Personal Blogs

It seems that geopolitical issues are sometimes too simplified.

If country A attacks country B, don't be surprised to see country B responding to this attack. Country B represents, for example, Israel and Ukraine. 

Such an issue cannot be solved in a few weeks or months. Trauma and security issues are important. 

There are many historical mistakes. We must rebuild stone after stone our country, and give the will to live together in a peaceful world.

I still do not understand why we do not talk about federalism in different regions worldwide, such as in Israel.

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Opinion | Preparing for the first Passover Seder since the Oct. 7 attack on Israel - The Washington Post

Greece and Spain under pressure to provide Ukraine with air defence systems (ft.com)

Ukraine is the front line of a much larger conflict (ft.com)

Federalism in the Middle East: A Collection of Essays | Lawfare (lawfaremedia.org)

Federalism and Decentralization in the Contemporary Middle East and North Africa - Federalism and Decentralization in the Contemporary Middle East and North Africa (cambridge.org)

How to stabilise a country after war

Is there any link between ISKP and Chechen? It is not published yet. We are in front of an international federation of terrorism with a unique target. There are rivalries inside those terrorist movements.

Chechnya’s ISIS Problem | The New Yorker

Islamic State - Khorasan Province — Project CRAAFT

Moscow concert hall attack: Why is ISIL targeting Russia? | ISIL/ISIS News | Al Jazeera

Financing Terror: the Islamic State in the Khorasan region - AOAV

The Role of Religion in Postconflict Syria | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

Examining Extremism: Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) | Examining Extremism | CSIS

South Asian Security in Peril: Unmasking the Threat of ISKP's Shadow - Policy Watcher

Islamic State Khorasan Province Is a Growing Threat in Afghanistan and Beyond – The Diplomat

Risks are not only geographical but also financial and economic.

Risk mapping = classification => identification => measurement => assessment => response

But there is something we should have analysed for decades. Russia has always been looking for access to a hot sea. The threat is not new. Every single European country should use such technology.

Defence CEO calls for Europe an version of Israel’s Iron Dome (ft.com)

Germany to buy Iron Dome-style air defense system from Israel – POLITICO

Germany unites 14 NATO countries to buy missile defense shield, much to the annoyance of France (lemonde.fr)

Romania Looks Set to Be First European Country to Buy Israel's Iron Dome - Israel News - Haaretz.com

Europe faces €56bn Nato defence spending hole (ft.com)

Christine Lagarde says ECB will not commit to path of rate cuts (ft.com)

Donald Trump’s betrayal of Ukraine (ft.com)

The world is not more divided than before the COVID-19 pandemic. People manage their lives differently. Perceptions and priorities change but the world is still divided into two parts: countries that support the US on one side and on the other side countries that support Russia. Nobody is indifferent.

The Divided World | Foreign Affairs

The Impact of the First World War on Strategy | Cairn International Edition (cairn-int.info)

A brief history of having cake and eating it – POLITICO

People in Advanced Economies Say Their Society Is More Divided Than Before Pandemic | Pew Research Center

Russia and China are united by an anti-American agenda. Are we in a new Cold War? - Vox

We Are Now in a Global Cold War – Foreign Policy

Are we entering another Cold War? Probably not—but it could be even worse | Harvard Kennedy School

The New Cold War: America, China, and the Echoes of History (foreignaffairs.com)

Could international investors have a major positive role in the actual international situation?

Who's the best? Politicians or Financials? What is the weight and influence of far-right and far-left parties on public opinion?

in 2012 Putin seeks to reassure foreign investors (ft.com)

in 2022, International investment implications of Russia’s war against Ukraine (abridged version) (oecd.org)

in 2022, How Putin Used Russia’s Sovereign Wealth Fund To Create A ‘State-Sponsored Oligarchy’ (forbes.com)

in 2023, Controlling the Narrative: A Roadmap to Russia's 2024 Presidential Election - Foreign Policy Research Institute (fpri.org)

in 2023, Putin signs law on barring 'unfriendly' foreigners from owning stakes in Russian firms, RIA reports | Reuters

in 2024, Germany blames individual error for Russia’s intercept of military call (ft.com)

Zara returns to Ukraine following 2-year closure  - https://on.ft.com/49x5g5W via @FT

in 2024, Stock Funds Rise 5.2% Thanks to ‘Magnificent Seven’ - WSJ

A Geopolitical Outlook for Investors in 2024 | Practical Law The Journal | Reuters

What can investors expect from 2024? (ft.com)

We note that threats are increasing from Russia, for example. But what type(s) of threat may the World live?

Physical threats are possible but they are not unique. They could be financial, economic, business, social, or religious.

Threats or instability do not use a unique and common way to reach their objective at the same time.

These are the biggest global risks we face in 2024 and beyond | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)

Geopolitical & economic outlook 2024: Instability in China and global security - Thomson Reuters Institute

Never believe Putin is unstoppable – after Navalny, this is how a new global opposition can bring him down | Masha Alekhina, Pussy Riot | The Guardian

Leaked Russian military files reveal criteria for nuclear strike (ft.com)*

Everyone needs to calm down’: experts assess Russian nuclear space threat | Russia | The Guardian

Should we think that the death of an opposition activist in the world means the end of a movement?

I would answer 'no.' 

Everything depends on who and how they support, their level of responsibilities, influences, and the number of supports in the world. Opposition must live. This is the only way to survive and evolve in the right way instead of destroying everything. The world is becoming more and more sectarian. People do not want to analyze the global and local consequences of their actions. 

