Personal Blogs

So, UKIP have done it. Clacton is now in the hands of UKIP. Is this a matter for celebration or should we be very afraid? Is this the beginning of a Nazification process rather like Germany in 1933 - where everyone thought Hitler was a decent chap who was going to cure inflation and unemployment (and quietly encourage certain racial minorities to emigrate or face the consequences)? Or is it Britain's way of saying goodbye Tories, goodbye Labour and go forth and multiply LibDems? (Obviously the wording of the latter injunction might be closer to Essex 2014 patois than the 1611 King James Bible.)

Frankly I have no idea what the long term implications are of a single bye-election result and neither does anyone else, although it might be reasonable to assume that the people of Clacton like their current MP more than they like David Cameron. Would Nigel Farage make a good Prime Minister? Hmmm. He'd certainly be different from anyone Britain's had before. I rather like the idea of our PM standing outside a pub with a fag in one hand and a pint in the other saying the first thing that came into his head. But never mind that, would it be good for the country one asks? Wouldn't the novelty value wear off?

Hard to say. No one knows exactly what UKIP stands for when it comes to matters outside the European Community and immigration. Are they going to put up taxes? Are they going to nationalise the NHS? What about the army, law and order, gay marriage and fox hunting? Will they declare war on Scotland? Will they try to regain Calais that Henry VI so carelessly gave away? Yes I know it was Mary who finally lost it but the rot started with Henry VI. The implications of regaining Calais are colossal when you think that 99.9% of illegal immigrants come from Calais.

Is voting for UKIP going to hand the keys of number 10 to Ed Miliband? David Cameron seems to think so. But he's basing that premise on the assumption that only Tory voters are going to vote UKIP and Labour voters will stay resolutely Labour. Is there any evidence for this assumption? Very little actually, unless we believe that labour voters aren't interested in immigration and Europe. (As an aside, David Cameron can be very grateful that it's Ed not David in charge of Labour. David Miliband could lead Labour to a victory - and maybe he will one year, but not 2015. Did David Cameron bribe the unions? Or do the unions secretly want a second Conservative government?)

The really interesting question is how many seats will UKIP win at the next election. Answers please on a postcard. It could be nought or it could be fifty. Britain doesn't have proportional representation. UKIP could win 10% of the vote and not win a single seat (well they'll probably hold on to Clacton so let's change the nought to a one). And what will happen if UKIP win 50 seats and hold the balance of power? Will they go with Labour or Tory?

The problem is that I don't think Nigel Farage even knows what the UKIP policies are on everything else. If he does, he's (a) kept it to himself or (b) changed his mind so often he's as confused as we are. I suspect he'll go with the party that offers him the job of Home Secretary and lets him speak his mind. He's probably too astute to accept deputy Prime Minister. He's seen what that job did for Nick Clegg.

Fascinating times indeed, and I'm not really into politics. Incidentally I found the photo below on Facebook so I'm sharing it with the 1% of the population who aren't on Facebook as it's quite funny.