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Helene Viel

Investors and the American election

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American elections approach. Crisis stays present all over the world.

What are the potential impacts of the presidential poll? Everything depends on the resentment of the people.

Will we feel secure? What is the real strategy of the two candidates? Are they reliable? The evolution and influences of their strategy are important and show us the way the world will take. Good or bad news. Let's see.

Defining Your Basic Investing Objectives: What to Factor in (investopedia.com)

Investment Objective Definition and Use in Financial Planning (thebalancemoney.com)

Companies rush to issue bonds to forestall market volatility ahead of US election (ft.com)

Investors are already bracing for the US elections (columbia.edu)

ElectionWatch 2024: UBS Road to the Election | UBS Global

The Investor’s Guide to Election Years: 2024 Edition (newyorklifeinvestments.com)

The Performance of US Equities in Election Years Over the Last Century (ssga.com)

2024 US elections and potential investment implications - Fullerton Fund Management

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Helene Viel

Are there any links?

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Edited by Helene Viel, Sunday, 24 Mar 2024, 14:13

Is there any link between ISKP and Chechen? It is not published yet. We are in front of an international federation of terrorism with a unique target. There are rivalries inside those terrorist movements.

Chechnya’s ISIS Problem | The New Yorker

Islamic State - Khorasan Province — Project CRAAFT

Moscow concert hall attack: Why is ISIL targeting Russia? | ISIL/ISIS News | Al Jazeera

Financing Terror: the Islamic State in the Khorasan region - AOAV

The Role of Religion in Postconflict Syria | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

Examining Extremism: Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) | Examining Extremism | CSIS

South Asian Security in Peril: Unmasking the Threat of ISKP's Shadow - Policy Watcher

Islamic State Khorasan Province Is a Growing Threat in Afghanistan and Beyond – The Diplomat

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Helene Viel

What profile?

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Edited by Helene Viel, Sunday, 24 Mar 2024, 12:32

Terrorist attack means questions about the profile of terrorists and victims when it appears, the day, the hour, the town/country, the revendication, the reactions in the world, and the capacity of trust.

Journalists present ISKP as an Afghan and South Asia terrorist group. Unfortunately, this group has spread terror all over the world for more than a decade.

Islamic State’s deadly Moscow attack highlights its fixation with Russia | Moscow concert hall attack | The Guardian

What is the Islamic State Khorasan Province? (economist.com)

Islamic State Khorasan: Global Jihad in a Multipolar World – The Diplomat


Islamic State-Khorasan’s Transition Into a Transregional Threat – The Diplomat

Why is the Islamic State group 'fixated' on Russia and what is ISIS-K? - ABC News

Global Risks Report 2023: the biggest risks facing the world | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)

2.2 Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) | European Union Agency for Asylum (europa.eu)

What we know about Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) | ISIL/ISIS News | Al Jazeera

ISKP’s Battle for Minds: What are its main messages and who do they attract? - Afghanistan Analysts Network - English (afghanistan-analysts.org)

The Islamic State in ‘Khorasan’: How it began and where it stands now in Nangarhar - Afghanistan Analysts Network - English (afghanistan-analysts.org)

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Helene Viel

How to?

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Risks are not only geographical but also financial and economic.

Risk mapping = classification => identification => measurement => assessment => response

But there is something we should have analysed for decades. Russia has always been looking for access to a hot sea. The threat is not new. Every single European country should use such technology.

Defence CEO calls for Europe an version of Israel’s Iron Dome (ft.com)

Germany to buy Iron Dome-style air defense system from Israel – POLITICO

Germany unites 14 NATO countries to buy missile defense shield, much to the annoyance of France (lemonde.fr)

Romania Looks Set to Be First European Country to Buy Israel's Iron Dome - Israel News - Haaretz.com

Europe faces €56bn Nato defence spending hole (ft.com)

Christine Lagarde says ECB will not commit to path of rate cuts (ft.com)

Donald Trump’s betrayal of Ukraine (ft.com)

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Helene Viel

What Future with what inflation?

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Edited by Helene Viel, Saturday, 16 Mar 2024, 16:14

People are talking about the wane of inflation, whether the inflation is rising or staying high. Strange phenomenon. 

