With P.M. Mr. Cameron having pulled off something of a coup in securing 'Special Status' for the U.K. (including, significantly, treaty change) in the European Council meeting on 19th February 2016 he may well have 'shot the fox' of those who will campaign for a 'No' to continuing U.K. membership of the E.U.
Now the 'Dogs of War' will be let slip in the EU referendum campaign as pre-statement Cabinet restrictions on advocating a position on the EU referendum question are lifted.
Even as the P.M made his speech at the conclusion of the Brussels negotiations, George Galloway was revealed as a surprising ally by Nigel Farage.
Mr. Cameron appears to be coping, admirably, with the Brexit position taken by Michael Gove. with the P.M.s strong position - removing the U.K. from any obligation towards closer political union he may well have increased his chances of swinging Boris Johnson's support in favour of staying in the E.U.
Any scope for the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJE) to inhibit the negotiated policies will disappear as these policies manifest in treaty change & legitimately shape the treaty objectives that it is the job of the CJEU to support.
It will be interesting to see what happens if the No referendum campaigners - who often assert that the EU is non-democratic - happen to be assisted by a democratically elected European Parliament who represent the last chance to unseat the package completed at the European Council meeting.
Some seasoned 'Brexit' campaigners have been positioning their artillery ahead of the referendum campaign.
A parliamentary debate on the BBC licence fee is scheduled amidst recent concerns over BBC bias on the referendum. No doubt a coincidence.
A parliamentary debate on the question that has vexed the P.M. himself on prisoners' voting rights is also going to draw one of the popular misapprehensions in public debate - that the EU is synonymous with the ECHR - into focus as the referendum campaign gets underway. No doubt a coincidence.
It may well be that one of the Government's strongest counters to the No campaign will include an increase of power for the U.K. Supreme Court as part of Mr. Cameron's express wish to bolster the principle of sovereignty.
No matter what position is taken with regard to the P.M. it is very difficult to deny that he has pulled off a remarkable political feat.
Comments
‘What says Lord Stanley?’ Richard III, Act V, Scene 3.
Nothing illustrates the intimate connection between law & politics quite like a referendum.
It’s perhaps possible, with the EU Referendum being held on the anniversary of the day the Battle of Bannockburn began in 1314, to discern some other similarities between current political positioning and medieval conflict.
As the Battle of Bosworth Field got underway on 22nd August 1485, King Richard III seemed to be in a strong position. He had twice as many soldiers as his adversary Henry Tudor.
Sir William Stanley was watching the fray - assessing which way fortune was likely to swing. Rather like Boris Johnson, Sir William Stanley decided to bid his time, surveying the strengths of the competing forces of King Richard III & Henry Tudor, engaged on Bosworth Field, before ultimately choosing to throw the weight of his supporters behind Henry.
Curiously this calculated move of self-interest has been given the seal of approval by none other than the great Scottish philosopher David Hume who wrote (in his History of England) that Stanley’s conduct in the affair, ‘discovers great precaution & abilities.
Stanley’s intervention had significant social & political consequences. Richard’s defeat meant the end of the Plantagenet line & the beginning of a new era under Tudor rule. D. Lindsay Keir, writing in his, A Constitutional History of Modern Britain, 1485-1937 (1943, p.2) marks the change from Plantagenet to Tudor rule as the moment in history that government transformed ‘from medieval to modern England’.
So will Boris’s choice of sides in the EU Referendum campaign (which I had completely wrong) amidst a popular reaction (that I entirely misjudged) to Mr. Cameron’s negotiations (that I still believe were genuine & impressive) have similar results?
Who knows? Certainly not me. But one thing that history reveals is that Hume’s 18th C. assessment of Stanley’s character was in marked contrast to that of Stanley’s contemporaries who, just 10 years after Bosworth Field, viewed Stanley's decision as treachery & so they executed him for treason.
The best of both worlds?
You can make your own mind up as to whether or not the U.K. Government's EU negotiation package has any merits by looking at the government's own publication:
The best of both worlds: the United Kingdom’s special status in a reformed European Union
A PDF form of the publication is available at:
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/502302/54284_EU_Series_No1_PRINTREADY.pdf
The concept of sovereignty sits prominently in the document and in related discussion.
I'll post on the concept of sovereignty separately, considering if A.V. Dicey, himself, actually adhered to his original formulation of the concept of sovereignty in the final analysis before his death.
As Dicey's notion defines subsequent discussion on sovereignty it seems worth while asking if he believed it himself.
Sovereignty Considered BBC Newsnight Special
The BBC's Newsnight have devoted a whole programme to the question of sovereignty in the run up to the U.K.'s E.U. Referendum in June 2016.
The link below takes you to the Newsnight special:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b077n4v0/newsnight-newsnight-eu-special-who-rules-the-uk