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You arrogant arse, Cameron

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As the election campaign kicks off for real today, David Cameron has told us that we face a choice between him and Ed Miliband as the next Prime Minister.

What an arrogant thing to say. There is no fundamental law of the universe that says that the Tories and their mates in the Labour party have a divine right to take it in turns to rule over us. The choice of the next Prime Minister is up to the British voters, not up to David Cameron.

I'm not sure which makes me angrier. That Cameron takes the electorate for granted like this, or that the electorate will happily go along with it, voting for Labour and the Tories in their millions.

Permalink 1 comment (latest comment by William Konarzewski, Monday, 30 Mar 2015, 19:14)
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Why is Cameron announcing his departure?

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The news today is full of the story that David Cameron has announced that he has no wish to serve a third term as Prime Minister, and should he win this years general election, would then stand down after serving his second term.

Many people think he has made a huge mistake here. I'm not so sure. I think it could be quite a smart move on his part.

Of course, I cannot know why Cameron made his announcement, but I'd be really surprised if it just accidentally slipped out in an informal interview, as some are suggesting. Whatever you think of David Cameron (and trust me, there are plenty of things I think about him that I'm pretty sure he wouldn't find flattering), he's not stupid. I find it hard to believe he wouldn't have realised the attention that such an announcement would get and wouldn't have thought it through quite carefully.

So I'd like to present my theory about what's going on here. I have no evidence for this theory: it's just a hunch. But see what you think of it.

I think there is some quite smart psychology going on. What's the first thing you think of when you hear that Cameron will be standing down as Tory leader after another 5 years as PM? It may well be "will Boris replace him?" It may be "will it be before or after the 2020 general election"?

But there is an implicit assumption behind both those questions. That assumption is that he spends the 5 years between now and then as Prime Minister. That helps to reinforce the assumption in the minds of people hearing the announcement that the conservatives are going to win this year's election. It just normalises that idea, makes people think it's the natural way things should be.

Now, is it such a stretch to think that if people just accept that another 5 years of the Tories in power is the natural way of things, they're more likely to vote Tory?

I note the Labour party have been equally smart in their reply, and have immediately focused on questioning the assumption that he's going to win this year's election, and pointing out that his announcement is premature. I guess they don't want people accepting the assumption that the Tories are going to win the upcoming election.

It has been said that the announcement makes Cameron a weak leader. I really doubt that the ordinary voters outside the Westminster bubble care two hoots about that. I can't imagine that the risk of being seen as a weak leader will lose him any votes. Those who care about such things have probably already made up their mind which way they're going to vote. The announcement is aimed at the ordinary floating voter, who doesn't feel too engaged with politics, and might be happy just to go with the flow. If they think that the flow is a Tory victory at the 2015 election, well, maybe they'll just go along with it when they cast their vote.

Obviously only a tiny portion of the electorate would think like that. But remember that elections are decided by very small numbers of floating voters. If the announcement gains the Tories just a few votes, especially in marginal constituencies, it will have been successful.

One of the criticisms of Cameron's announcement is that he's made the same mistake Blair made in 2004 when he announced that he wouldn't serve another full term as PM.

Remember who won the 2005 election? Doesn't seem to me that Blair made any mistakes. And I don't think Cameron is making one either.

Permalink 1 comment (latest comment by Ruth Jenner, Tuesday, 24 Mar 2015, 08:38)
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Maria Miller's expenses

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There has been much talk recently of the fact that Maria Miller MP over-claimed about £90K on expenses, and thanks to the fact that her mates were in charge of discipline, all she had to do was to pay back just under £6K of it and issue a half-hearted apology. No criminal charges, no sacking, no proper consequences of any kind.

It goes without saying that if you or I swindled the taxpayer out of £90K, say through a fraudulent benefits claim or by under-declaring our income on our tax return, we'd probably be facing a prison sentence.

It seems that some people think it's unacceptable that Miller gets to keep her job, as well as the money.

Well, of course it's unacceptable, but it's also completely unsurprising that she's got away with it and that the Tory party leadership are as relaxed as they are about the whole thing.

Remember the 2009 expenses scandal? The political classes learned a valuable lesson from that.

That lesson was that they can fiddle their expenses as much as they like, and even if they get caught and get a slew of dreadful headlines in the press and a great feeling of anger against them, it doesn't matter.

Remember the 2010 election? The vast majority of votes went to Labour and the Tories, despite all their criminal behaviour over their expenses.

The lesson the political classes learned from the 2009 expenses scandal is that they don't have to give a shit. The plebs will keep voting for them anyway.

Permalink 1 comment (latest comment by Matt Hobbs, Monday, 7 Apr 2014, 11:15)
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Why is Ed Miliband coming out against an EU referendum?

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Ed Miliband, leader of the Labour Party, has just announced that there will be no referendum on Britain's EU membership if Labour win the 2015 election.

On the face of it, this seems surprising. I'm not aware of any good opinion poll data to back this up, but my impression is that while many voters probably don't care very much about EU membership, of those who have strong opinions on whether we should have a referendum, most think that we should have one.

This policy would therefore appear to have a risk of losing votes, and little prospect of gaining any. This is odd.

One possible explanation is that Miliband genuinely believes that it would be wrong to have a referendum and is acting on principle. I think we can rule that one out pretty quickly. Miliband is a career politician, and wouldn't know a principle if it came up and slapped him in the face with a wet fish. No, surely the real reason must be more calculating than that.

Another possibility is that I'm wrong about voters' opinions of a referendum. That is certainly a possibility: as I said, I'm not aware of any hard data to back up my hunch. However, I really would be very surprised if there were significant numbers of voters out there who strongly believed that it would be wrong to have a referendum on EU membership.

So here's my theory about why Miliband made the announcement he did. On the whole, the business community don't like the idea of a referendum. It creates uncertainty, which is always bad for business. My guess is that Miliband is thinking mainly about Labour Party finances. While I haven't been keeping up hugely with how they're doing, I'm pretty sure they're not in a good state, and the recent change to the rules about getting income from trade union membership will certainly not help.

By coming up with policies that will be welcomed by the business community, I suspect Miliband calculates that it will make his life easier when he is asking big businesses for donations to party funds.

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Innocent until proven guilty

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While listening to the radio this morning, I heard a debate in Parliament that filled me with despair. I don't think I can remember ever hearing anything that has made me think worse of the politicians who run this country, and that's saying something. Regular readers of this blog will be aware that I don't hold our politicians in high regard, and that in general I consider them to be a useless bunch of shits who are only interested in their own pockets and power bases.

The debate was about a terrorist suspect, Mohammed Ahmed Mohamed, who had recently escaped from the security services. Apparently, he is suspected of being a terrorist, though he has never been convicted of any terrorist offence.

The debate was almost entirely focused on how terrible it was that Mohamed had escaped and what the government was going to do to make sure he was caught. Almost no-one picked up on the fact that this is a man who has not been convicted of any offence, so the government has absolutely no business restricting his movements in the first place.

An honourable mention must go to Julian Huppert and Jeremy Corbyn, the only 2 MPs who spoke in the debate who expressed concern about restricting the liberty of an innocent man. The remaining MPs came up with riduculous authoritarian nonsense such as suggesting that the solution to the problem was to ban wearing burkas or to repeal the Human Rights Act.

But still, he's called Mohammed, and he's brown, so he's bound to be a terrorist, right? I find it really depressing that it seemed to be taken for granted that he was a terrorist, just because he's "not one of us". I can't help thinking that if he were a middle-class white guy, a few more MPs might haved questioned the wisdom of doing away with all that pesky "fair trial" malarkey and just going straight for the punishment.

Presumably the security services had slightly more to go on than simply that he was brown and called Mohammed. Perhaps they had some intelligence that he was involved in terrorism. Yeah, well the security services had intelligence that Jean Charles de Menezes was a terrorist as well. There's a good reason why a civilised society puts people on trial before punishing them.