We lived a financial crisis in the 2008's then a political instability from the 2014's and the COVID-19 pandemic in the 2020's.

The consequences of high-level inflation are not only on consumption but also on local elections. Far-right and far-left parties' influence is increasing, people move less often. Service industry is living financial issues. 

A second month of sticky inflation (ft.com)

US inflation rise to 3.2% highlights ‘last mile’ challenge for Federal Reserve (ft.com)

Global inflation and interest rates tracker: see how your country compares (ft.com) 

We’re on the brink of a polycrisis. How worried should we be? | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)

Summer 2022: Living in a state of multiple crises (europa.eu)

Living in a state of multiple crises: health, nature, climate, economy, or simply systemic unsustainability? — European Environment Agency (europa.eu)

Markets capitulate to Federal Reserve on interest rates after months-long stand-off

Trump and Ukraine - WSJ

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Helene Viel

Who wants a piece of the cake?

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Edited by Helene Viel, Sunday, 10 Mar 2024, 17:52

The world is not more divided than before the COVID-19 pandemic. People manage their lives differently. Perceptions and priorities change but the world is still divided into two parts: countries that support the US on one side and on the other side countries that support Russia. Nobody is indifferent.

The Divided World | Foreign Affairs

The Impact of the First World War on Strategy | Cairn International Edition (cairn-int.info)

A brief history of having cake and eating it – POLITICO

People in Advanced Economies Say Their Society Is More Divided Than Before Pandemic | Pew Research Center

Russia and China are united by an anti-American agenda. Are we in a new Cold War? - Vox

We Are Now in a Global Cold War – Foreign Policy

Are we entering another Cold War? Probably not—but it could be even worse | Harvard Kennedy School

The New Cold War: America, China, and the Echoes of History (foreignaffairs.com)

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Helene Viel

What's up?

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Elections are coming, pressures are increasing, bets and wishes are more and more visible, public opinion is becoming more refined.

Issues are geostrategic and political on one side and economic on the other side. Technology use and security become common unstable risks. But show must go on.

Ukraine’s counteroffensive against Russia in maps: latest updates (ft.com)

The Israel-Hamas war in maps: latest updates (ft.com)

Central bankers see victory within reach in push to tame inflation (ft.com)

Global inflation and interest rates tracker: see how your country compares (ft.com)

Can Joe Biden win back America? (ft.com)

‘Nothing redeemable in him’: Robert De Niro says he would never play Donald Trump | Robert De Niro | The Guardian

How five crucial elections in 2024 could shape climate action for decades (nature.com)

The Public’s Role in Politicizing International Issues: Why Multilateralism Needs to Take Public Opinion More Seriously | Global Perspectives | University of California Press (ucpress.edu)

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Helene Viel

Who are the pilots?

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Edited by Helene Viel, Thursday, 7 Mar 2024, 19:26

Could international investors have a major positive role in the actual international situation?

Who's the best? Politicians or Financials? What is the weight and influence of far-right and far-left parties on public opinion?

in 2012 Putin seeks to reassure foreign investors (ft.com)

in 2022, International investment implications of Russia’s war against Ukraine (abridged version) (oecd.org)

in 2022, How Putin Used Russia’s Sovereign Wealth Fund To Create A ‘State-Sponsored Oligarchy’ (forbes.com)

in 2023, Controlling the Narrative: A Roadmap to Russia's 2024 Presidential Election - Foreign Policy Research Institute (fpri.org)

in 2023, Putin signs law on barring 'unfriendly' foreigners from owning stakes in Russian firms, RIA reports | Reuters

in 2024, Germany blames individual error for Russia’s intercept of military call (ft.com)

Zara returns to Ukraine following 2-year closure  - https://on.ft.com/49x5g5W via @FT

in 2024, Stock Funds Rise 5.2% Thanks to ‘Magnificent Seven’ - WSJ

A Geopolitical Outlook for Investors in 2024 | Practical Law The Journal | Reuters

What can investors expect from 2024? (ft.com)

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Helene Viel

Let's stay online together

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At the opposite of the 20th century, the 21st century does not show that nuclear armament has a real deterrent. Weapons are more or less big but easily reach a local or regional target. 

I had the honor to be the European Correspondent for Shephard Press-UV Magazine for ten years. Technology allows us to do whatever, whenever, wherever we want, alone and with a team.

