, Likelihoods & Posteriors
    • Prior to Posterior analysis
  • WinBUGS
    • Running a simulation
    • Analysing output

This tutorial is for the 20J presentation (Sep 2020) and materials will expire after 12 months - except for OU Library resources.

SLIDES

http://www3.open.ac.uk/documents/4/nx2109032323346.pdf

Please do let me know if you spot any errors or ambiguities!

TUTORIAL RECORDING

https://learn2.open.ac.uk/mod/connecthosted/joinrecording.php?id=1648457&scoid=4914392121&url=/pnsvzon4clc5/&groupid=270251

OU LIBRARY DOWNLOADABLE FULL TEXT E-BOOKS

I highly recommended the Sivia & Skilling book - it's very readable, has a very approachable style and lots of examples of using Bayesian methods. 


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Tutorial - M140 - Correlations & Confidence Intervals

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Here are links to my M140 tutorial delivered on 4 Mar 2021: Correlations & Confidence Intervals. This tutorial covered the purpose and theory of the Pearson Product-Moment Correlation Coefficient, otherwise known as r. I also cover some examples of scatter plots with different correlations; how to calculate r in Minitab; and the theory of both confidence & prediction intervals:

  • Scatter Plots & Correlations
  • r values
  • Correlation & Causation
  • Confidence Intervals
  • Prediction Intervals

This tutorial is for the 20J presentation (Sep 2020) and materials will expire after 12 months - except for OU Library resources.

SLIDES

http://www3.open.ac.uk/documents/9/ef21160357075952.pdf

Please do let me know if you spot any errors or ambiguities!

TUTORIAL RECORDING

https://learn2.open.ac.uk/mod/connecthosted/joinrecording.php?id=1644077&scoid=4844295767&url=/p5u1y02apbvh/&groupid=274133

OU LIBRARY DOWNLOADABLE FULL TEXT E-BOOKS


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Tutorial - M140: Reading & Using Scientific Literature

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Here are links to my M140 tutorial delivered on 27 Feb 2021: Reading & Using Scientific Literature. This tutorial covered some wider topics material on how to critically read and evaluate an academic publication:

  • Scientific Method
  • Why Publish?
  • What to Publish
  • Publication Process
  • Structure of a Research Paper
  • Evaluating A Paper
  • Simple Things To Check:
    • P hacking, graphs, numbers, so what

This tutorial is for the 20J presentation (Sep 2020) and materials will expire after 12 months - except for OU Library resources.

SLIDES

http://www3.open.ac.uk/documents/0/dg21160358072053.pdf

Please do let me know if you spot any errors or ambiguities!

TUTORIAL RECORDING

https://learn2.open.ac.uk/mod/connecthosted/joinrecording.php?id=1644079&scoid=4818820645&url=/pos3xifdz9qe/&groupid=0

OU LIBRARY DOWNLOADABLE FULL TEXT E-BOOKS


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Tutorial - M249 - Stats in Practice: Financial Crime

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Here are links to my M249 tutorial delivered on 2 Mar 2021: Stats in Practice - Financial Crime. This tutorial covered some wider topics material on how statistics and statistical models are used to detect financial crime:

  • Money laundering
  • Transaction Monitoring
  • High Risk Tool using logistic regression
  • Case Priority Tool using decision trees

This tutorial is for the 20J presentation (Sep 2020) and materials will expire after 12 months - except for OU Library resources.

SLIDES

http://www3.open.ac.uk/documents/5/te210903040355161.pdf

Please do let me know if you spot any errors or ambiguities!

TUTORIAL RECORDING

https://learn2.open.ac.uk/mod/connecthosted/joinrecording.php?id=1648457&scoid=4834382749&url=%2Fp3q4z6qi2vep%2F&groupid=270251

OU LIBRARY DOWNLOADABLE FULL TEXT E-BOOKS


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Tutorial - M140 - Chi-Square Tests

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Edited by Jason Verrall, Sunday, 21 Feb 2021, 17:25

Here are links to my M140 tutorial delivered on 20 Feb 2021: Chi-Square Tests. This tutorial covered the basics of hypothesis testing along with using the chi-square distribution to test for association between variables:

  • Probability Distributions & Hypothesis Tests
  • Formulating Hypotheses
  • Observed, Expected & Residual Values
  • Constructing χ
  • Degrees of Freedom
  • Interpretation & Limitations
  • plus step-by-step to complete a χ2 test in Minitab

This tutorial is for the 20J presentation (Sep 2020) and materials will expire after 12 months - except for OU Library resources.