For all I know, maybe Mohamed is a dangerous terrorist. If he is, then he should be put on trial. You know, one of those things where you have a judge and a jury, and a chance to defend yourself. If he were tried and found guilty of terrorist offences, then sure, lock him up and throw away the key.

But it's a really important principle that we are all innocent until proven guilty. The fact that only 2 of our MPs appear to understand that is something I find deeply scary.

 

Permalink 1 comment (latest comment by Matt Hobbs, Tuesday, 5 Nov 2013, 21:21)
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The something-for-nothing culture

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Edited by Adam Jacobs, Monday, 30 Sep 2013, 21:50

George Osborne has recently promised to end the something-for-nothing culture. He doesn't think it's right that people on unemployment benefits should continue to get them in the long term.

He's right about that, of course. It would be far better for everyone if no-one was unemployed in the long term.

So what does he plan to do about it?

Well, when people have been on unemployment benefit for 2 years, he is going to require one of three things from them if they want to keep their benefits. Either they have to do "community work", such as picking up litter, or attend a job centre every day, or undergo training.

Let's look at those in turn.

Making the unemployed do "community work" sounds appealing. It would indeed end a "something for nothing" culture. Maybe we'd all end up with tidier communities as a result. But I'm really not sure exactly what problem it's supposed to solve. Is it supposed to get the unemployed back into paid work? If so, I'd love to know what the evidence is that it will do that. It's really not self evident that giving an unemployed person less time to spend in job applications is going to help them to get a job. I suspect that the real aim of the policy is nothing other than to look tough on so-called "benefits scroungers".

And what about visiting the job centre every day? How does that help, exactly? How much is it going to cost to employ all the extra job centre staff that will be needed? This option sounds completely pointless, unless the point of the policy is merely to make life difficult for the unemployed.

Offering training probably does have merit. But why wait 2 years?

All in all, these policies sound like they are aimed purely as a dog-whistle to core Tory voters who like nothing more than feeling superior to "benefit scroungers", rather than aimed at achieving anything useful.

Unemployment, particularly long-term unemployment, is a terrible thing. But it seems to me that neither of the two main political parties is particularly motivated to do anything to reduce it. Labour have an obvious electoral advantage from having as many people dependent on benefits as possible. Everyone knows that the evil Tories love nothing more than cutting benefits, so anyone on benefits, especially if it's become a long-term thing, has a great incentive to vote Labour. I find it hard to believe that Labour strategists are not aware of that.

I am struggling to think of any positive advantage to the Tories from high rates of unemployment, but on the other hand, I suspect they have little active incentive to reduce it. The Tories, for all the rhetoric, are the party of the rich and privileged. Unemployment is something that happens to other people, in the minds of most Tories, so why should they care?

If any of the main political parties was remotely serious about reducing unemployment, there is a really obvious way to do it. None of the main political parties shows the slightest sign of being interested.

If we want to disincentivise something, we tax it. That's why we tax polluting or harmful activities, such as driving or smoking.

And yet we tax job creation. Employers' national insurance, currently levied at 13.8%, is nothing other than a tax on job creation. Scrap that particular tax, and I can guarantee that unemployment would plummet. The boost to the economy would be huge.

But sadly, neither of the main political parties is interested in boosting the economy as a whole: they are too busy looking after their own vested interests.

You may argue, of course, that scrapping employers' NI is simply not feasible because of the huge hole it would leave in government finances.

Well, yes, it would leave a huge hole, at least in the short run, though in the long run you might find that it's more than made up for by all the extra economic activity it would create. Now, personally, I would argue that the government should spend a lot less than they do, but even if you insist that spending be kept at current levels, then there is an easy way to plug that short-term hole.

There are vast amounts of inherited wealth in the UK. The government could make a huge amount of money in extra taxation by massively increasing inheritance taxes, and closing all the loopholes that so many rich people (for example, George Osborne himself, who has inherited his own millions through a tax-dodging tax-efficient trust fund) use to avoid paying inheritance tax.

After all, we don't want people to get the idea that they can just inherit money, do we? Aren't we all agreed that the "something for nothing" culture is a bad thing?

 

Permalink 1 comment (latest comment by Cathy Lewis, Monday, 30 Sep 2013, 23:13)
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First they came for the chavs...

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Edited by Adam Jacobs, Thursday, 5 Sep 2013, 14:50

The London Borough of Merton has recently designated the entire borough as a "controlled drinking zone". What this means is that, although it is not an offence per se to drink alcohol in a public place, if you do drink alcohol in a public place anywhere within the borough, a police or community support officer has the right to require you to stop drinking and to confiscate your drink. In fact, you don't even have to be drinking: you just have to have a bottle with you. Even an unopened bottle can legally be confiscated.

I find this worrying.

Controlled drinking zones (known by the legislation as "Designated Public Places Orders") were designed to reduce anti-social behaviour in specific areas where there was a problem. Stretching a zone to an entire borough seems an extraordinarily broad interpretation of the legislation, and may be open to legal challenge.

What worries me in particular is that this appears to be something that is aimed at restricting the liberties of the poor and marginalised. Technically, if I were to have a picnic in the local park with a nice bottle of Chateauneuf-du-Pape, my bottle could be confiscated. But I bet it won't be, because I'm white, middle-aged, and middle class.

What do you think is likely to happen if a police officer comes across a black teenager from a deprived neighbourhood drinking a can of lager in the street? Maybe if the teenager is engaging in violent and abusive behaviour, that could be justified (though also completely unnecessary, as being violent and abusive is illegal in its own right). But I dare say there are teenagers from deprived neighbourhoods who can't afford to go to the pub who enjoy drinking a few cans of lager with their mates on street corners. In fact I've seen groups of youths out on the street doing just that, and I've never yet seen any of them causing trouble.

No doubt some people do cause trouble, but it seems totally disproportionate to restrict the liberty of those who don't just to tackle a problem of antisocial behaviour from a minority, especially as violent and antisocial behaviour can be tackled in other ways.

This won't lead to any great political fuss, because the people who are being harmed by this controlled drinking zone are those who lack political power. Most of them probably don't even bother to vote. So politicians don't care about their rights. As stated above, the controlled drinking zone may be unlawful. If it infringed the rights of the middle-classes, you can bet that there would have been a legal challenge by now. To the best of my knowledge, no-one is planning a legal challenge.

One of the Merton MPs, Siobhain McDonagh (who also happens to be my own MP) was tweeting about this the other day. It's clear she supports the policy.

I tried to ask her why she thought it appropriate for the ban to extend to the whole borough (3 times, in fact). In true politician form, she completely avoided that question, and instead answered the questions she'd liked me to have asked her. Here is how the conversation went (for ease of reading, I've arranged the tweets with the oldest ones at the top):

Twitter conversation

I find it very disappointing that my elected representative not only supports a policy that harms marginalised members of society, but also refuses to engage in a meaningful discussion about her reasons for doing so. Politicians sometimes express surprise that no-one trusts them. When they so stubbornly refuse to engage with the concerns of their constituents, is it any wonder?

Permalink 2 comments (latest comment by Rob Walford, Thursday, 5 Sep 2013, 18:04)
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Unanswered questions about David Miranda's detention

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Edited by Adam Jacobs, Wednesday, 21 Aug 2013, 08:08

We've heard a lot in the last few days about David Miranda's detention at Heathrow Airport. There are some things we know about this, but a whole lot more that we don't know.

What seems clear is that Miranda was in transit through Heathrow when he was detained by some kind of security services (though who was involved remains a little unclear: border officials? police? MI6?) for just a few minutes short of the 9 hour maximum allowed by law, and then released without charge.

What is also clear is that the Home Secretary, Teresa May, knew about the detention before it happened. That tells us that this was a deliberate and targetted action, and not border officials just happening to stop someone because he looked a bit dodgy.

After that, however, it all gets a bit murky.

