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Barnhill, Jura. June 2015. (Thanks to the kindness of the Fletcher family).

General Election called for early June 2017

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Edited by John Gynn, Tuesday, 18 Apr 2017, 13:12

On the anniversary of the Treaty of Paris  a surprise announcement from PM Theresa May;

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39629603

The decision does seem difficult to reconcile with earlier calls from the PM for focus to be on negotiations and constitutional calm a requisite for focus.

The post-Brexit dynamics might make for quite unprecedented shifts in parliamentary seats particularly amongst the parties situated on the 'Remain' side of the debate over the EU Referendum.

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Barnhill, Jura. June 2015. (Thanks to the kindness of the Fletcher family).

Might there be chaos ahead?

Some weeks of campaigning have passed now.

This evening, Channel 4 news journalist Jon Snow seems to have captured the campaign process very neatly in two words: "Chaotic and dull".

North of the Border, the legacy of the EU Referendum, Brexit leftovers and the secession negotiations ahead seem likely to have in store the most significant impact for the SNP vote where there appears to be a real divide, in the one political party, as between on the one hand, those SNP voters favouring continued EU relations in some form (most likely in the shape of Single Market access) and, on the other hand, those SNP voters preferring a 'clean-break' from EU relations with little or no continuing EU ties.

The widely-recognised prowess of Angus Robertson in the evening's party political leaders' debate (minus Mrs May) could well bear upon voting pattern in Scotland.

Equally the undeniable charisma of Scottish Conservative leader, Ruth Davidson, seems likely to put real pressure on the SNP's dominant position in Westminster with some scope for the Westminster seats of even major actors in the current SNP Westminster intake seeming to be vulnerable to pressure from the Scottish Conservatives.

That may impact adversely on SNP representation in Westminster after the General Election and change the balance of the opposition.

But who will be the opposition and who will be the Government is, itself, remarkably, not so straight-forward as it appeared to be when Mrs. May called this unexpected election.

The Labour party has positioned itself clearly against any return to the EU and has, in so doing, diluted the clear blue water separating Labour from Conservative policy on that essential matter.

Might the Liberal Democrats gain from their position as the clear vehicle for affording a review of relations with the EU amongst any continuing Remainers?

The position of UKIP voters seems unclear. Assumed by some commentators to be absorbed into the Conservative fold once their primary role (in securing Brexit) had been fulfilled, the PM's wobble might result in UKIP having some, modest, resilience in their voter base seeking continuing influence on forthcoming Brexit negotiations.

Certainly an absolute collapse in the UKIP vote is not as likely as it was earlier in the campaign when Mrs. May seemed to be unassailably in the ascendancy.

Off-stage Nigel Farage seems to have an eye on the European Convention on Human Rights.

Current/recent polls seem to offer anything from a 100 seat Conservative majority to a hung parliament.

It really is exceptionally difficult to discern any concluding picture from the many paint pots and brushstrokes currently in the mix.

Whether traditional media allegiances are reinforcing conceptions in the way they would wish amongst readerships or antagonising beyond their assumed voter base also seems less of a reliable factor with social media loose amongst the fray.

Perhaps the most likely change in voting (though whether this is a known unknown or an unknown unknown I can't fathom) will be in an increase in the Green vote and a surprising showing for the Labour party. An apparent increase in voter registration may fuel such a result though younger voters are certainly not always to be considered antithetical in perspective to voting Conservative or, indeed, UKIP.

The first-past-the-post system is unlikely to yield any staggering change in the Government's position. A significant spike in Green votes overall, for example, though I suspect very likely (based, in part, on local election pattern), may yield few Westminster seats in practice.

The distribution of Westminster seats amongst parties other than the Conservatives may shake out some unexpected moves.

However, it may be that, after all this 'dull chaos', a Conservative Government will be back within a seat or two of their 2015 position with a modest majority possibly enhanced with a few Westminster seats gained by Scottish Conservative candidates.

What impact the distribution of seats will have on consequent law making in the 2017 Westminster parliament is likely to be far from dull.

But there may be chaos.

 

Barnhill, Jura. June 2015. (Thanks to the kindness of the Fletcher family).

Leaders' Debate the plot thickens

In the immediate aftermath of the Leaders' Debate shown on BBC TV this evening a number of tweets on the related Twitter response thread and Nigel Farage on his extended LBC radio show suggest that the BBC has selected an audience that was biased.

Worse bias than the equivalent TV debate in 2015 said Mr. Farage.