Recently, a lof of people have been warning David Cameron not to take the UK out of the European Union. This morning Michael Heseltine is in the news for this warning, but we've also had similar warnings from political leaders in the US and in Europe.
This puzzles me greatly.
Such warnings would only make any sense in a context which there was a realistic possibility that the UK might withdraw from the EU. I really cannot see why anyone would think that a realistic possibility.
Oh sure, there are some shield-munching Tory backbenchers who want us to withdraw from the EU, but that's nothing new. The same thing was true more than 20 years ago.
But I'm not aware of any evidence that the Tory leadership has any appetite for taking us out of the EU. Now, if Labour and the LibDems were united in wanting us to withdraw from the EU, then the desire on the Tory back benches might just about be able to topple the will of the government on this issue, but they're not. Labour and the LibDems are united with the Tory leadership in being firmly in favour of keeping us within the EU.
Let's face it, EU membership is good for politicians. Whatever the rights and wrongs of EU membership for the UK as a whole (and that's an argument I really don't want to get into today), the EU creates a whole bunch of extra power structures for politicians. Why would any politician want to give up power, especially the sort of power that comes with huge budgets?
I'm aware that there have been mutterings about holding a referendum on EU membership at some stage in the future. But surely no-one thinks that's actually likely to happen? If Cameron fails to hold a referendum on Europe after giving a "cast iron guarantee" that he would, why would anyone think there was any chance that he would do so after some far more vague promises?
So all these warnings about "don't withdraw from Europe" are deeply puzzling. People might as well be warning Cameron "don't nuke Finland", for all the connection these warnings have with reality.
My guess is that this is somehow part of Cameron's PR strategy. Rumour has it that Cameron will be making an important speech on Europe on 22 January. I wouldn't like to predict what he's going to say in that speech, but I will predict 2 things. First, if he promises a referendum on whether the UK stays in the EU, he will not deliver on that promise. Second, whatever he says will sound better in the context of all these warnings about not leaving the EU than it would have sounded had those warnings not been given.
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Cameron has promised a referendum AFTER the next general election, Adam. That says a lot, doesn't it? They won't have one before because research shows they would lose it. We should ignore advice from other countries on whether or not we leave the EU as they have only their own interests at heart. Cameron would do well to remember that.New comment
Referendum: submission of an issue of public importance to the direct vote of the electorate (OED).
Hhmmm.....what bothers me is how is this 'referendum' going to be phrased? What exactly will the electorate be asked? It most definitely won't be as simplistic or straightforward as "Shall we sever all our ties with the EU?" or "Shall we revert to our independent but still close relationship with the United States?"
The question will probably be phrased so ambiguously that it will be just a paper exercise so that the Government will be able to make teeny, weeny changes and then say that they are conforming to the will of the people!
We need a statesman (like Churchill, or even Thatcher)who cares about the UK - not these self-serving politicians we've got at the moment who care only about what happens during their term of office and don't give a sod for the long term future!
TaDah (rant over).