Why was Miranda detained for questionning? If it was for any reason other than establishing whether he was involved in terrorism, then it was unlawful. The Police claim that establishing links with terrorism was indeed the reason. However, it seems implausible that anyone seriously thought that Miranda was about to start blowing things up or flying planes into buildings. Presumably the "terrorist" connection was that he was suspected of carrying data that would be useful to a terrorist.

Well, it seems (though I don't think we can be sure) that they found he was carrying data, given that they confiscated a whole load of his electronic equipment. So why didn't they arrest him on terrorism charges?

To me, that really doesn't stack up.

Then there is also the question of who made the decision to detain Miranda in the first place. Given that the Home Secretary was briefed in advance, I think we can rule out the possibility that it was just some junior front-line border officer acting on his own initiative. The Home Secretary denies that it was a government decision and insists it was an operational decision for the police.

Do we believe that? Hard to say. And if it was a decision from the police, how far up the chain of command did the decision go? Was the Met Commissioner involved?

These are important questions which I have not yet seen anyone in the media attempt to answer.

The story also goes that Miranda was carrying sensitive documents as part of the Guardian's investigation into the role of security services. This seems a little odd. If you have sensitive documents, would you put them on removable media that could easily be stolen (or even consifiscated by security services) or would you send it by secure FTP using a 512-bit encryption method? I know which I'd do. Why did the Guardian choose the other?

Perhaps you could argue that secure FTP connections can be intercepted. Well, maybe they can, especially if you have resources of the security services. But I think even they would struggle to break a properly implemented 512-bit encryption scheme. And even if they do break it, so what? It was their data in the first place. I'm pretty sure they know what's there.

So sending sensitive documents in person seems a little odd.

In response to recent events, the Guardian's editor, Alan Rusbridger wrote about how the UK government had tried to persuade him not to publish any more information on the NSA leaks. He also claims that security officials from GCHQ oversaw the destruction of some hard disks containing the leaked material.

Apparently this happened about a month ago. So why wait all that time to report it? I have yet to see a convincing explanation of that.

And I'm sorry, Alan, but the story about destroying the hard drives really doesn't ring true. What on earth was the point of this? Are we really supposed to believe that officials from GCHQ with responsibility for computer data are so utterly clueless about how computers work that they are completely unfamiliar with the concept of backups?

The story just does not make sense. I'm not saying that Rusbridger made the whole thing up (though I can't rule that out), but it seems that at the very least some spin has intervened in the story or some important details have been left out.

Rusbridger is clearly right about one thing. Investigative journalism is under threat, though perhaps not for the reasons he thinks. If we had good investigative journalists, they would be asking all these questions, and maybe even answering some of them. It seems to me that the spirit of investigative journalism is simply not in fashion any more.

There's clearly much about the Miranda story that we don't know. Good investigative journalism might tell us what that is. But I'm not holding my breath.

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Thatcher's legacy

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In all the reminiscing about Margaret Thatcher that we've heard lately, it seems that many people believe that one of her greatest achievements was curbing the power of union bosses. Now, to be fair, the power of union bosses was a genuine problem in the 1970s. Their democratic legitimacy was questionable, and the damage they did to the economy with repeated strikes was very real.

It was clear that "something must be done": the classic politician's syllogism. Politicians faced with the challenge that "something must be done" tend to focus more on doing "something", rather than on whether that something is the right something.

In Thatcher's case, it certainly wasn't. She took power from union bosses, but she gave even greater power to multinational corporations, particularly in the financial sector. Anyone who has followed what's happened to the economy since 2008 will know that that didn't end well.

Fast forward to the current Conservative government. One of the big problems they have decided to tackle is the benefits system. And yes, again, we do have a genuine problem. About a third of all government spending goes on benefits. That's clearly unhealthy and unsustainable.

Something must be done.

In this case, that "something" appears to be shafting some of the most vulnerable people in our society. Radical changes to the benefit system are only now starting to take effect, so it's too early to be sure what the results will be, but I fear it is likely that many vulnerable people will be left in misery and destitution.

So to me, Thatcher's legacy is that the Conservative party feel free use the excuse of solving one problem to further their ideological agenda while creating even bigger problems.

Permalink 4 comments (latest comment by JoAnn Casey, Thursday, 18 Apr 2013, 23:12)
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The jury system: time to end conscription?

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Edited by Adam Jacobs, Thursday, 21 Feb 2013, 13:22

We have recently discovered that the jury system, much beloved of the legal establishment, doesn't always work very well.

The jury in the Vicky Pryce case showed, by their questions to the judge, that they didn't really understand what they were doing. Well, I say "the jury", but in reality, I suspect it was just one or two members of the jury. Reading between the lines, I would guess that most of the jury understood perfectly well what they were doing, but one or two rogue jurors had other ideas, and weren't going to listen to what their more sensible colleagues were telling them. The questions to the judge were phrased in such as way that I suspect the sensible members of the jury were just making sure that the judge would explain to the rogue members what they had been trying to explain all along.

We've all heard about this because it's a high profile case that was all over the news long before the jury ever had to start considering anything. But I wonder whether juries frequently misunderstand things in all the everyday cases that never make it onto the news?

The legal establishment will tell you that the jury system is one of the things that makes British justice great. And I must admit I do like the way that it ensures that individual judges don't get too much power. There is something reassuring about being judged by a group of your peers.

But this has made me wonder whether we are really going about selecting juries in the right way. I am worried about 2 aspects of the way in which juries are selected: that they are conscripted, and that no consideration is given to whether the individuals picked are reasonable people who are capable of understanding what happens in court.

It strikes me as very odd indeed that we use conscription for juries in what is supposed to be a free society. The Royal Navy gave up conscription in 1814. They sensibly realised that sailors who were serving voluntarily were likely to be better motivated than ones who were only there because they had been compelled to be there by force. After almost 200 years, I would have hoped that the legal system would have cottoned on to that rather obvious fact. I can't help thinking that volunteer jurors would be less likely than conscripts to spend the trial listening to their mp3 players, for example.

I have no doubt that a great many people would volunteer for jury service, particularly if jurors were paid a fair rate for their time.

And shouldn't we have at least some sort of minimum qualification to be on a jury? Obviously it would be quite wrong to insist that jurors be legally qualified: that would defeat the point of being judged by ordinary people. I suspect the bar needs to be set quite low. Perhaps you'd need at least a couple of A levels to be eligible? Perhaps you could take a short test to check how well you understand the sort of things that are presented in court? I don't know what the best way would be: that sort of thing would be best decided by appropriate research.

It's very rare to hear any of the legal establishment criticise the jury system. It seems to be something of a sacred cow, and it's regarded as "just not done" for those within the legal profession to dissent.

But I can't help thinking that if the 12 jurors in the Vicky Pryce case were all there of their own free will and had demonstrated that they met some kind of minimum standard of suitability for jury service, we wouldn't now be facing the bill for an expensive retrial.

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Horse meat and processed food

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Edited by Adam Jacobs, Friday, 15 Feb 2013, 16:35

The news is full of stories about horse meat in processed food at the moment.

Why now? I don't know for sure, but I rather suspect it's because people have only recently started testing for horse DNA, and not because no-one ever put horse meat in cheap processed food before. It would not surprise me one little bit if it turned out that this sort of thing had been going on for years.

The problem is that the consumer demands cheap food. Meat should not be cheap. We'd like it to be cheap, but the reality is that it really shouldn't be. To rear animals for food in an ethical and humane way is a very resource intensive process. If you're doing it right, it's going to be expensive. Once supermarkets and other food suppliers start responding to consumer pressure to supply meat at rock-bottom prices, then it's inevitable that corners are going to be cut.

Clearly somewhere along the line, someone has been actively dishonest. Somewhere between the abattoir and the supermarket shelves, someone knowingly sold horse meat as beef. There's no excuse for that, of course, but in a multibillion pound Europe-wide industry, it's inevitable that there are going to be some less than scrupulous players.