SLIDES

http://www3.open.ac.uk/documents/9/vq21170216214982.pdf

Please do let me know if you spot any errors or ambiguities!

TUTORIAL RECORDING

https://learn2.open.ac.uk/mod/connecthosted/joinrecording.php?id=1644077&scoid=4785226363&url=%2Fp4cj1l3s5af7%2F&groupid=274133

OU LIBRARY DOWNLOADABLE FULL TEXT E-BOOKS

Error Analysis For Biologists: Statistics You Can Understand by Gierlinski, Marek

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Tutorial - M249 - Multivariate Analysis: Canonical (Linear) Discriminant Analysis

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Here are links to my M249 tutorial delivered on 13 Feb 2021: Dimensionality Reduction & Discrimination. This tutorial focused on Canonical (Linear) Discriminant Analysis theory & implementation in SPSS. 

  • Dimensionality Reduction Overview
  • PCA vs Canonical Discrimination
  • Discriminant Functions
  • Separation
  • Allocations & Evaluation
  • Matrix Scatter Plots & Discriminant Histograms
This tutorial is for the 20J presentation (Sep 2020) and materials will expire after 12 months - except for OU Library resources.

SLIDES

http://www3.open.ac.uk/documents/0/qf21100257134010.pdf

Please do let me know if you spot any errors or ambiguities!

TUTORIAL RECORDING

https://learn2.open.ac.uk/mod/connecthosted/joinrecording.php?id=1648457&scoid=4752584541&url=/psi3plphz7d6/&groupid=270251

OU LIBRARY DOWNLOADABLE FULL TEXT E-BOOKS

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Tutorial - M249 - Multivariate Analysis in SPSS

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Edited by Jason Verrall, Saturday, 13 Feb 2021, 09:57

Here are links to my M249 tutorial delivered on 23 Jan 2021: Multivariate Analysis in SPSS. This tutorial focused on Principal Component Analysis theory & implementation in SPSS. This tutorial is for the 20J presentation (Sep 2020) and materials will expire after 12 months - except for OU Library resources.

  • Why bother with dimensionality reduction
  • Principal Component Analysis (PCA) intuition 
  • Vector & matrix refresher
  • Covariance matrix
  • PCA in SPSS
  • Reviewing & interpreting loadings vectors
  • Evaluating PCA
  • Scree plots & how many principal components are useful
  • Plotting principal components

SLIDES

http://www3.open.ac.uk/documents/6/be211401042356140.pdf

Please do let me know if you spot any errors or ambiguities!

TUTORIAL RECORDING

https://learn2.open.ac.uk/mod/connecthosted/joinrecording.php?id=1648457&scoid=4666808867&url=/puvbgwzvhfkb/&groupid=270251

OU LIBRARY DOWNLOADABLE FULL TEXT E-BOOKS


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Tutorial - M140 - Normal Distribution & Z-Tests

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Edited by Jason Verrall, Saturday, 6 Feb 2021, 13:35

Here are links to my M140 tutorial delivered on 6 Feb 2021: Normal Distribution & Z-Tests. This tutorial covered the basics of hypothesis testing; the Normal distribution; 1-sample & 2-sample Z-tests:

  • Probability Distributions & Hypothesis Tests
  • Formulating a Hypothesis Test
  • Normal (Gaussian) Distribution
  • Standard Normal
  • Z-Tests
  • plus step-by-step to complete a 1-sample Z-test in Minitab

This tutorial is for the 20J presentation (Sep 2020) and materials will expire after 12 months - except for OU Library resources.

SLIDES

http://www3.open.ac.uk/documents/9/ay21130224065995.pdf

Please do let me know if you spot any errors or ambiguities!

TUTORIAL RECORDING

https://learn2.open.ac.uk/mod/connecthosted/joinrecording.php?id=1644077&scoid=4718403724&url=/pp1d59hjp9sz/&groupid=274133

OU LIBRARY DOWNLOADABLE FULL TEXT E-BOOKS

Error Analysis For Biologists: Statistics You Can Understand by Gierlinski, Marek
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Thank your for the feedback

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Edited by Jason Verrall, Sunday, 24 Jan 2021, 14:09

I just wanted to express my thanks to all the students who have kindly provided me with feedback, either directly or through my anonymous surveys. I do appreciate it very much and it helps me to provide you with the best tuition that I can. Your feedback has helped me identify broken links on my blog; misbehaving text boxes and improvements to my slide format. Thank you!

