Personal Blogs

The White House seemed to miss something when D. Trump presented the reciprocal tariff to journalists.

Not only do countries increase tariffs on American products, but importers and exporters can first export to a country to decrease tariffs and then export to the US. This is the triangular equation/matrix.

Regulating Imports with a Reciprocal Tariff to Rectify Trade Practices that Contribute to Large and Persistent Annual United States Goods Trade Deficits – The White House

Presidential Tariff Actions | United States Trade Representative

How Trump’s Tariffs Really Affected the U.S. Job Market | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Trump Reciprocal Tariffs: Details & Analysis | Tax Foundation

Triangular Equation Finance

What are tariffs, how do they work and why is Trump using them?

The word 'dictator' does not seem to have the same meaning in England and the US, especially in Mar A Lago.

President Zelensky had been elected in 2019

Russia has invaded Ukraine in February 2022

Elections should be organised in Ukraine in 2024. But how could Ukraine organise such an election in the actual situation? This is strictly impossible. Ukrainians live in a country at war with many mass graves, and tortures, living in the uncertain.

Dictatorship | Definition, Characteristics, Countries, & Facts | Britannica

Ukraine election: Comedian Zelensky wins presidency by landslide

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c62e2158mkpt

https://www.president.gov.ua/en

Ukraine's Zelensky stays in power despite term expiring

Presidential Election, 31 March and 21 April 2019 | OSCE

Before you are fired, allow me to suggest The Open University. They organise fantastic courses in many areas: English, History, Law, and Strategy, for example. Good luck.

It is always interesting to follow national elections in Europe and in the US.

Evolutions allow us to forecast economic, political, environmental, military, security, educational, and health issues. We do not vote to be protected in our local area, we vote for a better international global future. Everything is connected. We cannot ignore others even if we want to build walls around us. We are responsible for our international multi-faceted environment.

Who will be the next President of the US? What is the future of Europe, including the UK?

Opinion | Trump’s agenda or Harris’s? This quiz may surprise you. - Washington Post

Tracking early voting turnout by state - The Washington Post

Financial Times

Trump II: the military threat to Europe

Harris vs. Trump 2024 presidential polls: Who is ahead? - Washington Post

Georgian election: Pro-EU opposition says vote stolen as ruling party claims victory

Japan election: Ruling LDP to fall short of majority - exit poll

Allow me to share an interesting interview with Ambassador Julianne Smith:

https://wapo.st/3S8KLG7

Everybody has the right to support a population. But we cannot mix a country with the strategy a Prime Minister chose. 

Don't forget that a lot of Palestinians support Israel and know terrorist groups manipulate them. They are not free. We should help them to choose.

Don't forget who finances pro-Hamas students. Iran is very active. They finance far-left groups and give scholarships in the US, the UK and Europe. 

So, Iran has a terrorist strategy and does not want to help any population. 

We could fight against a political party, a plan but not a country. Racism and antisemitism destroy every hope.

Iran University Offers Scholarships to Expelled US Students (newsweek.com)

Iran’s interests are trumping the Palestinian tragedy (ft.com)

Iran Celebrates Pro-Palestinian Protests Spreading Across US Colleges (msn.com)

Iran leader urges Muslim states to back Palestinians militarily, financially | Reuters

Iranians see both sides of the Israel-Gaza conflict

What is behind US college protests over Israel-Gaza war? | Reuters

How a Pro-Palestinian Student Group Became a Leader of Campus Protests - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

The secret history of Students for Justice in Palestine – The Forward

Congress seeks to unmask funding for Students for Justice in Palestine and its anti-Israel protests | Just The News

Mona Jafarian Explores the Hamas-Iran Connection and Its Impact on Regional Stability (youtube.com)

It seems that geopolitical issues are sometimes too simplified.

If country A attacks country B, don't be surprised to see country B responding to this attack. Country B represents, for example, Israel and Ukraine. 

Such an issue cannot be solved in a few weeks or months. Trauma and security issues are important. 

There are many historical mistakes. We must rebuild stone after stone our country, and give the will to live together in a peaceful world.

I still do not understand why we do not talk about federalism in different regions worldwide, such as in Israel.

.

Opinion | Preparing for the first Passover Seder since the Oct. 7 attack on Israel - The Washington Post

Greece and Spain under pressure to provide Ukraine with air defence systems (ft.com)

Ukraine is the front line of a much larger conflict (ft.com)

Federalism in the Middle East: A Collection of Essays | Lawfare (lawfaremedia.org)

Federalism and Decentralization in the Contemporary Middle East and North Africa - Federalism and Decentralization in the Contemporary Middle East and North Africa (cambridge.org)

How to stabilise a country after war

Is there any link between ISKP and Chechen? It is not published yet. We are in front of an international federation of terrorism with a unique target. There are rivalries inside those terrorist movements.

Chechnya’s ISIS Problem | The New Yorker

Islamic State - Khorasan Province — Project CRAAFT

Moscow concert hall attack: Why is ISIL targeting Russia? | ISIL/ISIS News | Al Jazeera

Financing Terror: the Islamic State in the Khorasan region - AOAV

The Role of Religion in Postconflict Syria | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

Examining Extremism: Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) | Examining Extremism | CSIS

South Asian Security in Peril: Unmasking the Threat of ISKP's Shadow - Policy Watcher

Islamic State Khorasan Province Is a Growing Threat in Afghanistan and Beyond – The Diplomat

Risks are not only geographical but also financial and economic.