But what of the supermarkets' role in this? Are they the innocent victim of someone else's fraud?

Absolutely not, IMHO. It is their job to know where their meat comes from. In an ideal world, a conversation in a supermarket buying department might go like this:

Buying underling: "Boss, I've found a new supplier of beef for our burgers. They're only charging half the price of our existing supplier!"

Buying boss: "Well, that's a suspiciously large difference in price. I think we need to be careful here. If you think this is worth pursuing, then let's get our quality assurance department to pay them a visit and make absolutely sure that they're not cutting any corners."

I'm guessing that what actually happened is more along these lines:

Buying underling: "Boss, I've found a new supplier of beef for our burgers. They're only charging half the price of our existing supplier!"

Buying boss: "Sounds legit. Where do I sign?"

Now, I'm not saying that the supermarket buyers are necessarily evil people. But here's the thing. There is relentless pressure to keep costs to a minimum. If you find something that's a bit cheaper than it really should be under those circumstances, I'm guessing it's all too easy for a bit of cognitive dissonance to set in. You know, deep down, that the prices are a bit too good to be true. But you don't want to believe that there's anything wrong that's going to scupper this great new deal that could get you a promotion. So you ignore that little nagging doubt that you have.

So are the supermarkets the real bad guys here? Partly, but, and I know this isn't going to be a popular opinion, I believe that we also have to blame consumers. Consumers want cheap meat products. Supermarkets are responding to that demand. They don't actually have a huge amount of choice about that if they want to stay in business.

Politicians are currently expending a lot of hot air on how shocked they are that so many supermarket meat products contain horse. (Are they really shocked? I'm not. Did you really expect that a beef lasagne costing just £1.60 contains only wholesome pure beef?) They will no doubt introduce some more regulation that makes it harder to get away with selling horse meat passed off as beef.

So that will solve the problem, right?

Wrong. The problem is that people expect their food to be produced on the cheap. When the horse meat problem is fixed, other problems will come along and take their place. The only solution is if consumers start to take a bit more of an interest in where their food comes from and are prepared to pay a little more to make sure that their food is produced properly.

Yes, I know that times are tough and there are many who struggle to get by. But there are many ways of eating cheaply without buying processed foods. Not everyone is lucky enough to live near to a local butcher, but for those who do, there are plenty of cheaper cuts of meat that can be delicious (one of my personal favourites is hand of pork). And there's no need to eat meat at all: a vegetarian diet is far cheaper, and healthier as well as an added bonus. If you can't afford to eat good meat every day, it's far better to have it occasionally as a special treat than eat meat of dubious provenance regularly.

So until consumers change their shopping habits, then I'm afraid we are going to see more food scandals. If not horse, then something else. It's inevitable.

Just a thought, but has anyone been checking the supermarket meat for rat DNA?

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EU referendum: what's going on?

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Edited by Adam Jacobs, Saturday, 12 Jan 2013, 08:51

Recently, a lof of people have been warning David Cameron not to take the UK out of the European Union. This morning Michael Heseltine is in the news for this warning, but we've also had similar warnings from political leaders in the US and in Europe.

This puzzles me greatly.

Such warnings would only make any sense in a context which there was a realistic possibility that the UK might withdraw from the EU. I really cannot see why anyone would think that a realistic possibility.

Oh sure, there are some shield-munching Tory backbenchers who want us to withdraw from the EU, but that's nothing new. The same thing was true more than 20 years ago.

But I'm not aware of any evidence that the Tory leadership has any appetite for taking us out of the EU. Now, if Labour and the LibDems were united in wanting us to withdraw from the EU, then the desire on the Tory back benches might just about be able to topple the will of the government on this issue, but they're not. Labour and the LibDems are united with the Tory leadership in being firmly in favour of keeping us within the EU.

Let's face it, EU membership is good for politicians. Whatever the rights and wrongs of EU membership for the UK as a whole (and that's an argument I really don't want to get into today), the EU creates a whole bunch of extra power structures for politicians. Why would any politician want to give up power, especially the sort of power that comes with huge budgets?

I'm aware that there have been mutterings about holding a referendum on EU membership at some stage in the future. But surely no-one thinks that's actually likely to happen? If Cameron fails to hold a referendum on Europe after giving a "cast iron guarantee" that he would, why would anyone think there was any chance that he would do so after some far more vague promises?

So all these warnings about "don't withdraw from Europe" are deeply puzzling. People might as well be warning Cameron "don't nuke Finland", for all the connection these warnings have with reality.

My guess is that this is somehow part of Cameron's PR strategy. Rumour has it that Cameron will be making an important speech on Europe on 22 January. I wouldn't like to predict what he's going to say in that speech, but I will predict 2 things. First, if he promises a referendum on whether the UK stays in the EU, he will not deliver on that promise. Second, whatever he says will sound better in the context of all these warnings about not leaving the EU than it would have sounded had those warnings not been given.

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Why the appointment of Mark Carney as BoE Governer is a kick in the teeth for small businesses

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Yesterday, the government announced that the new Governer of the Bank of England is to be Mark Carney, a Canadian citizen.

I must confess I don't know much about Mark Carney. Everyone seems to say he's a very capable chap, and I have no reason to doubt that. I wish him well in what is certain to be an extremely difficult job.

But what strikes me about this appointment is that it's yet another example of the "one rule for us, one rule for them" culture that's so prevalent in British politics. The government love to make up enormous quantities of rules and regulations that the rest of us (the "plebs", as they would describe us) must follow, but aren't so keen to follow the rules themselves.

Carney's nationality has caused some comment in the media. The government have responded by pointing out that the important thing is that he's the best person for the job, so it makes perfect sense to offer it to him.

This is, of course, a perfectly reasonable argument. It just happens to be one that's not open to the plebs.

There are no doubt many thousands of small businesses up and down the country who have vacancies to fill, and some of those will find that the best person for the job is a foreign national. So, applying the government's logic, they would want all those small businesses to appoint the best person for the job, irrespective of nationality, right?

Wrong.

It seems that the concept of appointing the best person for the job is an option only available to the political elite. If a small business wants to employ a non-EU national, they must first wade through ridiculous quantities of red tape. Even if they have paid all the relevant fees and filled in all the forms (and in practice, this requirement alone is enough to make employing non-EU nationals simply too complex to be practicable for the majority of small businesses), it is still illegal to appoint a non-EU employee if it is possible to find a resident worker who could do the job (but not necessarily do it as well).

No doubt big businesses suffer from these regulations as well to some extent, although they would at least have the resources to comply with all the onerous requirements of employing non-EU nationals, which would be impossible for most small businesses.

(BTW, does anyone remember our Prime Minister talking about cutting the burden of red tape for businesses? Wonder whatever happened to that plan?)

It is pretty clear that, even if Carney was the best person for the job, there were British candidates who could have done it. So the government are failing to comply with the spirit of the law that they impose on the plebs (although I dare say there will be some loophole that will mean they are still acting within the letter of the law).

I am not suggesting that the appointment of Carney was motivated by anything other than a desire to find the best person for the job. But nonetheless, this does come across as yet another example of the government showing that they themselves are not willing to follow the rules that they impose on the plebs.

One rule for us, one rule for them.

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West Coast Mainline cock-up: the tip of the iceberg?

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Today it has emerged that the Department of Transport's decision to award the West Coast Mainline franchise to FirstGroup was based on flawed calculations, or to put it another way, a mahoosive cock-up.

Apparently this was the fault of 3 civil servants. That sounds unlikely to me. Yes, 3 civil servants may have got their sums wrong, but they were working in a system which is ultimately the responsibility of ministers. Doing complicated calculations is difficult. I know this, because I'm a statistician for my day job, and I do complicated calculations all the time. I frequently get them wrong. I therefore have all sorts of quality control processes in place to make sure that my errors are discovered before they are in a position to do any harm.

