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Alfred Anate Mayaki

Scoping Review: Bayesian Inference in R

Friday, 15 Mar 2024, 06:05
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Edited by Alfred Anate Mayaki, Friday, 15 Mar 2024, 16:16

This one is focused on Bayesian inference. Bayes’ Theorem in combination with dynamic stochastic general equilibrium theory is really popular as a tool for monetary policy (where I first encountered its use) but also has applications in other areas such as biology and, in this case, people analytics.

Now, there are three R packages of interest. The first is a package oriented around the Markov Chain - MCMCpack (Martin, 2006), the second is deBInfer (Boersch-Supen, 2016), and most recently, there is INLA (Gomez-Rubio, 2020).

More on these later.

References

Boersch-Supen, P. H., Ryan, S. J. and Johnson, Leah, R. (2016) “deBInfer: Bayesian Inference of dynamical models of biological systems in R”, Special Feature: Technological Advances at the Interface between Ecology and Statistics, 8(4), pp. 511-518, Available at: https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.12679 (Accessed on 15 March 2024)

Gomez-Rubio, V. (2020) ‘Bayesian inference with INLA’, 1st Edition, New York: Chapman and Hall, Available at https://doi.org/10.1201/9781315175584 (Accessed on 15 March 2024)

Martin, A. D. and Quinn, Kevin. M. (2006) “Applied Bayesian Inference in R using MCMCpack”, R News, 6(1), pp. 2-7 – Available at: https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/116223/rnews06.pdf?sequence=1 (Accessed on 15 March 2024)

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This post was written by Alfred Anate Mayaki, a student on the MSc in HRM. It was inspired by an Economic Issues article by Sarah Brown and John Sessions entitled “Absenteeism, Presenteeism, and Shirking”.


Tags: scoping review, B812, econometrics, r, bayesian, presenteeism
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Alfred Anate Mayaki

Started from the Bottom: Bayesian SPNE and Probability in HRM

Wednesday, 13 Mar 2024, 09:06
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Edited by Alfred Anate Mayaki, Wednesday, 13 Mar 2024, 11:08

Bayes’ application to HRM is limited to event probability but is a topic that is mentioned in passing in a paper on shirking and presenteeism by S. Brown (2004) recommended by Dr. Andrew Bryce (Sheffield), which was written over 20 years ago this year.

Brown (2004) reads as follows:

“Such ‘shirking’ is potentially costly to firms and may incite them to undertake monitoring. BST** envisage a monitoring technology in which there is some probability, α < 1, of each absentee’s true state of health being revealed to the firm.”

After deciding to initiate a brief scoping review for the B812 literature topic of choice (‘Wellbeing’). I thought I would check in with the blog and provide some justification and background for this choice of theme.

This spurious love affair with Bayes’ theorem has loomed over my educational learnings but only in its form as sub-game perfect in non-cooperative game theory. Big thanks to Melvyn Coles, Pierre Regibeau, and Franco Squintani for their lectures and classes from our days in Colchester on Economics. 

I started the HRM course in Nov 2023 and while I am still somewhat aware of some concepts surrounding Bayes, things have changed. Nowadays, Bayes’ theorem (10+ years on) is being used in combination with what we call supervised learning and algorithmic techniques such as neural networks.

So, how do we proceed? Perhaps, it is wise to proceed with caution. A brief scoping review will get me up to speed and updated with new research as much as is feasibly possible.

References

Brown, S. and Sessions, John (2004) “Absenteeism, Presenteeism and Shirking”, Economic Issues, 9(1), pp. 15-22 – Available at: https://econpapers.repec.org/article/eisarticl/104brown.htm (Accessed on 13 March 2024)

**Barmby, T. A., Sessions, J. G. and Treble, J. G. (1994) “Absenteeism, Efficiency Wages and Shirking”, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 94(4), pp. 561-566 – Available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/3440797 (Accessed on 13 March 2024)

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This post was written by Alfred Anate Mayaki, a student on the MSc in HRM, and was inspired by the author's previous learnings and experiences.


Tags: neural networks, bayesian, Sarah Brown, John Sessions, economics, wellbeing, B812, presenteeism
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Alfred Anate Mayaki

ExCo, The Focus on Effectiveness, B812 Day School & Wigwe University's Founder Passes Away

Sunday, 10 Mar 2024, 12:34
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Edited by Alfred Anate Mayaki, Monday, 11 Mar 2024, 00:11
It is a very important time to be a Nigerian business leader not just because of the challenge of AI and sustainability but because of seismic shifts in the meaning of leadership and effectiveness. I recently attended the B812 Day School and learned from leaders from other sectors, locations, and seniority (such as health, education, and the wider private sector) who felt the same about the role leadership plays at all levels, especially during COVID-19.

Time and time again, what was mentioned was the concept of follow-through - that is, how do we get our employees to act persuasively (and authentically) after a decision has been taken? I told a funny story about my experience researching my father's career who is the chairman of Thomas Wyatt Plc in Nigeria.

I pointed also to the amazing story of the late Herbert Wigwe and how I was watching motivational videos of him and D'Banj back in the day. Herbert was an example to us all and a dedicated nation builder, who led as a transformational MD. Not only in the financing of critical infrastructure across the Federal Republic in his day job but also as a man. Wigwe University, as an example of Herbert's influence, is set to be an outstanding success story. Herbert was an exceptional example of such leadership and I pay my respects.

Literature Topics

What resonated with many of us on B812's Day School was when we were asked what two unit topics we valued most from the Evidence-Based Value in People Management module. Most people cited the hierarchy of evidence or Analytics, but what I found most interesting was neither the aforementioned nor the obvious attraction presented by the apex of Gifford's hierarchy. What was it then? Easy - in hindsight, I found learning through qualitative methods such as semi-structured interviewing and surveying as containing the most to offer.

Andy (a B812 Tutor) asked us to select one of our blogs to present as a discussion topic on the Day School. I chose an extract from this page, where I have posted a total of 23 course-related blogs. For the EMA, I have chosen Wellbeing as a theme for the part 1 literature review and the part 2 critically reflective account. I decided to choose Wellbeing as a theme based on personal experience. I did some prior research into Recruitment as a theme for the EMA however, I decided against it because I want to continue to read more into the role of evidence, data, and analytics in people management. Herein lies an excellent opportunity for me to do so.

My chosen topic for the part 1 lit review within Wellbeing is Presenteeism, which is mentioned a few times in the B812 module in tutorials and the TGFs. One of the earliest references is in December (Week 6). I have since been learning by using various sources (OU’s Library, Google Scholar, JSTOR, etc.) which provide journal articles that explain a diversity of views on why presenteeism is so excessively costly in comparison to a theory known to many in the field as ‘shirking’. Dr Andrew Bryce (Sheffield) wrote in one of my other blog posts that the two aspects of productivity, that is, shirking and presenteeism, are similar but distinct. However, are both the responsibility of HR to ascertain the impact of therein?


Tags: B812, presenteeism, shirking, evidence-based value, people management, wigwe university
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