Risk mapping = classification => identification => measurement => assessment => response

But there is something we should have analysed for decades. Russia has always been looking for access to a hot sea. The threat is not new. Every single European country should use such technology.

Defence CEO calls for Europe an version of Israel’s Iron Dome (ft.com)

Germany to buy Iron Dome-style air defense system from Israel – POLITICO

Germany unites 14 NATO countries to buy missile defense shield, much to the annoyance of France (lemonde.fr)

Romania Looks Set to Be First European Country to Buy Israel's Iron Dome - Israel News - Haaretz.com

Europe faces €56bn Nato defence spending hole (ft.com)

Christine Lagarde says ECB will not commit to path of rate cuts (ft.com)

Donald Trump’s betrayal of Ukraine (ft.com)

The world is not more divided than before the COVID-19 pandemic. People manage their lives differently. Perceptions and priorities change but the world is still divided into two parts: countries that support the US on one side and on the other side countries that support Russia. Nobody is indifferent.

The Divided World | Foreign Affairs

The Impact of the First World War on Strategy | Cairn International Edition (cairn-int.info)

A brief history of having cake and eating it – POLITICO

People in Advanced Economies Say Their Society Is More Divided Than Before Pandemic | Pew Research Center

Russia and China are united by an anti-American agenda. Are we in a new Cold War? - Vox

We Are Now in a Global Cold War – Foreign Policy

Are we entering another Cold War? Probably not—but it could be even worse | Harvard Kennedy School

The New Cold War: America, China, and the Echoes of History (foreignaffairs.com)

Could international investors have a major positive role in the actual international situation?

Who's the best? Politicians or Financials? What is the weight and influence of far-right and far-left parties on public opinion?

in 2012 Putin seeks to reassure foreign investors (ft.com)

in 2022, International investment implications of Russia’s war against Ukraine (abridged version) (oecd.org)

in 2022, How Putin Used Russia’s Sovereign Wealth Fund To Create A ‘State-Sponsored Oligarchy’ (forbes.com)

in 2023, Controlling the Narrative: A Roadmap to Russia's 2024 Presidential Election - Foreign Policy Research Institute (fpri.org)

in 2023, Putin signs law on barring 'unfriendly' foreigners from owning stakes in Russian firms, RIA reports | Reuters

in 2024, Germany blames individual error for Russia’s intercept of military call (ft.com)

Zara returns to Ukraine following 2-year closure  - https://on.ft.com/49x5g5W via @FT

in 2024, Stock Funds Rise 5.2% Thanks to ‘Magnificent Seven’ - WSJ

A Geopolitical Outlook for Investors in 2024 | Practical Law The Journal | Reuters

What can investors expect from 2024? (ft.com)

We note that threats are increasing from Russia, for example. But what type(s) of threat may the World live?

Physical threats are possible but they are not unique. They could be financial, economic, business, social, or religious.

Threats or instability do not use a unique and common way to reach their objective at the same time.

These are the biggest global risks we face in 2024 and beyond | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)

Geopolitical & economic outlook 2024: Instability in China and global security - Thomson Reuters Institute

Never believe Putin is unstoppable – after Navalny, this is how a new global opposition can bring him down | Masha Alekhina, Pussy Riot | The Guardian

Leaked Russian military files reveal criteria for nuclear strike (ft.com)*

Everyone needs to calm down’: experts assess Russian nuclear space threat | Russia | The Guardian

Should we think that the death of an opposition activist in the world means the end of a movement?

I would answer 'no.' 

Everything depends on who and how they support, their level of responsibilities, influences, and the number of supports in the world. Opposition must live. This is the only way to survive and evolve in the right way instead of destroying everything. The world is becoming more and more sectarian. People do not want to analyze the global and local consequences of their actions. 

It’s personal: the reaction to Steve Wright’s death is proof of the power of radio | Gillian Reynolds | The Guardian

Russians risk arrest to mourn Alexei Navalny with vigils and flowers (ft.com)

Alexei Navalny’s Death Marks End of Political Dissent in Russia - WSJ

Alexei Navalny, Russian opposition activist, 1976-2024 (ft.com)

Zelenskyy warns withholding arms to Ukraine jeopardises Nato security (ft.com)

Call to urgently revive Theresa May’s plan for EU-wide defence treaty | European Union | The Guardian

Unfortunately, risks do not appear one time a year during the Atlantic hurricane season, for example. 

Risks are in every sector and appear 24/7. Nothing/Nobody waits until Monday at 9 am to attack a private organization, a population, or an economy.

Investors Are Almost Always Wrong About the Fed on Interest Rates - WSJ

Frontline Ukrainian infantry units report acute shortage of soldiers - The Washington Post

World ‘not prepared’ for climate disasters after warmest ever January | Climate crisis | The Guardian

5 financial scams to watch out for in 2024 (cnbc.com)

2024 Fraud and Financial Crime Trends | Feedzai