So while 3 civil servants may have cocked up their calculations, it's inevitable that human beings will do that from time to time. If the system in which they work (for which government ministers  are responsible) allows those cock-ups to go undetected, then that's not the fault of the 3 civil servants. It's the fault of government ministers.

But all this raises a wider point.

This particular cock-up came to light because it resulted in a decision that pissed off Richard Branson, and extremely rich and powerful man. Branson and his legal team had challenged the decision, which means that somebody did have to go and double-check that they'd done their sums right, at which point the cock-up was discovered.

Government departments do all sorts of other calculations, most of which are not challenged by someone rich and powerful. How many other similar cock-ups are waiting to be discovered? Is the sell-off of the NHS to private companies based on equally dodgy numbers? How about George Osborne's plan to fix the economy (which, in case you haven't noticed, doesn't seem to be going too well so far)?

I have a nasty feeling that this sort of cock-up may be an everyday occurrence, and the only thing that's newsworthy is that it got discovered.

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Predistribution: Ed Miliband's Big Society

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The Labour Party leader, Ed Miliband, has recently announced a new Grand Plan to Fix All Society's Ills. This particular GPFASI is called "predistribution". The idea is that rather than tackling inequalities by redistribution (ie taxing the rich and giving money to the poor), Miliband will fix society so that the rich are less rich and the poor are less poor in the first place, so no redistribution is needed.

It has struck me how much this has in common with David Cameron's pet GPFASI, namely the "Big Society". The idea of the Big Society is that we all come together and help each other out, so the various mechanisms that the state has for helping people out will no longer be needed.

What do these two GPFASIs have in common? Well, for a start, they are both great dog-whistle policies designed to appeal to their traditional voters: for Labour, the idea of robbing from the rich to give to the poor, and for the Tories, the idea of scrapping state mechanisms of looking after the vulnerable.

They are also both, on the face of it, splendidly desirable ideas. It really would be good if there were less inequality in society to start with so that government redistributive policies were unnecessary. It would also be really good if everyone in society was nice to each other and looked after each other, so there was no need for the state to get involved.

But the main thing they have in common is that they are both ridiculously idealistic and impractical. Both are couched in vague aspirational terms. Neither has the slightest hint of any specific policies that have a snowball in hell's chance of working in the real world.

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Cash in hand transactions and rank hypocrisy

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The government have managed to annoy a lot of people again, this time by saying that paying people cash in hand as a way of avoiding VAT is morally wrong. To be told that by a politician who has not only claimed vast amounts of dubious expenses at taxpayers' expense to pay for his own taxes, but also been heavily involved in tax avoidance himself, is bad enough. It is worse when his boss, George Osborne, obtained his own unearned millions through a trust fund, a sneakly little ruse to avoid paying inheritance tax.

But that's not really the point I want to make here.

What I find most hypocritical about this is the way the government treat different kinds of tax transactions differently, depending on whether they're the kind that affect the rich and powerful or the ordinary citizen. We recently saw George Osborne get rid of the 50 p tax rate for the highest earners. The rationale for that was that if you set taxes too high, people just find ways to avoid them. The solution, then is to reduce the tax rate.

Guess what? That's exactly what happens with VAT. Paying 20% on top of every transaction is a lot of money, and people find ways to avoid it, like paying cash in hand. So why does the same consideration not apply? Could it be because the 50 p tax rate only affects George Osborne's chums, but struggling to find an extra 20% on top of everyday expenses affects ordinary people?

One can only speculate.

But one final thought. We are in a deep recession. We need consumers to spend money on things to recover from the recession. If everyone saves every spare penny, demand in the economy will remain depressed, and the recession will continue.

So why do we have such a high rate of tax on spending our money?

 

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"It's happening Reg, something's actually happening Reg!"

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Edited by Adam Jacobs, Tuesday, 3 Jul 2012, 09:01

There's a wonderful scene in The Life of Brian in which the People's Front of Judea sit around endlessly discussing the need to take action, rather than actually taking any. If you haven't seen it for a while and your memory needs refreshing, here it is.

This is exactly how our political leaders are dealing with the recent revelations of rampant corruption within the banking sector. It is clear that action is required. But instead, our political leaders are sitting around talking about it.

So what action is required? It's pretty simple really. There is excellent prima facie evidence that fraud has happened on a massive scale, and those responsible need to be prosecuted.

When I say those responsible, I mean not only the traders who were actually perpetrating the fraud, but also the entire board of directors of Barclays, and indeed any other banks found to have been joining in. Traders would not be breaking the rules on this kind of scale if the directors of the company had set a culture of honesty, rather than one of greed.

I am not a lawyer, so I'm not sure which specific offences may have been committed, but it seems obvious that if the allegations we've heard in the media have any basis whatsoever, then any half decent prosecutor ought to be able make a pretty good case under either the Fraud Act 2006, the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000, or (particularly in the case of the directors) the Companies Act 2006.

Prosecutions, with meaningful penalties (ie imprisonment) for those found guilty, would send an important message that this kind of thing is not acceptable. Directors of other banks would act pretty sharpish to clean up their corporate cultures if they thought that they could be held personally liable for any wrongdoing that happened on their watch. Fining the bank just doesn't cut it: what that actually means is that ordinary people saving for their pensions are the ones who get hurt, as I've written before. I honestly believe that going after the directors in this way would solve a lot of problems.

But that doesn't seem to be what our politicians are doing about it. On the one side, the People's Front of Judea Conservative Party are arguing that there needs to be an inquiry led by a senior politician. But the Judean People's Front Labour Party disagree, and insist that the ludicrous and transparent ploy to kick this issue into the long grass inquiry must be led by a judge. This kind of petty squabbling suits the political parties nicely, as they love to be seen to disagree, to keep up the narrative that there is somehow an important difference between them.

In reality, however, both political parties are united against the common enemy, the Romans ordinary British people. Setting up inquiries, or even better, arguing about how to set up an inquiry, is simply a way of avoiding taking any action.

Let's face it, politicians and bankers have a lot in common. It's not that long since MPs were perpetrating fraud on a massive scale in the form of claiming expenses to which they were not entitled. With the exception of a token number of politicians that you could count on the fingers of one hand who did actually get prosecuted, they got away with it. We already have a couple of token resignations from the board of directors at Barclays, but the bankers will probably get away with it too.

MPs and bankers are both dishonest elites who consider themselves above the law. Is it surprising that when the chips are down, they look out for each other?

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"The honourable member is a liar"

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Political nerds were treated to an interesting little bit of parliamentary protocol yesterday. In debating the motion about whether Jeremy Hunt was, to paraphrase, a lying cheating scumbag, one Labour MP, Chris Bryant, said explicity that Hunt had lied to the house.

Apparently it's considered "unparliamentary" language for one MP to accuse another of lying. Normally, any MP making such an accusation would incur the wrath of the Speaker and be required to withdraw the remark. On this occasion, however, Speaker Bercow ruled that it was OK. I gather that an exception was made because they were discussing a motion specifically about Hunt's honesty, so it was considered acceptable in context.

But this is all very odd.

You have to wonder why MPs get so worked up about using the word "lie" to describe each other. There are far more "unparliamentary" things that are absolutely routine in Parliament. The appalling weekly spectacle of Prime Minister's Questions is a good example. For those of you who haven't seen it, the leader of the opposition starts by saying to the Prime Minister "Would the Prime Minister agree that he smells of poo?", to which the Prime Minister replies "Yeah, but your mum smells of dog poo!" OK, I paraphrase a little, but it really is at exactly that level. If a class of 5-year-olds were to behave as badly as MPs do at PMQs, I dare say the teacher would be putting most of them in detention. There is never any attempt whatever from either side to engage in meaningful debate. It's all about who can come up with the most smart-arse soundbite to try to make the other side look daft. Of course, outside the Westminster bubble, it fails spectacularly to do that, and simply makes the person making the jibes look daft.