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Tutorial - M249 - Time Series Analysis in SPSS (Computer Book 2)

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Edited by Jason Verrall, Sunday, 24 Jan 2021, 14:05

Here are links to my M249 tutorial delivered on 9 Jan 2021: Time Series Analysis in SPSS (Computer Book 2). This tutorial is for the 20J presentation (Sep 2020) and materials will expire after 12 months - except for OU Library resources.

SLIDES

http://www3.open.ac.uk/documents/2/em211301120952154.pdf

Please do let me know if you spot any errors or ambiguities!

TUTORIAL RECORDING

https://learn2.open.ac.uk/mod/connecthosted/joinrecording.php?id=1648457&scoid=4612352336&url=/psbemevx17gk/&groupid=270251

OU LIBRARY DOWNLOADABLE FULL TEXT E-BOOKS

OTHER ONLINE SOURCES

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Tutorial - M140 - Practical Probability

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Edited by Jason Verrall, Sunday, 24 Jan 2021, 14:05

Here are links to my M140 tutorial delivered on 14 Jan 2021: Practical Probability. This tutorial covered the rules of probability and some simple applications:

  • Why is probability so useful
  • Notation
  • Basic rules
  • Probability calculations
  • Probability distributions
  • plus step-by-step to get lists of random numbers from Minitab

This tutorial is for the 20J presentation (Sep 2020) and materials will expire after 12 months - except for OU Library resources.

SLIDES

http://www3.open.ac.uk/documents/4/pg211101061524115.pdf

Please do let me know if you spot any errors or ambiguities!

TUTORIAL RECORDING

https://learn2.open.ac.uk/mod/connecthosted/joinrecording.php?id=1644077&scoid=4635288023&url=%2Fpadjuwmdyhcl%2F&groupid=274133

OU LIBRARY DOWNLOADABLE FULL TEXT E-BOOKS

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Tutorial - M140 - Sampling, Relationships and Plotting Data

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Edited by Jason Verrall, Sunday, 24 Jan 2021, 14:06

Here are links to my M140 tutorial delivered on 21 Nov 2020: Sampling, Relationships and Plotting Data

  • Using Minitab to generate random numbers & random samples for surveys etc. 
  • Exploring relationships with scatter plots and regression lines. 

This tutorial is for the 20J presentation (Sep 2020) and materials will expire after 12 months - except for OU Library resources.

SLIDES

http://www3.open.ac.uk/documents/0/qn20141113231079.pdf

Please do let me know if you spot any errors or ambiguities!

TUTORIAL RECORDING

https://learn2.open.ac.uk/mod/connecthosted/joinrecording.php?id=1644077&scoid=4522868538&url=/pdo25g4bzo04/&groupid=274133

OU LIBRARY DOWNLOADABLE FULL TEXT E-BOOKS

Using Statistics : A Gentle Introduction by Rugg, Gordon.

https://pmt-eu.hosted.exlibrisgroup.com/permalink/f/h21g24/44OPN_ALMA_DS5189852530002316

Starting out in Statistics : An Introduction for Students of Human Health, Disease, and Psychology by De Winter, Patricia, Cahusac, Peter M. B.

https://pmt-eu.hosted.exlibrisgroup.com/permalink/f/h21g24/44OPN_ALMA_DS51101736040002316

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Tutorial - M249 - Hypothesis Testing & p Values

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Edited by Jason Verrall, Sunday, 24 Jan 2021, 14:07

Here are links to my M249 tutorial delivered on 14 Nov 2020: Hypothesis Testing & p Values

  • Components of hypothesis tests
  • Interpreting p values 
  • Good practices with hypothesis tests

This tutorial is for the 20J presentation (Sep 2020) and materials will expire after 12 months - except for OU Library resources.

SLIDES

http://www3.open.ac.uk/documents/0/hg20151106151053.pdf

Please do let me know if you spot any errors or ambiguities!

