The news today is full of the story that David Cameron has announced that he has no wish to serve a third term as Prime Minister, and should he win this years general election, would then stand down after serving his second term.
Many people think he has made a huge mistake here. I'm not so sure. I think it could be quite a smart move on his part.
Of course, I cannot know why Cameron made his announcement, but I'd be really surprised if it just accidentally slipped out in an informal interview, as some are suggesting. Whatever you think of David Cameron (and trust me, there are plenty of things I think about him that I'm pretty sure he wouldn't find flattering), he's not stupid. I find it hard to believe he wouldn't have realised the attention that such an announcement would get and wouldn't have thought it through quite carefully.
So I'd like to present my theory about what's going on here. I have no evidence for this theory: it's just a hunch. But see what you think of it.
I think there is some quite smart psychology going on. What's the first thing you think of when you hear that Cameron will be standing down as Tory leader after another 5 years as PM? It may well be "will Boris replace him?" It may be "will it be before or after the 2020 general election"?
But there is an implicit assumption behind both those questions. That assumption is that he spends the 5 years between now and then as Prime Minister. That helps to reinforce the assumption in the minds of people hearing the announcement that the conservatives are going to win this year's election. It just normalises that idea, makes people think it's the natural way things should be.
Now, is it such a stretch to think that if people just accept that another 5 years of the Tories in power is the natural way of things, they're more likely to vote Tory?
I note the Labour party have been equally smart in their reply, and have immediately focused on questioning the assumption that he's going to win this year's election, and pointing out that his announcement is premature. I guess they don't want people accepting the assumption that the Tories are going to win the upcoming election.
It has been said that the announcement makes Cameron a weak leader. I really doubt that the ordinary voters outside the Westminster bubble care two hoots about that. I can't imagine that the risk of being seen as a weak leader will lose him any votes. Those who care about such things have probably already made up their mind which way they're going to vote. The announcement is aimed at the ordinary floating voter, who doesn't feel too engaged with politics, and might be happy just to go with the flow. If they think that the flow is a Tory victory at the 2015 election, well, maybe they'll just go along with it when they cast their vote.
Obviously only a tiny portion of the electorate would think like that. But remember that elections are decided by very small numbers of floating voters. If the announcement gains the Tories just a few votes, especially in marginal constituencies, it will have been successful.
One of the criticisms of Cameron's announcement is that he's made the same mistake Blair made in 2004 when he announced that he wouldn't serve another full term as PM.
Remember who won the 2005 election? Doesn't seem to me that Blair made any mistakes. And I don't think Cameron is making one either.