Allow me to share an interesting interview with Ambassador Julianne Smith:
Personal Blogs
Forgive me but I do not understand how people vote.
How can somebody choose a candidate without reading his/her full program? What about the international and national consequences?
Politics is a global management. We can't ignore one side of our life: international relations, economics, social care/welfare, security, environment, agriculture, justice, defence, culture, education, unemployment rate.
Everybody has the right to support a population. But we cannot mix a country with the strategy a Prime Minister chose.
Don't forget that a lot of Palestinians support Israel and know terrorist groups manipulate them. They are not free. We should help them to choose.
Don't forget who finances pro-Hamas students. Iran is very active. They finance far-left groups and give scholarships in the US, the UK and Europe.
So, Iran has a terrorist strategy and does not want to help any population.
We could fight against a political party, a plan but not a country. Racism and antisemitism destroy every hope.
Iran University Offers Scholarships to Expelled US Students (newsweek.com)
Iran’s interests are trumping the Palestinian tragedy (ft.com)
Iran Celebrates Pro-Palestinian Protests Spreading Across US Colleges (msn.com)
Iran leader urges Muslim states to back Palestinians militarily, financially | Reuters
Iranians see both sides of the Israel-Gaza conflict
What is behind US college protests over Israel-Gaza war? | Reuters
The secret history of Students for Justice in Palestine – The Forward
Mona Jafarian Explores the Hamas-Iran Connection and Its Impact on Regional Stability (youtube.com)
We note the consequences of the delay in sending assistance to Ukraine. Russia is gaining ground in Ukraine.
Don’t just assume Trump will back Russia, says Polish foreign minister – POLITICO
Russia Seizes Villages, Exploiting Advantage Gained From Ukraine’s Long Wait for Western Aid - WSJ
Opinion | If Ukraine falls to Russia, Moldova knows it’s next - The Washington Post
Western banks in Russia paid €800mn in taxes to Kremlin last year (ft.com)
Russian GPS jamming threatens air disaster, warn Baltic ministers (ft.com)
How Europe solved its Russian gas problem (ft.com)
It seems that geopolitical issues are sometimes too simplified.
If country A attacks country B, don't be surprised to see country B responding to this attack. Country B represents, for example, Israel and Ukraine.
Such an issue cannot be solved in a few weeks or months. Trauma and security issues are important.
There are many historical mistakes. We must rebuild stone after stone our country, and give the will to live together in a peaceful world.
I still do not understand why we do not talk about federalism in different regions worldwide, such as in Israel.
.
Greece and Spain under pressure to provide Ukraine with air defence systems (ft.com)
Ukraine is the front line of a much larger conflict (ft.com)
Federalism in the Middle East: A Collection of Essays | Lawfare (lawfaremedia.org)
What are the potential impacts of the presidential poll? Everything depends on the resentment of the people.
Will we feel secure? What is the real strategy of the two candidates? Are they reliable? The evolution and influences of their strategy are important and show us the way the world will take. Good or bad news. Let's see.
Defining Your Basic Investing Objectives: What to Factor in (investopedia.com)
Investment Objective Definition and Use in Financial Planning (thebalancemoney.com)
Companies rush to issue bonds to forestall market volatility ahead of US election (ft.com)
Investors are already bracing for the US elections (columbia.edu)
ElectionWatch 2024: UBS Road to the Election | UBS Global
The Investor’s Guide to Election Years: 2024 Edition (newyorklifeinvestments.com)
The Performance of US Equities in Election Years Over the Last Century (ssga.com)
2024 US elections and potential investment implications - Fullerton Fund Management
Is there any link between ISKP and Chechen? It is not published yet. We are in front of an international federation of terrorism with a unique target. There are rivalries inside those terrorist movements.
Chechnya’s ISIS Problem | The New Yorker
Islamic State - Khorasan Province — Project CRAAFT
Moscow concert hall attack: Why is ISIL targeting Russia? | ISIL/ISIS News | Al Jazeera
Financing Terror: the Islamic State in the Khorasan region - AOAV
The Role of Religion in Postconflict Syria | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
Examining Extremism: Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) | Examining Extremism | CSIS
South Asian Security in Peril: Unmasking the Threat of ISKP's Shadow - Policy Watcher
Islamic State Khorasan Province Is a Growing Threat in Afghanistan and Beyond – The Diplomat
Terrorist attack means questions about the profile of terrorists and victims when it appears, the day, the hour, the town/country, the revendication, the reactions in the world, and the capacity of trust.
