In 1992 The Sun newspaper ran a headline: "It's the Sun wot won it" suggesting the paper had swung the 1992 General Election result.
The 'people's psephologist', the excellent professorJohn Curtice, has said that the London downpours today may have impacted on voting turnout in England's capital city.
Might it be that, with the EU referendum voting seeming to be finely balanced as the initial results emerge, it's the rain wot won it?
Comments
A Close Vote
A very, very, close result in the EU referendum, either way, could raise significant issues.
The referendum (ironically a Swiss import) is an advisory tool with no legal effect. The result is purely of political impact with politicians morally bound to adhere to popular opinion. But what if that vote is so marginal as to leave almost exactly one of the polarized halves disaffected? Might the significant consequences of EU withdrawal give rise to political hesitancy in the case that the referendum result was a fraction of one percent?
Another political issue may result should regional variations in voting sentiment impact on the overall result. In particular, if Scotland, anticipated to vote in favour of 'Remain', happens to bring the UK vote overall just into a Remain decision how would that sit, politically, if the majority of the rest of the UK was in favour of leaving the EU?
Large Turnout Important
Professor Curtice says that the large turnout, running over 70% nationally, means that the result certainly has validity in his view.
That perspective supports the common sense arithmetical decision that even 1 vote could determine the result.
If ever the importance of voting is in focus it is in circumstances such as these!
Mother Nature and the Mother of Parliaments
England, the 'Mother of Parliaments', has seen Mother Nature play an interesting hand on the day that voters went to the polling stations.
The turnout in London seems to be lagging behind the high averages nationally by about 2 or 3 %. The difference may be down to the downpours in London.
Psephologists usually minimize the impact of weather on voting numbers (indeed sunny Scotland has seen a relatively low turnout it seems in comparison to elsewhere) - there are, of course, many far more fundamental issues which contribute to voting turnout than weather.
Yet here may be the exception to the rule that weather has little impact on voting given voter density and the vagaries of local weather.
It's quite a thought that such random variables might determine the outcome of such a significant moment in the UK's constitutional history.
New comment
One f the outcomes I was dreading was Wales and Scotland voting 'remain' and England overwhelming them by voting 'leave'. Why should the English decide the future of the Scots and Welsh? It would inevitably mean full independence for both countries would have to be achieved so that England alone could leave the EU.
If that is how the country voted, the borders around England are going to be interesting. Offa's Dyke and Hadrian's Wall rebuilt, with barbed wire and checkpoints, mostly to keep us English in.