Ukraine, and then whose next? Italy, Spain, France, Belgium, Germany? Financial interests and/or physical attacks? The manipulation of Public opinion is the best first weapon to change a foreign policy, then the financial and economic interests to weaken a population, and then the physical attack if needed. 

We must stay strong. Happy Friday.

Uncrewed Vehicles | Shephard (shephardmedia.com)

Defence news and analysis | Shephard (shephardmedia.com)

Vladimir Putin warns of wider conflict over Ukraine (ft.com)

Flights from Moscow Sheremetyevo (SVO) (flightconnections.com)

Public opinion on the war in Ukraine (europa.eu)

My Country, Right or Wrong: Russian Public Opinion on Ukraine - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Russia and Putin Seen Negatively Worldwide, While Views of Zelensky and NATO More Mixed | Pew Research Center

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Helene Viel

What do instability/threat mean in 2024?

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Edited by Helene Viel, Thursday, 29 Feb 2024, 14:38

We note that threats are increasing from Russia, for example. But what type(s) of threat may the World live?

Physical threats are possible but they are not unique. They could be financial, economic, business, social, or religious.

Threats or instability do not use a unique and common way to reach their objective at the same time.

These are the biggest global risks we face in 2024 and beyond | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)

Geopolitical & economic outlook 2024: Instability in China and global security - Thomson Reuters Institute

Never believe Putin is unstoppable – after Navalny, this is how a new global opposition can bring him down | Masha Alekhina, Pussy Riot | The Guardian

Leaked Russian military files reveal criteria for nuclear strike (ft.com)*

Everyone needs to calm down’: experts assess Russian nuclear space threat | Russia | The Guardian

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Helene Viel

Where are we?

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Edited by Helene Viel, Saturday, 24 Feb 2024, 13:00
Tensions, such as terrorism, corruption, organized crimes, and pressures, have increased for several years. Ukraine has fought against the invasion of  Russia for two years. Terrorist groups and pressures are developing.

How to answer to pressure? The answer will depend on the culture of the 'victim.' The problem is the mix of the reaction of victims. There is no coalition, or consultation. So, the result is less efficient and creates rifts.

EU marks Ukraine invasion anniversary with fresh pledge of support (ft.com)

In ‘False Transit’ Loophole, Russia’s War Machine Is Supplied Through Kazakh Companies and Belarusian Warehouses - OCCRP

Russia defies U.S. sanctions and forecasts of doom for its economy - The Washington Post

Russia-Ukraine war live: western leaders visit Kyiv in solidarity on second anniversary of Russian invasion (theguardian.com)

Adelphi book launch - The Taming of Scarcity and the Problems of Plenty: Rethinking International Relations and American Grand Strategy in a New Era (iiss.org)
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Helene Viel

A permanent analysis

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Edited by Helene Viel, Sunday, 18 Feb 2024, 16:37

Should we think that the death of an opposition activist in the world means the end of a movement?

I would answer 'no.' 

Everything depends on who and how they support, their level of responsibilities, influences, and the number of supports in the world. Opposition must live. This is the only way to survive and evolve in the right way instead of destroying everything. The world is becoming more and more sectarian. People do not want to analyze the global and local consequences of their actions. 

It’s personal: the reaction to Steve Wright’s death is proof of the power of radio | Gillian Reynolds | The Guardian

Russians risk arrest to mourn Alexei Navalny with vigils and flowers (ft.com)

Alexei Navalny’s Death Marks End of Political Dissent in Russia - WSJ

Alexei Navalny, Russian opposition activist, 1976-2024 (ft.com)

Zelenskyy warns withholding arms to Ukraine jeopardises Nato security (ft.com)

Call to urgently revive Theresa May’s plan for EU-wide defence treaty | European Union | The Guardian

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Helene Viel

What strategy for what future

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As I said a few days ago, the program of politicians one day is not the most important. The vital points are historical connections, History, and psychology.

What's going on, if half of the world becomes dangerous and demagogue?

US allies condemn Trump’s ‘irresponsible’ remarks on Russia (ft.com)

Trump expected to attend court hearing for classified documents trial | Donald Trump | The Guardian

Republican NATO hawks wave the white flag to Trump’s provocations - The Washington Post

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Helene Viel

Risks persistence

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Unfortunately, risks do not appear one time a year during the Atlantic hurricane season, for example. 