Journalists present ISKP as an Afghan and South Asia terrorist group. Unfortunately, this group has spread terror all over the world for more than a decade.
What is the Islamic State Khorasan Province? (economist.com)
Islamic State Khorasan: Global Jihad in a Multipolar World – The Diplomat
Islamic State-Khorasan’s Transition Into a Transregional Threat – The Diplomat
Why is the Islamic State group 'fixated' on Russia and what is ISIS-K? - ABC News
Global Risks Report 2023: the biggest risks facing the world | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
2.2 Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) | European Union Agency for Asylum (europa.eu)
What we know about Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) | ISIL/ISIS News | Al Jazeera
Risks are not only geographical but also financial and economic.
Risk mapping = classification => identification => measurement => assessment => response
But there is something we should have analysed for decades. Russia has always been looking for access to a hot sea. The threat is not new. Every single European country should use such technology.
Defence CEO calls for Europe an version of Israel’s Iron Dome (ft.com)
Germany to buy Iron Dome-style air defense system from Israel – POLITICO
Romania Looks Set to Be First European Country to Buy Israel's Iron Dome - Israel News - Haaretz.com
Europe faces €56bn Nato defence spending hole (ft.com)
Christine Lagarde says ECB will not commit to path of rate cuts (ft.com)
Donald Trump’s betrayal of Ukraine (ft.com)
People are talking about the wane of inflation, whether the inflation is rising or staying high. Strange phenomenon.
We lived a financial crisis in the 2008's then a political instability from the 2014's and the COVID-19 pandemic in the 2020's.
The consequences of high-level inflation are not only on consumption but also on local elections. Far-right and far-left parties' influence is increasing, people move less often. Service industry is living financial issues.
A second month of sticky inflation (ft.com)
US inflation rise to 3.2% highlights ‘last mile’ challenge for Federal Reserve (ft.com)
Global inflation and interest rates tracker: see how your country compares (ft.com)
We’re on the brink of a polycrisis. How worried should we be? | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
Summer 2022: Living in a state of multiple crises (europa.eu)
Markets capitulate to Federal Reserve on interest rates after months-long stand-off
The world is not more divided than before the COVID-19 pandemic. People manage their lives differently. Perceptions and priorities change but the world is still divided into two parts: countries that support the US on one side and on the other side countries that support Russia. Nobody is indifferent.
The Divided World | Foreign Affairs
The Impact of the First World War on Strategy | Cairn International Edition (cairn-int.info)
A brief history of having cake and eating it – POLITICO
Russia and China are united by an anti-American agenda. Are we in a new Cold War? - Vox
We Are Now in a Global Cold War – Foreign Policy
Are we entering another Cold War? Probably not—but it could be even worse | Harvard Kennedy School
The New Cold War: America, China, and the Echoes of History (foreignaffairs.com)
Elections are coming, pressures are increasing, bets and wishes are more and more visible, public opinion is becoming more refined.
Issues are geostrategic and political on one side and economic on the other side. Technology use and security become common unstable risks. But show must go on.
Ukraine’s counteroffensive against Russia in maps: latest updates (ft.com)The Israel-Hamas war in maps: latest updates (ft.com)
Central bankers see victory within reach in push to tame inflation (ft.com)
Global inflation and interest rates tracker: see how your country compares (ft.com)
Can Joe Biden win back America? (ft.com)
‘Nothing redeemable in him’: Robert De Niro says he would never play Donald Trump | Robert De Niro | The Guardian
How five crucial elections in 2024 could shape climate action for decades (nature.com)
The Public’s Role in Politicizing International Issues: Why Multilateralism Needs to Take Public Opinion More Seriously | Global Perspectives | University of California Press (ucpress.edu)
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Could international investors have a major positive role in the actual international situation?