No, on reflection, "daft" isn't the right word. Unprofessional, childish, and completely unfit to be in any position of responsibility, much less running the country. That would be a better description.

So given that they seem to have no problem with looking completely unparliamentary every Wednesday lunchtime (and much of the rest of the time as well), why all the faux outrage about using the word "lie"?

Well, my theory is that it's all a bit too close to the bone. MPs like to pretend that they are "honourable". They even call themselves "honourable members". Perhaps they think if they say it often enough it will become true. But the truth is that MPs lie all the time. Banning the word, under normal circumstances, is probably just their little way of pretending that it doesn't happen.

I guess that banning "lie" from parliament is a bit like inserting the word "democratic" in the phrase "Democratic Republic of North Korea".

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A new law to make people act lawfully

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Edited by Adam Jacobs, Wednesday, 9 May 2012, 22:00

No doubt much has been written about today's Queen's Speech, and much will continue to be written, but I want to focus on just one sentence:

"My government will introduce legislation to establish an independent adjudicator to ensure supermarkets deal fairly and lawfully with suppliers."

 

Just think about that for a minute. We need new legislation to ensure that supermarkets act lawfully.

Er, hold on a minute: shouldn't existing legislation, by definition, be enough to ensure that everyone, even supermarkets, acts lawfully?

Apparently not.

Something has gone horribly wrong here. Why should we need new laws in order to make sure people act within existing ones? Well, I think the problem is this. Despite promises by governments of all parties to cut red tape, what actually happens is that governments seldom do cut red tape, but just introduce new laws in a steady stream. We end up with such a complete mess of laws that they become unenforceable.

After all, laws don't enforce themselves. We have the police to enforce the important criminal laws, but the police don't have the resources even to do that. When my office was broken into a few years ago, the police said they'd give me a crime number for the insurance, but that's all they would do. They simply didn't have the resources to investigate. And that was despite the burglers having a key, which narrowed down the potential list of suspects considerably.

So seriously, what chance is there that the police are going to enforce the niceties of employment or competition law?

No, the fact is that each new set of laws requires a new enforcement body. And most enforcement bodies are also under-resourced. The Information Commissioner's Office is supposed to enforce the Data Protection Act, but doesn't.

Even when laws are enforced, as I've written before, they are often not enforced in a meaningful way.

So I suppose there is some kind of logic to the new legislation. Supermarkets are probably breaking the law left, right and centre, but without anyone with the specific job of enforcing the law, they will continue to do so. So we need new legislation to enforce existing legislation.

This is madness. It is a clear sign that we have way too much legislation. What we need is to stop introducing new, unenforceable laws, and scrap many of the existing ones, which, let's face it, were mainly designed to make money for lawyers rather than serve any useful purpose. When we have a meaningful number of laws that are actually necessary, I dare say their enforcement will become a whole lot easier and stop needing new laws.

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And the winners are ... politicians!

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Much will no doubt be written today about whether the blue team or the red team did better in yesterday's local elections.

That, however, is just a distraction from the real issue. Does it really make any difference whether the blue team or the red team does better? No, it doesn't. All 3 main political parties, for all the attempts they make to spin the differences among them, are basically in agreement on most things.

All 3 main parties agree that, in the balance of power between the state and citizens, the presumption should be heavily in favour of the state. Oh sure, the Lib Dems had some fine words in their manifesto about civil liberties, but now they're in government they are totally supporting the other 2 parties in their continual erosion of them.

But, I hear you cry, they have totally different policies on the economy, don't they? Bollocks they do. All 3 parties believe strongly in running the economy primarily for the benefit of big businesses, the power machinery of the state, and other vested interests. Any differences between them are just more spin: a narrative that it seems to suit all parties to perpetuate. In reality, you'd be hard pressed to put a fag paper between the different economic policies.

No, the real story is the turnout. According to the latest figures from the BBC (and this may change slightly once all the votes are in, but it won't change much), the turnout is just 32%.

Or to put it another way, over two thirds of the electorate couldn't be bothered to get off their arses and vote.

That, dear reader, is the real story here.

Why was the turnout so low? I don't know the answer to that. I do hope someone is going to do some good quality research to find out. The two main reasons one could speculate about is that voters are just lazy, or maybe they think their vote doesn't make any difference.

Either way, it's pretty shocking.

It seems to me (and I should point out that this is just an impression I get, and is not backed by evidence) that there is a dominant narrative that says that the way our 3 main parties behave is just the way politics has to be. According to that narrative, if you don't like the blue flavour of it, vote for the red flavour, and if you don't like either, vote for the yellow flavour. But don't even think about voting for something different, because that's not allowed.

It's "The wrong lizard" politics.

And here's the thing. I'm guessing that many of those 68% of the electorate who didn't bother to vote actually don't like the way the 3 main parties do things. It just never occurs to them that there is an alternative.

If even just half of them didn't like the 3 main parties, turned up to vote, and voted for the Green party, UKIP, an independent candidate, or some other non-mainstream candidate, just think what it would do to the political landscape.

But they don't. Politicians from the 3 main parties have managed to create a narrative that says that the 3 of them have an inalienable right to rule the country and there's nothing the rest of us can do about it.

They have been very successful in doing that. Less than 5% of the electorate voted for anyone other than one of the 3 main parties. I suspect a large part of the reason for this is that those who are disillusioned with mainstream politicians just stay at home.

You will hear politicians say how terrible it is that the turnout is so low. But I don't believe for a minute that they mean it. A low turnout means that their narrative is winning. A low turnout keeps the same old politicians in power.

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Cash for Cameron

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Cash for Cameron

A major shitstorm erupted over the weekend after a sting by the Sunday Times, in which one of their journalists posed as a potential donor to Tory party funds. The then Tory party treasurer Peter Cruddas, who has since resigned, was filmed explaining that a donation of £250K would buy access to the Prime Minister and influence on government policy.

Shock horror! People who donate huge sums of money to political parties end up having influence on the party! Who knew?

David Cameron's initial reaction to this was to go with his gut instinct as a politician, and do what any seasoned politician would do in these circumstances: he lied through his teeth. He said that this was unacceptable and not all all how they do things. Oh no.

That's bollocks, of course. It's not exactly a secret that donating large sums of money to the Tory party gets you access to the Prime Minister. In fact, the Tory party website itself advertises dinners with David Cameron as one of the perks of making large donations.

But really, how much of a surprise is any of this? Surely no-one is naïve enough to think that people would donate a quarter of a million quid to the Tory party just for fun? Why would you donate that sort of money if you didn't expect anything in return?

Well, the Labour party were quick to get on their high horse and say how shocking it is. As if they'd ever let their funders influence them. Oh wait, didn't Ed Miliband only get elected as party leader because he was the choice of Labour's funders, the trade unions? The Labour party MPs or members didn't want him.

But hold on, I hear you cry, that's completely different. At least trade union funding of the Labour party is based on deep historical reasons and is completely transparent. Well, maybe. But do we really think that individual wealthy donors don't also get to influence Labour party policy? Remember Bernie Ecclestone? He was the boss of Formula One racing, and donated vast sums of money to the Labour party. When the Labour government introduced a ban on tobacco sponsorship of sporting events, amazingly, Formula One was exempt from the ban. Coincidence? I don't think so.

So for the Labour party to look shocked at this and pretend it's a party political issue is the height of hypocrisy.

And let's not pretend the LibDems are exempt from this. The Tories let them share the chocolate Hobnobs at cabinet meetings, which in percentage terms represents a gigantic contribution to LibDem funds. And in return, the Tories get to dictate LibDem policy on tuition fees, the NHS, and a whole host of other things.

It's not as if the latest revelations are a one-off for the Tories. Doesn't it seem a little fishy that Andrew Lansley, the Health Secretary, received significant donations from a private healthcare company shortly before introducing a bill that seeks to dramatically increase the role of private providers in the NHS? The fact is that of course donating large amounts of money to party funds buys you influence. Why would anyone do it if it didn't?