Risks are in every sector and appear 24/7. Nothing/Nobody waits until Monday at 9 am to attack a private organization, a population, or an economy.


Investors Are Almost Always Wrong About the Fed on Interest Rates - WSJ

Frontline Ukrainian infantry units report acute shortage of soldiers - The Washington Post

World ‘not prepared’ for climate disasters after warmest ever January | Climate crisis | The Guardian

5 financial scams to watch out for in 2024 (cnbc.com)

2024 Fraud and Financial Crime Trends | Feedzai 

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Helene Viel

New blog post

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Edited by Helene Viel, Monday, 5 Feb 2024, 17:01

The COVID-19 pandemic has transformed our way of working, managing issues, writing contracts, and negotiating. COVID-19 has nothing to do with a huge flood in a town or with the fire of a building. The scale, the propagation speed, and the length of damages are much more important. A pandemic cannot be controlled as easily as a local flood. A local flood can be contained, slowed down, and mainly controlled. The impact is local. The COVID-19 pandemic is international, it cannot be easily contained or slowed down even if countries decide to put into place lockdowns. The evolution is variable depending on the season and the region in the world.

Managing financial performance and staying financially stable and viable for corporate, professional, and individual customers and investors have always been their main preoccupations.

The crisis due to the pandemic has increased the liquidity risk to businesses and their partners.

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Helene Viel

The liquidity risk management, What else?

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The liquidity risk management concept has often been minimized in analysis and forecasts. 

The role of banks helps this concept not to be put under light and other concepts such as commercial ones have taken precedence over liquidity risk management. Banks offer easy financial facilities and credit conditions to be able to stay active. Private organizations had relied on banks to stay active in the markets. The last financial crisis in 2008-2009 underlined the consequences of the use of excessive risk-taking policies. 

In that context, the liquidity reserve is low and cannot help to stay efficient and reactive in the industry markets. A financial spiral appears, and bankruptcy may be announced.

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Helene Viel

An uncertain balance movement

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Edited by Helene Viel, Sunday, 4 Feb 2024, 14:58

When we check fresh news, we can be surprised by several political decisions. 

A politician presents his program, and his wishes, and then the same program is radically modified from D-Day, less open to the world or more than expected. Ties reappear. 

Politician alliances appear with a certain logic if you are good at psychology, finance/economy, and geostrategy. The future is forecastable.

Viktor Orbán: what is the endgame for Europe’s chief disrupter? (ft.com)

Viktor Orbán's anti-woke resistance has made him the 'splinter under the fingernail' of the EU (msn.com)

Putin and Orban reaffirm Russian-Hungarian ties amid international strains | Reuters

Ukraine’s Fate and Europe’s Future: A View from Sweden (iiss.org)

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Helene Viel

What if...

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Edited by Helene Viel, Thursday, 1 Feb 2024, 06:53

We could note this month that Hungary does not want to help Ukraine. They want to block a European Union four-year, €50bn aid package to Ukraine. Politic and geostrategic crises appear all over the world. 

At the same time, investments do not crash. What is the limit of the good health of investments?

Stock markets are in a sweet spot (ft.com)

EU must prevent sensitive assets from falling into ‘wrong hands’, warns Valdis Dombrovskis (ft.com)

Hungary vows to defy EU ‘blackmail’ over Ukraine funding (ft.com)

EU leaders meet again to sway Hungary’s Orbán over Ukraine aid - https://on.ft.com/3Oqafg7 via @FT 

Zelensky to oust Gen. Valery Zaluzhny amid tension over Ukraine mobilization - The Washington Post

It’s OK to be complacent about Red Sea economic risks  (ft.com)

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Helene Viel

Who's Who

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Edited by Helene Viel, Saturday, 27 Jan 2024, 18:20

Investors and economists are reinforcing the global order. How to forecast the financial market, the bond market? How to anticipate risks? Which risks?

The actual problem is to be sure about political programs all over the world. Trump, for example, wants to fight against Chinese importation to promote American employment. Unfortunately, he does not consider world economic consequences, global trade, and the reactions of customers and investors. 

