As I am currently working on an end-of-term assignment, I didn't realise that today’s nonfarm payrolls survey has been released, showing negative growth in job creation in key sectors of the US economy. Now, the above is a generative AI chart (above) illustrating a very profound relationship found in the literature; it projects the United Kingdom’s unemployment level by figure (>1million) and its vacancy rate expressed in hundreds of thousands, and noted in years and quarters. Can you spot the outlier?
As the plots on the chart show, when unemployment is high, vacancies are typically observed to be low (below 600,000), and vice versa. Except for a specific outlier (2020 Q2), which coincides with COVID-19, the U/V curve (also referred to as the Beveridge curve) is downward sloping (Pissarides, 2013: 292). In 2020 Q2, both unemployment and vacancies were low due to massive government job retention schemes that protected employment, combined with pandemic-related lockdowns that suppressed hiring activity and moved people into "economic inactivity". Despite a sharp drop in economic activity, the labor market was effectively frozen in place.
When inflation is high, this creates a further dilemma for businesses that post vacancies; the dilemma essentially is that unemployment tends to be low and when unemployment is low, the labour market is described as being ‘tight’ or there is a significant disparity between available vacancies and supply of workers seeking employment (assume these workers are structurally unemployed workers).
Now, although many overly-convoluted acronyms have been coined to describe aspects which the Beveridge curve reflects, that is, volatile and uncertain economics, acronyms such as VUCA and STEEPLE for example, there are still various reasons why approaching planned resourcing strategically can be beneficial for organizations.
Many strategic models outlined in my blog apply basic/hard forms of HRM, such as the Michigan or matching model authored by Fombrun, Devanna, and Tichy (1984). However, as one of my classmates who works in the UK Defence sector explained to me, organisations cannot ‘rest on laurels’ so to speak but should evolve through continuous adaptation to the challenge of new environments, such as during times of economic hardship.
References
Fombrun, C., Devanna, M. A., and Tichy, N. M. (1984). Strategic human resource management. New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons.
Pissarides, C.A. (2013) ‘Unemployment in the Great Recession’, Economica (London), 80(319), pp. 385–403
The UK’s U/V - Beveridge curve charting observations where U=>1million
Fig 1: The UK’s U/V - Beveridge curve charting observations where U=>1million
Source:OpenAI ChatGPT (2025)
As I am currently working on an end-of-term assignment, I didn't realise that today’s nonfarm payrolls survey has been released, showing negative growth in job creation in key sectors of the US economy. Now, the above is a generative AI chart (above) illustrating a very profound relationship found in the literature; it projects the United Kingdom’s unemployment level by figure (>1million) and its vacancy rate expressed in hundreds of thousands, and noted in years and quarters. Can you spot the outlier?
As the plots on the chart show, when unemployment is high, vacancies are typically observed to be low (below 600,000), and vice versa. Except for a specific outlier (2020 Q2), which coincides with COVID-19, the U/V curve (also referred to as the Beveridge curve) is downward sloping (Pissarides, 2013: 292). In 2020 Q2, both unemployment and vacancies were low due to massive government job retention schemes that protected employment, combined with pandemic-related lockdowns that suppressed hiring activity and moved people into "economic inactivity". Despite a sharp drop in economic activity, the labor market was effectively frozen in place.
When inflation is high, this creates a further dilemma for businesses that post vacancies; the dilemma essentially is that unemployment tends to be low and when unemployment is low, the labour market is described as being ‘tight’ or there is a significant disparity between available vacancies and supply of workers seeking employment (assume these workers are structurally unemployed workers).
Now, although many overly-convoluted acronyms have been coined to describe aspects which the Beveridge curve reflects, that is, volatile and uncertain economics, acronyms such as VUCA and STEEPLE for example, there are still various reasons why approaching planned resourcing strategically can be beneficial for organizations.
Many strategic models outlined in my blog apply basic/hard forms of HRM, such as the Michigan or matching model authored by Fombrun, Devanna, and Tichy (1984). However, as one of my classmates who works in the UK Defence sector explained to me, organisations cannot ‘rest on laurels’ so to speak but should evolve through continuous adaptation to the challenge of new environments, such as during times of economic hardship.
References
Fombrun, C., Devanna, M. A., and Tichy, N. M. (1984). Strategic human resource management. New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons.
Pissarides, C.A. (2013) ‘Unemployment in the Great Recession’, Economica (London), 80(319), pp. 385–403