Personal Blogs

In the past week I've been reading 'The Bad Boys of Brexit: Tales of mischief, mayhem & guerrilla warfare in the EU referendum campaign' by Arron Banks, it's a fascinating book for so many reasons.

Firstly the book is something of a vanity project rushed out by Banks (and his ghostwriter Isabel Oakeshott) in the months following the referendum, but this means (albeit with a touch of bravado) it is contemporaneous , drawn from sources and doesn't have time to alter facts with through an historical looking glass. With that caveat in mind it has become a useful historical document.

Mr Banks was the founder of the influential Leave.EU campaign that sought (and failed to gain) designation as the official Leave campaign vehicle during the referendum, previously he had given a £1 million donation to UKIP after William Hague claimed not to know who he was. He's that sort of figure, some may claim petty, others proud and passionate.

Banks' book is now, a decade later, an historical document that clearly show an understanding of people and politics that far outstripped that of many political operatives and commentators. He understood a demographic group that was motivated to vote for Brexit, subequently for a Boris Johnson government, and every indictator points to the rise of Reform UK by 2029. With this in mind Banks' words were prescient.

For all of the tales of high-jinks in the book Mr Banks' epilgoue is wise: "Individuals like Trump and Farage have given a voice to people who feel ignored by the metropolitan class, with its group-think love of free markets and left-liberal values... We have only seen the beginning and we can only guess at how outsider poltics is going to end up revolutionising our country."

Mr Banks also astutely sums up Nigel Farage saying "For all the apparent bravura, he can be quite risk-averse."

For opponents of Reform UK, and I don't automatically count myself as one (although I am not a supporter either), this is worrying. It shows Mr Farage is politically considerate and astute, but it shows that there are those behind him who understand data, human emotion and take risks accordingly.

Mr Banks' book may yet become an important historic text.

Last month Reform UK adopted a new policy that would see indefinite leave to remain being scrapped for migrants. Perhaps the most controversial aspect of the policy was that the party would seek to change the rules for those already holding ILR status in the UK, demanding that in future a new application for the status be made every five years, with much higher thresholds for earnings and a better standard of English required.

In essence the controversy was not that Reform UK were planning to change the rules (although that is controversial enough), but that they were announcing changing the goalposts for those already here.

The only reason I highlight this now is because I've been reading Owen Bennett's 2015 book "Following Farage", a light hearted look at the rise of Mr Farage's first vehicle, UKIP up to and slightly after the party topping the poll at the 2014 European elections.

That book includes a chapter on the 2014 Rochester and Strood by-election, brought about when Tory MP Mark Reckless crossed the floor and, many would say, honourably called a by-election to reaffirm the support of his electorate.

It's fair to say that Mr Reckless was not as charismatic or respected as his colleague Douglas Carswell who had followed a similar path months earlier and when questioned about the rights of European citizens to remain in the UK following a long hypothecated In / Out referendum suggested that after a period of time they would be expected to return to their home countries. Effectively retrospectively changing the rules.

At that time Mr Farage couldn't have been clearer, rejecting the position of Reckless, saying "whilst I think it is madness to have an open door (policy).. anybody (who) has legally come to this country in good faith has every right to be here."

In reality, what does this suggest?

Whilst everyone has a right to change their mind and change policy it is clear that in this respect Mr Farage's views have changed, what it also suggests is that the Overton window of what was politically acceptable a decade ago has also moved significantly in that time.

In 2014 the thought of changing the rules and repatriating people here legally was unacceptable in the mainstream of politics, in 2025 it isn't.

It's just another way how things have changed.