We cannot be naive or present basic ideas without any strong, realistic, and financial base, to win an election. We cannot say 'I am not interested in others. I don't care.' 

Every local action has international consequences in 2024.

The Most Important Man in Finance You’ve Never Heard Of - WSJ

We are all hypocrites on corporate governance (ft.com)

AI Will Transform the Global Economy. Let’s Make Sure It Benefits Humanity. (imf.org)

Trump eyes massive escalation in economic war with China - The Washington Post

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Helene Viel

Happy Friday

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Edited by Helene Viel, Friday, 26 Jan 2024, 17:13

The situation the world has lived in since the beginning of 2020 is unique because of the range, deep, speed and importance of the pandemic and of the ways of communication, and travelling. 

Consequences are in every sector, in every continent. The European Union has had to manage this non-financial crisis with the different national regulators. Each EU country has lived in a specific sanitarian situation. That provokes international financial instability in the private sector such as the general insurance one. 

I studied liquidity risk management done by European Union general insurance companies during this non-financial crisis for my dissertation. 

The COVID-19 crisis has developed negative and positive perspectives. It has provoked financial instability, the insurance sector had to manage its difficulties and the financial, health, and logistic difficulties of its customers. 

This crisis also opened opportunities, accelerated the digitalization evolution but also decreased variable charges and opened a new area of way to work and communication. This drives private organizations to maintain a significant amount of capital and liquidity. Liquidity is immediately available whereas capital is not. Private organizations have been surprised by the speed of this pandemic. 

The lack of liquidity had provoked bankruptcies and slowdown of activities. The ideal would “to be able to create a well-balanced between capital and liquidity so to allow companies to adapt themselves to situations.

Even if the global situation is better than in 2020, the general order stays fragile because of several actual and potential political strategies.

OECD Economic Outlook

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Helene Viel

A fragile international economy

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Edited by Helene Viel, Wednesday, 24 Jan 2024, 18:34

Countries present different economic strategies such as cutting bank reserve ratio for China. That will allow to boost growth. Others, such as the UK, prefer focusing on reducing inflation and cutting interest rates, for example. 

Reducing inflation does not mean that consumption will increase and the number of jobless will decrease. Investors are looking for positive results and long-term confidence. Pressures are in every sector at the international, regional, and local levels.

China cuts bank reserve ratio to boost growth as sentiment sours (ft.com)

Five charts explaining the UK’s economic prospects in 2024 | Economics | The Guardian

UK has lacked coherent economic strategy for years, thinktank finds | Economic policy | The Guardian

Home page - OECD

United Kingdom’s Long-Run Prosperity Hinges on Ambitious Reforms (imf.org)

US Economics Analyst: 2024 US Economic Outlook: Final Descent (goldmansachs.com)

7 economic trends to watch in 2024 | Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR)

Italy should boost investment, strengthen ongoing civil justice and competition reforms, and tackle public debt - OECD

Economy (tandfonline.com)

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Helene Viel

What next?

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Edited by Helene Viel, Wednesday, 24 Jan 2024, 15:17

How should we interpret the fact that many corporate leaders are misguided in playing down the risks of a second term for the Republican former president? Are there any risks? What sort of risks? What about the economy, environment, geostrategy, international relations and the evolution of conflicts? The program of each candidate gives us some of their intentions if they will follow them.

The USA has a very important role in the world. A wrong economic or diplomatic strategy, the will to create fractions would provoke a deep recession and inflation. Risks could come from the will to protect ourselves without thinking about the consequences. Whoever the future president will be, we will have to manage with him/her. The most important is not to forecast his/her name, but how, when and where to invest, how to manage an international organisation, and how to manage diplomacy, how to manage a crisis of confidence.

Wall Street’s bargain with Trump (ft.com)

Realism About a Trump Presidency - WSJ

New tools to reinforce the EU’s economic security - European Commission (europa.eu)

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Helene Viel

The risky sexy AI and Data Science

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Edited by Helene Viel, Sunday, 21 Jan 2024, 21:26
Do we have to live with AI? What are the limits? Are there limits? What about Ethics?

We want to work quickly, and better. We also want to invest income in the right areas. It is always valuable for employees not to do basic tasks. The main issue is not about how to train employees but how many IT issues your organisation will have per day or week, how you will manage them, and what about the perception of this organisation from your customers and consumers.