TUTORIAL RECORDING

https://learn2.open.ac.uk/mod/connecthosted/joinrecording.php?id=1648457&scoid=4491167750&url=/pdbwphv4djgn/&groupid=270251

OU LIBRARY DOWNLOADABLE FULL TEXT E-BOOKS

Medical Statistics For Beginners

HK, Ramakrishna

https://pmt-eu.hosted.exlibrisgroup.com/permalink/f/gvehrt/TN_cdi_askewsholts_vlebooks_9789811019234

Medical Statistics: A Guide to Data Analysis and Critical Appraisal

Peat, Jennifer ; Barton, Belinda

https://pmt-eu.hosted.exlibrisgroup.com/permalink/f/gvehrt/TN_cdi_askewsholts_vlebooks_9780470755204

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Tutorial - M140 - Minitab 1 Summarising & Plotting Data

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Edited by Jason Verrall, Sunday, 24 Jan 2021, 14:09

Here are links to my M140 tutorial delivered on 12 Nov 2020: Unit 3 - Summarising & Plotting Data with Minitab

  • Intro to data types, descriptors, locators. 
  • Components of a good graph. 
  • Minitab descriptive statistics function, graph plotting functions. 
  • Boxplot & scatterplot interpretation. 

This tutorial is for the 20J presentation (Sep 2020) and materials will expire after 12 months - except for OU Library resources.

SLIDES

http://www3.open.ac.uk/documents/3/ve20161104135390.pdf

Please do let me know if you spot any errors or ambiguities!

TUTORIAL RECORDING

https://learn2.open.ac.uk/mod/connecthosted/joinrecording.php?id=1644077&scoid=4479762080&url=/ph5n3q06pnbj/&groupid=274133

OTHER RESOURCES

Minitab channel on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/MinitabInc


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Tutorial - M249 - Medical Statistics SPSS & Computer Book 1

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Edited by Jason Verrall, Sunday, 24 Jan 2021, 14:08

Here are links to my M249 tutorial delivered on 31 Oct 2020: Medical Statistics SPSS & Computer Book 1, covering:

  • Inputting data
  • Telling SPSS about your data
  • Describing data
  • Hypothesis testing

This tutorial is for the 20J presentation (Sep 2020) and materials will expire after 12 months - except for OU Library resources.

SLIDES

http://www3.open.ac.uk/documents/9/kh20101059310949.pdf

Please do let me know if you spot any errors or ambiguities!

TUTORIAL RECORDING

https://learn2.open.ac.uk/mod/connecthosted/joinrecording.php?id=1648457&scoid=4361037232&url=/p48a9facnixf/&groupid=270251

OU LIBRARY - FULL TEXT DOWNLOADABLE E-BOOKS

Medical Statistics For Beginners by HK, Ramakrishna

https://pmt-eu.hosted.exlibrisgroup.com/permalink/f/gvehrt/TN_cdi_askewsholts_vlebooks_9789811019234

Medical Statistics: A Guide to Data Analysis and Critical Appraisal by Peat, Jennifer ; Barton, Belinda

https://pmt-eu.hosted.exlibrisgroup.com/permalink/f/gvehrt/TN_cdi_askewsholts_vlebooks_9780470755204

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Tutorial - M249 - Introduction to Medical Statistics, SPSS and Lookback to Module M140

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Edited by Jason Verrall, Sunday, 24 Jan 2021, 14:05

Here are links to my M249 tutorial delivered on 17 Oct 2020: Introduction and Medical Statistics - Introduction to Statistical Modelling, a look back at M140 and SPSS. This tutorial is for the 20J presentation (Sep 2020) and materials will expire after 12 months - except for OU Library resources.

SLIDES

http://www3.open.ac.uk/documents/5/pr20121017215555.pdf

TUTORIAL RECORDING

https://learn2.open.ac.uk/mod/connecthosted/joinrecording.php?id=1648457&scoid=4266962023&url=/pnrk3vv90eog/&groupid=270251

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Hello World

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Welcome to my (first) Open University blog. My name is Jason and I'm an Associate Lecturer with the Maths & Stats Department. Outside of the OU I've just completed a MSc in Data Science and I'm working towards establishing myself in my new field. Prior to this I lived overseas and worked in financial crime for an international bank, which I moved into after 10 years in the public service working in law enforcement and defence. 

I intend to use this blog to share materials from my tutorials this year, along with useful links, books and perhaps occasional thoughts on all things analytical. I teach two modules currently - M140 Introducing Statistics and M249 Practical Modern Statistics, so much of the material I publish here initially will complement those courses.

Feel free to contact me: j.verrall@open.ac.uk - especially if you find any errors! I'm happy to take questions as well about data science, analytics, statistics, financial crime and money laundering. 

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