It’s personal: the reaction to Steve Wright’s death is proof of the power of radio | Gillian Reynolds | The Guardian

Russians risk arrest to mourn Alexei Navalny with vigils and flowers (ft.com)

Alexei Navalny’s Death Marks End of Political Dissent in Russia - WSJ

Alexei Navalny, Russian opposition activist, 1976-2024 (ft.com)

Zelenskyy warns withholding arms to Ukraine jeopardises Nato security (ft.com)

Call to urgently revive Theresa May’s plan for EU-wide defence treaty | European Union | The Guardian

Unfortunately, risks do not appear one time a year during the Atlantic hurricane season, for example. 

Risks are in every sector and appear 24/7. Nothing/Nobody waits until Monday at 9 am to attack a private organization, a population, or an economy.

Investors Are Almost Always Wrong About the Fed on Interest Rates - WSJ

Frontline Ukrainian infantry units report acute shortage of soldiers - The Washington Post

World ‘not prepared’ for climate disasters after warmest ever January | Climate crisis | The Guardian

5 financial scams to watch out for in 2024 (cnbc.com)

2024 Fraud and Financial Crime Trends | Feedzai 

The liquidity risk management concept has often been minimized in analysis and forecasts. 

The role of banks helps this concept not to be put under light and other concepts such as commercial ones have taken precedence over liquidity risk management. Banks offer easy financial facilities and credit conditions to be able to stay active. Private organizations had relied on banks to stay active in the markets. The last financial crisis in 2008-2009 underlined the consequences of the use of excessive risk-taking policies. 

In that context, the liquidity reserve is low and cannot help to stay efficient and reactive in the industry markets. A financial spiral appears, and bankruptcy may be announced.

We could note this month that Hungary does not want to help Ukraine. They want to block a European Union four-year, €50bn aid package to Ukraine. Politic and geostrategic crises appear all over the world. 

At the same time, investments do not crash. What is the limit of the good health of investments?

Stock markets are in a sweet spot (ft.com)

EU must prevent sensitive assets from falling into ‘wrong hands’, warns Valdis Dombrovskis (ft.com)

Hungary vows to defy EU ‘blackmail’ over Ukraine funding (ft.com)

EU leaders meet again to sway Hungary’s Orbán over Ukraine aid - https://on.ft.com/3Oqafg7 via @FT 

Zelensky to oust Gen. Valery Zaluzhny amid tension over Ukraine mobilization - The Washington Post

It’s OK to be complacent about Red Sea economic risks  (ft.com)

The situation the world has lived in since the beginning of 2020 is unique because of the range, deep, speed and importance of the pandemic and of the ways of communication, and travelling. 

Consequences are in every sector, in every continent. The European Union has had to manage this non-financial crisis with the different national regulators. Each EU country has lived in a specific sanitarian situation. That provokes international financial instability in the private sector such as the general insurance one. 

I studied liquidity risk management done by European Union general insurance companies during this non-financial crisis for my dissertation. 

The COVID-19 crisis has developed negative and positive perspectives. It has provoked financial instability, the insurance sector had to manage its difficulties and the financial, health, and logistic difficulties of its customers. 

This crisis also opened opportunities, accelerated the digitalization evolution but also decreased variable charges and opened a new area of way to work and communication. This drives private organizations to maintain a significant amount of capital and liquidity. Liquidity is immediately available whereas capital is not. Private organizations have been surprised by the speed of this pandemic. 

The lack of liquidity had provoked bankruptcies and slowdown of activities. The ideal would “to be able to create a well-balanced between capital and liquidity so to allow companies to adapt themselves to situations.

Even if the global situation is better than in 2020, the general order stays fragile because of several actual and potential political strategies.

OECD Economic Outlook

How should we interpret the fact that many corporate leaders are misguided in playing down the risks of a second term for the Republican former president? Are there any risks? What sort of risks? What about the economy, environment, geostrategy, international relations and the evolution of conflicts? The program of each candidate gives us some of their intentions if they will follow them.

The USA has a very important role in the world. A wrong economic or diplomatic strategy, the will to create fractions would provoke a deep recession and inflation. Risks could come from the will to protect ourselves without thinking about the consequences. Whoever the future president will be, we will have to manage with him/her. The most important is not to forecast his/her name, but how, when and where to invest, how to manage an international organisation, and how to manage diplomacy, how to manage a crisis of confidence.

Wall Street’s bargain with Trump (ft.com)

I talked about financial and non-financial risks before. Unfortunately, several risks are always ready to appear again very quickly. There are financial and non-financial risks such as IT with cybersecurity, liquidity, market, credit, operational, strategic and reputational ones.

The actual international order shows us that we live in a sensitive situation but a not weak one. I mean that investments are positive. The number of jobless decreased in the US, for example, and the economic data underlines that the situation is strong.

I mean by sensitivity, a general order that can change due to a stupid change of mood of an influential politician, the will to become more or stay radical. Actions or the absence of actions can cause negative slippage. Everyone is not ready to improve a situation, if so, in which direction, with whom, and when.

Journalists do not always take the time to explain the origin of a situation, and the public requires immediate fresh and short news. How to explain a conflict that has existed for several decades in two lines? How to explain to the public that women and children are taken hostage to be used as terrorist infrastructure shields? The reputation risk appears.