Is data science always intuitive?

The AI represents a new positive evolution and a new risk. The risk of making wrong choices and letting a machine choose for us is important. A machine must help us to find information and then synthesise it to make the right decision, for example. What are the objectives? What for?

The result is double. We stop wasting time with non-essential steps but the risk is from more IT bugs, frauds, security questions, and a bad reputation. What to do in case of a bug? Can an employee act? What will be the delay of action? Commerce innovation is increased. The answer is given by a good global strategy.

We must think of an issue, not stop analysing a problem. Are call centres worse than AI? It happens.

Punk Rock, the Peace Movement, and Open-Source AI: The Mozilla Foundation’s Mark Surman - MIT Sloan Management Review

Five Key Trends in AI and Data Science for 2024 - MIT Sloan Management Review


n ba

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Helene Viel

Underlying risks

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Edited by Helene Viel, Thursday, 18 Jan 2024, 18:41

I talked about financial and non-financial risks before. Unfortunately, several risks are always ready to appear again very quickly. There are financial and non-financial risks such as IT with cybersecurity, liquidity, market, credit, operational, strategic and reputational ones.

The actual international order shows us that we live in a sensitive situation but a not weak one. I mean that investments are positive. The number of jobless decreased in the US, for example, and the economic data underlines that the situation is strong.

I mean by sensitivity, a general order that can change due to a stupid change of mood of an influential politician, the will to become more or stay radical. Actions or the absence of actions can cause negative slippage. Everyone is not ready to improve a situation, if so, in which direction, with whom, and when.

Journalists do not always take the time to explain the origin of a situation, and the public requires immediate fresh and short news. How to explain a conflict that has existed for several decades in two lines? How to explain to the public that women and children are taken hostage to be used as terrorist infrastructure shields? The reputation risk appears.

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Helene Viel

A slide towards the delirious

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Edited by Helene Viel, Wednesday, 17 Jan 2024, 18:58

There are two ways to manage a supposed 'local' conflict:

- you consider a conflict as a local one and decide not to act. The risk is that you let a movement grow and reinforce without surveillance. You will be attacked in the next few years at the commercial, financial, and economic levels and sometimes at the security level.

- you consider that local conflicts do not exist. The world has always connections, supports, and an opinion about a conflict, you act to stop the spread. Even if a crisis may appear. We must act to live in a well-balanced world. Let's try all together.

Houthis attacked in the Red Sea is not a local conflict. Before the USA and the UK intervened, this movement was international. The conflict does not become international because of the USA and the UK. 

'The Pan-Arabist government, meanwhile, attempted to accelerate an ongoing alignment of the Zaydī sect with modern trends in Sunni exegesis.' There is always a conflict between Shiite and Sunni movements. Houthis support Hamas supported by Iran, supported by Russia.

Pakistan had been attacked this morning by Iran. 'Pakistan says attacks killed two children in ‘unprovoked violation’ of its airspace. Iran (Shiite) strikes Sunny militant bases in Pakistan.' Russia, Belarus, North Korea, and China are not far. Belarus declared this week that we must change the rules to use nuclear weapons. They want to be closer to Russia. Russia has always wanted access to warm seas. 

The access to the Red Sea is complicated. A map explains the problem. Commercial traffic has been highly risky for several years. Then, how to import goods from Asia to Europe if you cannot use it this way by cargo ship? You have to circumnavigate Africa. This is too long, too expensive. This issue has existed for decades. Terrorist movements use false arguments to develop their doctrine. More than 20 countries support the US in that decision.

Iran strikes ‘militant bases’ in Pakistan in latest Middle East flashpoint | Iran | The Guardian

Houthi movement | Yemen, History, Leader, & Goals | Britannica

What is the Red Sea crisis and what are the global implications? - ABC News

Red Sea Rivalries: A Conflict of Interests - Narrated by David Strathairn - Full Episode (youtube.com)

What is U.S.-led Red Sea coalition and which countries are backing it? | Reuters

Russia-Ukraine war live: Protesters clash with Russian police after activist jailed; Ukraine plans to ‘throw Russia from skies’, says minister (theguardian.com)

Letter from the editor: a testing year for democracy  (ft.com)

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