Who's the best? Politicians or Financials? What is the weight and influence of far-right and far-left parties on public opinion?
in 2012 Putin seeks to reassure foreign investors (ft.com)
in 2022, International investment implications of Russia’s war against Ukraine (abridged version) (oecd.org)
in 2022, How Putin Used Russia’s Sovereign Wealth Fund To Create A ‘State-Sponsored Oligarchy’ (forbes.com)
in 2024, Germany blames individual error for Russia’s intercept of military call (ft.com)
Zara returns to Ukraine following 2-year closure - https://on.ft.com/49x5g5W via @FT
in 2024, Stock Funds Rise 5.2% Thanks to ‘Magnificent Seven’ - WSJ
A Geopolitical Outlook for Investors in 2024 | Practical Law The Journal | Reuters
What can investors expect from 2024? (ft.com)
At the opposite of the 20th century, the 21st century does not show that nuclear armament has a real deterrent. Weapons are more or less big but easily reach a local or regional target.
I had the honor to be the European Correspondent for Shephard Press-UV Magazine for ten years. Technology allows us to do whatever, whenever, wherever we want, alone and with a team.
Ukraine, and then whose next? Italy, Spain, France, Belgium, Germany? Financial interests and/or physical attacks? The manipulation of Public opinion is the best first weapon to change a foreign policy, then the financial and economic interests to weaken a population, and then the physical attack if needed.
We must stay strong. Happy Friday.
Uncrewed Vehicles | Shephard (shephardmedia.com)
Defence news and analysis | Shephard (shephardmedia.com)
Vladimir Putin warns of wider conflict over Ukraine (ft.com)
Flights from Moscow Sheremetyevo (SVO) (flightconnections.com)
Public opinion on the war in Ukraine (europa.eu)
We note that threats are increasing from Russia, for example. But what type(s) of threat may the World live?
Physical threats are possible but they are not unique. They could be financial, economic, business, social, or religious.
Threats or instability do not use a unique and common way to reach their objective at the same time.
These are the biggest global risks we face in 2024 and beyond | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
Leaked Russian military files reveal criteria for nuclear strike (ft.com)*
Everyone needs to calm down’: experts assess Russian nuclear space threat | Russia | The Guardian
How to answer to pressure? The answer will depend on the culture of the 'victim.' The problem is the mix of the reaction of victims. There is no coalition, or consultation. So, the result is less efficient and creates rifts.
![](https://learn1.open.ac.uk/mod/oublog/pluginfile.php/15/mod_oublog/message/281534/IMG-20131102-00645.jpg)
EU marks Ukraine invasion anniversary with fresh pledge of support (ft.com)
In ‘False Transit’ Loophole, Russia’s War Machine Is Supplied Through Kazakh Companies and Belarusian Warehouses - OCCRP
Russia defies U.S. sanctions and forecasts of doom for its economy - The Washington Post
Russia-Ukraine war live: western leaders visit Kyiv in solidarity on second anniversary of Russian invasion (theguardian.com)
Adelphi book launch - The Taming of Scarcity and the Problems of Plenty: Rethinking International Relations and American Grand Strategy in a New Era (iiss.org)
Should we think that the death of an opposition activist in the world means the end of a movement?
I would answer 'no.'
Everything depends on who and how they support, their level of responsibilities, influences, and the number of supports in the world. Opposition must live. This is the only way to survive and evolve in the right way instead of destroying everything. The world is becoming more and more sectarian. People do not want to analyze the global and local consequences of their actions.
Russians risk arrest to mourn Alexei Navalny with vigils and flowers (ft.com)
Alexei Navalny’s Death Marks End of Political Dissent in Russia - WSJ
Alexei Navalny, Russian opposition activist, 1976-2024 (ft.com)
Zelenskyy warns withholding arms to Ukraine jeopardises Nato security (ft.com)
As I said a few days ago, the program of politicians one day is not the most important. The vital points are historical connections, History, and psychology.
What's going on, if half of the world becomes dangerous and demagogue?
US allies condemn Trump’s ‘irresponsible’ remarks on Russia (ft.com)
Trump expected to attend court hearing for classified documents trial | Donald Trump | The Guardian
Republican NATO hawks wave the white flag to Trump’s provocations - The Washington Post
Unfortunately, risks do not appear one time a year during the Atlantic hurricane season, for example.
Risks are in every sector and appear 24/7. Nothing/Nobody waits until Monday at 9 am to attack a private organization, a population, or an economy.
Investors Are Almost Always Wrong About the Fed on Interest Rates - WSJ
Frontline Ukrainian infantry units report acute shortage of soldiers - The Washington Post
The COVID-19 pandemic has transformed our way of working, managing issues, writing contracts, and negotiating. COVID-19 has nothing to do with a huge flood in a town or with the fire of a building. The scale, the propagation speed, and the length of damages are much more important. A pandemic cannot be controlled as easily as a local flood. A local flood can be contained, slowed down, and mainly controlled. The impact is local. The COVID-19 pandemic is international, it cannot be easily contained or slowed down even if countries decide to put into place lockdowns. The evolution is variable depending on the season and the region in the world.