The response of the mainstream media doesn't really seem to have recognised this reality. It's gone for the knee-jerk reaction of “Ooh, here's a scandal! Shock horror! How terrible!”, and I haven't seen much attempt to look at the wider issues. Yes, many in the media have started talking about the wider issue of political party funding. Banning donations above a certain amount is back on the agenda, and rightly so. But I think there's a deeper problem that even a thorough clean-up of how parties are funded wouldn't solve.

The problem is that an elite group at the top of political parties, whether or not they are influenced by outside donations, has too much power. This isn't democratic. In theory, we vote for an MP, and the MP who best represents a constituency gets to vote on the issues of the day in parliament in accordance with the wishes of their constituency members. But it doesn't work like that in practice, because of the whipping system. Most MPs vote the way their party whips tell them to. On the whole, it's not good for an MP's career to defy the whips. So we don't really get the policies of the person we voted for, we get the policies that are imposed on them by their party elite. I'm pretty sure most of the Labour MPs who were elected in 2001 weren't belligerent warmongers, but nonetheless they mostly voted to invade Iraq in 2003 because Tony Blair told them to.

Many LibDem MPs promised before the 2010 election to vote against increasing student tuition fees, but many of them broke that promise because Nick Clegg (having presumably been bribed with some chocolate Hobnobs) told them to. This isn't democratic. The LibDems have traditionally prided themselves on being more democratic than the other parties in the way they make policy, but they can't pretend that that's true any more. Their recent conference voted against supporting the controversial Health and Social Care Bill, but the LibDem leadership told LibDem MPs to support the bill, and most of them did. This is not democratic, and LibDem voters have every right to feel thoroughly betrayed.

So what we have is a system in which an elite few get to make policy, and the votes of the electorate have only a limited effect. Obviously it's completely wrong that wealthy individuals should be able to buy influence over that policy, so if recent events push reform of party funding up the political agenda, then that will be a good thing. Personally, I would like to see a ban on large donations to political parties just to be sure that people cannot buy influence. And I'd define “large” fairly meanly. £500 sounds about right to me.

Of course, this will leave the political parties short of money, and some will argue that they should receive taxpayer funding to make put the shortfall. That would be a travesty. Using our money to prop up the political elite would be completely indefensible. It makes the assumption that political parties serve a public good. They don't. They serve only their own purposes. Political parties have no automatic right to exist. If they do not have a wide enough appeal that they can get the funding they need from modest subscription fees from their own members, then frankly, that's their problem. It simply reinforces the point that they do not appeal to the general public, and only strengthens the argument against taxpayer funding.

I hope that recent events will result in progress being made on cleaning up our political system. But please let's not fall into the trap of thinking that how parties are funded is the only problem.

 

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Why do we vote for politicians?

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One of the problems with most democracies is that they are run by politicians. Politicians are, for the most part, vile, lying, cheating scumbags. It's hard to understand why people keep voting for them. The only convincing explanation I have ever heard is the "wrong lizard" theory, explained by Douglas Adams.

I heard an depressingly splendid example of one of the things that is wrong with politicians on Radio 4's Today programme this morning. Menzies Campbell, a senior member of the Liberal Democrats, was being interviewed in response to a report by the liberal think tank Centre Forum which suggested we should scrap the Trident nuclear deterrent immediately. Campbell was there to put forward the government view, which is that we shouldn't.

Fair enough, you might think. Why shouldn't the government argue that we should keep a nuclear deterrent?

Well, the problem is this. Although Campbell was supposedly responding to the report, he admitted (about 4 min 30 sec into the recording) that he hadn't read it.

Excuse me?

How can he possibly respond to a report that he hasn't read?

This is one of the problems with politicians. They decide on policy first, and then try to find evidence to justify it.

A rational policy maker would consider all the evidence, and then come up with a policy. In contrast, most politicians decide on a policy first, perhaps because they think it will get them votes or perhaps because it helps the financial interests of their mates. Then they look for evidence to support the policy, and ignore any evidence that suggests the policy might be a bad idea.

In Campbell's response to Centre Forum's report, he demonstrates all that's wrong with politicians. He argues that the report was wrong simply on the basis that its conclusions disagreed with government policy. To reach that decision without reading the report is the height of arrogance.

Now, I don't know how much merit there is in the suggestions in Centre Forum's report, because I haven't read it either. But what I do know is that to say its suggestions are not valid without having read it is outrageous. It's disappointing that the normally excellent Evan Davies didn't pick up Campbell on the fact he hadn't read the report. Perhaps that shows just how absolutely routine it has become that politicians take such a dishonest approach to their arguments, and that Evan Davies didn't even regard it as remarkable.

Seriously, why do we put up with this kind of thing from our politicians?

 

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Atos, Abu Qatada, and accountability

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Edited by Adam Jacobs, Wednesday, 8 Feb 2012, 09:42

I was struck by the juxtaposition of 2 stories I heard on the radio this morning: the problems that some benefit claimants are facing because of delays by the medical assessment company, Atos, and a debate in Parliament about the terrorist suspect Abu Qatada. I think it says something quite worrying about the state of our society.

Atos first. If you didn't know, Atos is a private company which is contracted by the Department of Work and Pensions to assess claimants for certain disability-related benefits, such as Employment and Support Allowance (ESA), to make sure that claimants genuinely have a level of disability that entitles them to whatever benefits they are claiming.

The rules for ESA require that an assessment be done within 13 weeks of claiming. Benefits are initially paid at a reduced rate, but the rate is increased after the assessment is done, assuming that it finds the claimed level of disability is genuine (whether the assessments are done fairly is a whole other story, but one I'm not going to get into here).

But there is a problem.

Although Atos are required to do the assessments within 13 weeks, they are not doing so. There is a huge backlog. This means that many claimants are still on the initial reduced rate even after 13 weeks. The reason for this is simple: Atos are crap. Oh sure, I dare say they have their excuses: it was the wrong kind of snow, it was the Royal Wedding, etc etc, but the simple fact is that they're crap.

So what happens when an important organisation providing a vital service to government doesn't fulfil its obligations because they're crap? Does it lose the contract? Are the directors fined? Are the people in government who chose Atos in the first place sent to jail for gross incompetence?

Er, none of the above. Nothing happens.

The second story is that of Abu Qatada. The British government would like to deport him to Jordan to face trial for terrorism charges, but the European Court of Human Rights have ruled that they can't, because he would not face a fair trial. The court found that the case that would be brought against him in Jordan was based in part on evidence obtained by torture.

Now, the British government clearly doesn't have a problem with torture as they would be quite happy to send Abu Qatada to Jordan despite their use of torture if they were allowed to do so, but torture has no place in a civilised society. Not only is torture itself reprehensible, but evidence obtained by torture is completely unreliable — when you're having your fingernails pull out you're probably going to tell your interrogator whatever it is you think he wants to hear, whether it's remotely true or not — so no civilised justice system should use it.

Thankfully, however, the we have the European Court of Human Rights to remind us that torture is bad.

This didn't seem to be good enough for some MPs. I felt a sense of utter dispair listening to the debate about Abu Qatada in Parliament yesterday. One MP, Jason McCartney, suggested that the British government simply ignore the court's ruling and pay the fine, and offered to chip in £50 out of his own pocket (presumably to be claimed back on expenses). Another, Peter Bone, similarly asked the Home Secretary to ignore the court's ruling and send Abu Qatada to Jordan anyway.

I find it a matter of great concern that MPs consider themselves to be above the law in this way, and that they are making perfectly serious suggestions (which, to her credit, Thereas May resisted) that we should simply ignore the law when we don't like it. That's not how laws work. They need to be obeyed by everyone, even MPs.

