Personal Blogs

Yesterday, the respected think-tank Education Policy Institute published a report So Long, London - An analysis of London primary pupil movements that covers the consistently falling roll at schools in the capital with projections of where pupil numbers will stand by the end of the decade. The data is alarming.

In 2017/18 primary pupil numbers peaked in London at just over 700,000 pupils, that number is projected to fall to just over 600,000 by 2028/29. The fall in London is attributed to both falling birth rate and a higher cost of living in the capital that is forcing many young families out of town. There is also a Brexit impact with a higher proportion of international families leaving the country.

Whilst the fall in the capital is most pronounced, it is equally bleak in the rest of England where in the peak year of 2018/19 there were 4,512,711 primary pupils in England, by 2028/29 that number is projected to reduce to 4,240,919.

In total there are expected to be 400,000 fewer pupils at schools in England than there are today.

There are both very real short and long term effects of falling rolls in England.

In the short term it will undoubtedly mean that some schools struggling for pupil numbers will inevitably close, this will mean the end of many single form entry village schools whose viability is simply not sustainable.

The greater concern in the long term is of course a smaller workforce and the higher tax burden they face in paying for an increasingly expensive elderly population (not to mention the public services they will be expected to staff).

The real politics of this is that more children are needed to maintain a healthy society. If they are not coming through birth rates and in the political sphere immigration has become a dirty word it is incredibly difficult to see an answer to this problem. 

On Saturday I took my youngest son to visit Warwick University for an open day, doing very much the same thing as my parents did with me 35 years ago. Coming from a mining area and very, very working class stock - even though I would have liked to attend - at the time university was not for me. What we now describe as the barriers to education were as high as they could have been for anyone. 

My mum would tell me "you don't need education, get a job in the hosiery factory", my dad would tell me "you can't afford education, get a job in the hosiery factory".

Within a decade, of course, all of the hosiery factories had gone. Just like the impact of the pit closures that came before them too many young lads who left school at the same time as me had little in the way of a future.

I didn't go to university, but I was relatively fortunate that I learned from an early age that if you could talk a good game and, more importantly, understand the meaning of the word 'nuance' doors would open for you.

I went from working in a butchers, to working at the council, in IT, education, journalism, politics and now public affairs.

Last week I flew to Belfast to chair a panel at a conference of headteachers of some of the world's leading schools. It amazes me that in thirty years that I've gone from plucking turkeys to that.

But, you know what?

More than anything I've learnt for all their good intentions my parents were wrong. There is nothing more important than education. I have been incredibly lucky in taking an irregular route, so many are not so fortunate.

Sadly, there are still far too many white working-class households who don't value education and with each passing generation they, and the outcomes they experience, keep falling behind.

There is nothing more important in Britain today than addressing the cultural challenge of improving educational outcomes amongst the white working-class. Until that happens the inequality gap will only ever become wider.