Managing financial performance and staying financially stable and viable for corporate, professional, and individual customers and investors have always been their main preoccupations.The crisis due to the pandemic has increased the liquidity risk to businesses and their partners.
The liquidity risk management concept has often been minimized in analysis and forecasts.
The role of banks helps this concept not to be put under light and other concepts such as commercial ones have taken precedence over liquidity risk management. Banks offer easy financial facilities and credit conditions to be able to stay active. Private organizations had relied on banks to stay active in the markets. The last financial crisis in 2008-2009 underlined the consequences of the use of excessive risk-taking policies.
In that context, the liquidity reserve is low and cannot help to stay efficient and reactive in the industry markets. A financial spiral appears, and bankruptcy may be announced.
When we check fresh news, we can be surprised by several political decisions.
A politician presents his program, and his wishes, and then the same program is radically modified from D-Day, less open to the world or more than expected. Ties reappear.
Politician alliances appear with a certain logic if you are good at psychology, finance/economy, and geostrategy. The future is forecastable.
Viktor Orbán: what is the endgame for Europe’s chief disrupter? (ft.com)
Putin and Orban reaffirm Russian-Hungarian ties amid international strains | Reuters
Ukraine’s Fate and Europe’s Future: A View from Sweden (iiss.org)
We could note this month that Hungary does not want to help Ukraine. They want to block a European Union four-year, €50bn aid package to Ukraine. Politic and geostrategic crises appear all over the world.
At the same time, investments do not crash. What is the limit of the good health of investments?
Stock markets are in a sweet spot (ft.com)
EU must prevent sensitive assets from falling into ‘wrong hands’, warns Valdis Dombrovskis (ft.com)
Hungary vows to defy EU ‘blackmail’ over Ukraine funding (ft.com)
EU leaders meet again to sway Hungary’s Orbán over Ukraine aid - https://on.ft.com/3Oqafg7 via @FT
Zelensky to oust Gen. Valery Zaluzhny amid tension over Ukraine mobilization - The Washington Post
It’s OK to be complacent about Red Sea economic risks (ft.com)
Investors and economists are reinforcing the global order. How to forecast the financial market, the bond market? How to anticipate risks? Which risks?
The actual problem is to be sure about political programs all over the world. Trump, for example, wants to fight against Chinese importation to promote American employment. Unfortunately, he does not consider world economic consequences, global trade, and the reactions of customers and investors.
We cannot be naive or present basic ideas without any strong, realistic, and financial base, to win an election. We cannot say 'I am not interested in others. I don't care.'
Every local action has international consequences in 2024.
The Most Important Man in Finance You’ve Never Heard Of - WSJ
We are all hypocrites on corporate governance (ft.com)
AI Will Transform the Global Economy. Let’s Make Sure It Benefits Humanity. (imf.org)
Trump eyes massive escalation in economic war with China - The Washington Post
The situation the world has lived in since the beginning of 2020 is unique because of the range, deep, speed and importance of the pandemic and of the ways of communication, and travelling.
Consequences are in every sector, in every continent. The European Union has had to manage this non-financial crisis with the different national regulators. Each EU country has lived in a specific sanitarian situation. That provokes international financial instability in the private sector such as the general insurance one.
I studied liquidity risk management done by European Union general insurance companies during this non-financial crisis for my dissertation.
The COVID-19 crisis has developed negative and positive perspectives. It has provoked financial instability, the insurance sector had to manage its difficulties and the financial, health, and logistic difficulties of its customers.
This crisis also opened opportunities, accelerated the digitalization evolution but also decreased variable charges and opened a new area of way to work and communication. This drives private organizations to maintain a significant amount of capital and liquidity. Liquidity is immediately available whereas capital is not. Private organizations have been surprised by the speed of this pandemic.
The lack of
liquidity had provoked bankruptcies and slowdown of activities. The ideal would
“to be able to create a well-balanced between capital and liquidity so to allow
companies to adapt themselves to situations.
Even if the global situation is better than in 2020, the general order stays fragile because of several actual and potential political strategies.
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