I think we have a serious problem in this country with the accountability of government to its citizens. Government should be accountable to the law in the same way that everyone else is. If Atos, acting on behalf of the government, is required to assess benefit claimants within 13 weeks and they don't, then there really need to be some serious consequences. Any benefit claimants who didn't comply with the rules of the benefits system would be likely to find themselves in prison: why don't the same rules apply to those running the system?

MPs also seem to think they are above the law, no doubt heartened by how few of them faced any meaningful sanctions after more than 300 of them had fraudulently claimed expenses. Most of those who did simply offered to pay back what they had claimed fraudulently, and that was the end of the matter. Do you think the same thing would happen to someone making a fraudulent claim for disability benefit?

In a democracy, government should not be above the law. We should all be worried when our lawmakers believe that they are.

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Regional variations in social care

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I woke this morning to a story in the news that the Labour Party have published some figures about the fees charged for social care.

The Labour Party appear to be using this to make a party political point that there is something wrong with the social care system. Well, they are probably right about that, but I think the way they've used the figures is silly and disingenuous.

I should make clear that I'm relying on the way this story has been reported by the BBC. I can't find anything about this story on the Labour Party website (that's a bit fishy, wouldn't you say?) so it's possible that I'm misunderstanding what Labour are actually saying if the BBC haven't reported them correctly.

Anyway, one of the criticism is that prices have risen sharply in the last 2 years. Well, duh. Inflation has been running at about 5% for the last 2 years, so we'd expect them to rise. The statistic that charges for home care have risen by 6% over that period shows that they're actually decreasing in real terms. And even the 13% increase in the fees for meals on wheels isn't exactly way out of line with general inflation.

But what I find really annoying is we are told that there are substantial variations in the fees charged to service users in different part of the country as if this were some kind of terrible scandal.

Guess what, Labour: social care is administered by local authorities. Local authorities make decisions based on the views of voters in their own areas about what kind of social care provisions are appropriate. If different voters in different parts of the country value these things differently, there will be differences. It's called democracy.

Actually, that last paragraph is pretty much bollocks. That is of course how it works in theory, but I seriously doubt that it really works that way in practice. Voters in local government elections don't, on the whole, think about things like what fees are charged to users of social care services when they cast their vote. In the main, they vote for the party they always vote for and their parents before them always voted for, without really thinking about the reasons why. Not everyone votes in such an unthinking way, of course, but enough voters do that any notions of true democratic accountability when applied to the effect of local democracy on setting levels of social care spending seem hard to justify.

So decisions about how social care services are run are made by council officials, and if you're lucky, with some guidance from elected councillors. I doubt that elected councillors have too much say, however. I remember a story my father once told of a local government council meeting when he was a district councillor many years ago. He attended a 2 hour meeting of the full council. There were 2 items on the agenda: the annual budget, and whether council vans should be painted green or yellow. Apparently they spent about 10 minutes discussing the budget and the rest of the time having a deeply passionate debate about what colour to pain the vans. One doesn't have to look very far to read other stories of local government council meetings behaving in inappropriate ways that completely lack any pretence at democratic legitimacy.

All in all, I don't have a lot of faith that variations in social care costs are decided in a legitimately democratic way, so the criticism of wide variations is probably reasonable.

But for the Labour Party (or indeed any politician, I'm really not trying to bash one particular side in the political debate here) to make this argument is deeply hypocritical. Local government is a fundamentally flawed system, because the idea that it results in local accountability is a myth. But politicians from all the main parties have supported local government and allowed it to proliferate to the point where it has become a vast and expensive empire. Politicians like it, of course, because it provides more opportunities for politicians to do political stuff. But allowing local government is bound to lead to regional variations in any service provided by local government, so politicians really have no right to complain when that happens.

In my humble opinion, we should do away with local government altogether. The only justification for having it is that it allows local democratic control, but I'm pretty sure that that's a myth. Yes, local governments have considerable powers to organise their own local areas differently, but most councillors don't understand how that actually needs to work to be meaningful, much less the average voter. All that happens in practice is that council officials get to make arbitrary decisions about what happens.

Of course, local government provides important services, social care being an excellent example, and I'm not for a minute suggesting that we do away with that as well. But I don't see why things like social care couldn't be run from central government, and I'm pretty sure it would be a lot more efficient to do it that way as economies of scale kick in.

On the other hand, there are other things local government does that we could quite happily do without, and which no doubt only exist in the first place because people in local government enjoy building their own little empires and politicians let them. Would the world really come to an end if we suddenly found ourselves unable to call on the services of Diversity and Community Engagement Officers?

Local government costs us billions. In return, we are supposed to get local accountability, but in practice, we don't. We just get another reason for the government to suck money away from hard-pressed taxpayers to feather the nests of the political classes. In the current economic climate, can we really afford to spend all that money on a failed political experiment?

 

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Why are councils helping first-time house buyers?

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Edited by Adam Jacobs, Wednesday, 16 Mar 2011, 16:48

A story in the news today has intrigued me. This is the story that 5 local councils in the north of England are launching a scheme to help first-time house buyers by loaning them money for the deposit on their house.

On one level, this sounds great. Although mortgage rates are currently low by historic standards, many first-time buyers struggle to save enough money for the deposit on a house, given that few mortgage lenders these days are prepared to loan more than about 80% of the value of a property, and some much less. It's not affording the mortgage that's the problem, it's finding a big enough pot of cash for a deposit up front. The size of the pot of cash required is outside the reach of most normal people.

We are told in the news story that the councils get a generous rate of interest on the loan. That seems entirely fair and reasonable. So in theory, this isn't costing council tax payers any money, as presumably it's being done at commercial rates of interest. I don't know what rate of interest, and when I phoned the first contact on the press release announcing the scheme, she also didn't know. Apparently it's up to Lloyds TSB, who are participating in the scheme, and I would guess that the rate of interest would vary according to the circumstances.

However, this scheme raises some interesting questions. If the loan is being given at a commercial rate of interest which is expected to cover the risk of people defaulting on their loans, then you have to ask why the banks themselves aren't providing a similar service? After all, one of the main functions of banks is to lend money, isn't it? Banks could easily make the councils' scheme unnecessary, either by offering 95% mortgages, or by offering specific loans for deposits, separately from a mortgage.

I can only think of 2 possible explanations why banks are not making these kinds of loans themselves. One is that the loans are a perfectly viable commercial proposition, and the banks are acting irrationally in not offering the service. It wouldn't be the first time that banks have acted irrationally. The second explanation is that the local councils simply haven't understood the risks of people defaulting on the loan, and are putting council tax payers' money at risk. Both explanations seem perfectly plausible. I have no idea which is correct.

It's worth noting in passing that this scheme may be an example of the "Big Society" in action, as it has been organised by Sector Treasury Services, a private company who appear to be running public finances for some local councils. I assume they are being paid for this scheme, and whether that had any bearing on encouraging councils to go down that route is something we can only speculate about. No, what am I talking about: that's totally far fetched, isn't it? Surely commercial interests would never have anything to do with important decisions about public finances made by responsible public servants, would they?

Anyway, all that aside, there is something else that worries me about this scheme. A big part of the reason why so many people struggle to buy their own home is that house prices are way too high. Housing minister Grant Shapps has recently argued, very sensibly in my view, that a period in which house prices fall in real terms would be a thoroughly good thing.

Helping a few first-time buyers by loaning a deposit will of course be a great help to those buyers who are able to take advantage of the scheme. But in the long run, I fear it will only make things worse for first-time buyers, as it will help to fuel increases in house prices. In some ways, first-time buyers being unable to afford houses could be a good thing if you take a longer-term view, as that situation is unsustainable, and will have to result in house prices stabilising or falling. That's just the sort of outcome that Grant Shapps has said he wants, and which I think most other sensible people would also want.

Surprisingly, then, we are also told in the story I linked to at the top if this article that Mr Shapps welcomes this scheme enthusiastically. That puzzles me. If he would like to see house prices stabilise, why is he supporting a scheme that is likely to contribute to their continued inexorable rise?

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