Truly concerning data in the fall of primary pupil numbers
Thursday 25 September 2025 at 11:15
Visible to anyone in the world
Yesterday, the respected think-tank Education Policy Institute published a report So Long, London - An analysis of London primary pupil movements that covers the consistently falling roll at schools in the capital with projections of where pupil numbers will stand by the end of the decade. The data is alarming.
In 2017/18 primary pupil numbers peaked in London at just over 700,000 pupils, that number is projected to fall to just over 600,000 by 2028/29. The fall in London is attributed to both falling birth rate and a higher cost of living in the capital that is forcing many young families out of town. There is also a Brexit impact with a higher proportion of international families leaving the country.
Whilst the fall in the capital is most pronounced, it is equally bleak in the rest of England where in the peak year of 2018/19 there were 4,512,711 primary pupils in England, by 2028/29 that number is projected to reduce to 4,240,919.
In total there are expected to be 400,000 fewer pupils at schools in England than there are today.
There are both very real short and long term effects of falling rolls in England.
In the short term it will undoubtedly mean that some schools struggling for pupil numbers will inevitably close, this will mean the end of many single form entry village schools whose viability is simply not sustainable.
The greater concern in the long term is of course a smaller workforce and the higher tax burden they face in paying for an increasingly expensive elderly population (not to mention the public services they will be expected to staff).
The real politics of this is that more children are needed to maintain a healthy society. If they are not coming through birth rates and in the political sphere immigration has become a dirty word it is incredibly difficult to see an answer to this problem.
Truly concerning data in the fall of primary pupil numbers
Yesterday, the respected think-tank Education Policy Institute published a report So Long, London - An analysis of London primary pupil movements that covers the consistently falling roll at schools in the capital with projections of where pupil numbers will stand by the end of the decade. The data is alarming.
In 2017/18 primary pupil numbers peaked in London at just over 700,000 pupils, that number is projected to fall to just over 600,000 by 2028/29. The fall in London is attributed to both falling birth rate and a higher cost of living in the capital that is forcing many young families out of town. There is also a Brexit impact with a higher proportion of international families leaving the country.
Whilst the fall in the capital is most pronounced, it is equally bleak in the rest of England where in the peak year of 2018/19 there were 4,512,711 primary pupils in England, by 2028/29 that number is projected to reduce to 4,240,919.
In total there are expected to be 400,000 fewer pupils at schools in England than there are today.
There are both very real short and long term effects of falling rolls in England.
In the short term it will undoubtedly mean that some schools struggling for pupil numbers will inevitably close, this will mean the end of many single form entry village schools whose viability is simply not sustainable.
The greater concern in the long term is of course a smaller workforce and the higher tax burden they face in paying for an increasingly expensive elderly population (not to mention the public services they will be expected to staff).
The real politics of this is that more children are needed to maintain a healthy society. If they are not coming through birth rates and in the political sphere immigration has become a dirty word it is incredibly difficult to see an answer to this problem.