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Cash for Cameron

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Cash for Cameron

A major shitstorm erupted over the weekend after a sting by the Sunday Times, in which one of their journalists posed as a potential donor to Tory party funds. The then Tory party treasurer Peter Cruddas, who has since resigned, was filmed explaining that a donation of £250K would buy access to the Prime Minister and influence on government policy.

Shock horror! People who donate huge sums of money to political parties end up having influence on the party! Who knew?

David Cameron's initial reaction to this was to go with his gut instinct as a politician, and do what any seasoned politician would do in these circumstances: he lied through his teeth. He said that this was unacceptable and not all all how they do things. Oh no.

That's bollocks, of course. It's not exactly a secret that donating large sums of money to the Tory party gets you access to the Prime Minister. In fact, the Tory party website itself advertises dinners with David Cameron as one of the perks of making large donations.

But really, how much of a surprise is any of this? Surely no-one is naïve enough to think that people would donate a quarter of a million quid to the Tory party just for fun? Why would you donate that sort of money if you didn't expect anything in return?

Well, the Labour party were quick to get on their high horse and say how shocking it is. As if they'd ever let their funders influence them. Oh wait, didn't Ed Miliband only get elected as party leader because he was the choice of Labour's funders, the trade unions? The Labour party MPs or members didn't want him.

But hold on, I hear you cry, that's completely different. At least trade union funding of the Labour party is based on deep historical reasons and is completely transparent. Well, maybe. But do we really think that individual wealthy donors don't also get to influence Labour party policy? Remember Bernie Ecclestone? He was the boss of Formula One racing, and donated vast sums of money to the Labour party. When the Labour government introduced a ban on tobacco sponsorship of sporting events, amazingly, Formula One was exempt from the ban. Coincidence? I don't think so.

So for the Labour party to look shocked at this and pretend it's a party political issue is the height of hypocrisy.

And let's not pretend the LibDems are exempt from this. The Tories let them share the chocolate Hobnobs at cabinet meetings, which in percentage terms represents a gigantic contribution to LibDem funds. And in return, the Tories get to dictate LibDem policy on tuition fees, the NHS, and a whole host of other things.

It's not as if the latest revelations are a one-off for the Tories. Doesn't it seem a little fishy that Andrew Lansley, the Health Secretary, received significant donations from a private healthcare company shortly before introducing a bill that seeks to dramatically increase the role of private providers in the NHS? The fact is that of course donating large amounts of money to party funds buys you influence. Why would anyone do it if it didn't?

The response of the mainstream media doesn't really seem to have recognised this reality. It's gone for the knee-jerk reaction of “Ooh, here's a scandal! Shock horror! How terrible!”, and I haven't seen much attempt to look at the wider issues. Yes, many in the media have started talking about the wider issue of political party funding. Banning donations above a certain amount is back on the agenda, and rightly so. But I think there's a deeper problem that even a thorough clean-up of how parties are funded wouldn't solve.

The problem is that an elite group at the top of political parties, whether or not they are influenced by outside donations, has too much power. This isn't democratic. In theory, we vote for an MP, and the MP who best represents a constituency gets to vote on the issues of the day in parliament in accordance with the wishes of their constituency members. But it doesn't work like that in practice, because of the whipping system. Most MPs vote the way their party whips tell them to. On the whole, it's not good for an MP's career to defy the whips. So we don't really get the policies of the person we voted for, we get the policies that are imposed on them by their party elite. I'm pretty sure most of the Labour MPs who were elected in 2001 weren't belligerent warmongers, but nonetheless they mostly voted to invade Iraq in 2003 because Tony Blair told them to.

Many LibDem MPs promised before the 2010 election to vote against increasing student tuition fees, but many of them broke that promise because Nick Clegg (having presumably been bribed with some chocolate Hobnobs) told them to. This isn't democratic. The LibDems have traditionally prided themselves on being more democratic than the other parties in the way they make policy, but they can't pretend that that's true any more. Their recent conference voted against supporting the controversial Health and Social Care Bill, but the LibDem leadership told LibDem MPs to support the bill, and most of them did. This is not democratic, and LibDem voters have every right to feel thoroughly betrayed.

So what we have is a system in which an elite few get to make policy, and the votes of the electorate have only a limited effect. Obviously it's completely wrong that wealthy individuals should be able to buy influence over that policy, so if recent events push reform of party funding up the political agenda, then that will be a good thing. Personally, I would like to see a ban on large donations to political parties just to be sure that people cannot buy influence. And I'd define “large” fairly meanly. £500 sounds about right to me.

Of course, this will leave the political parties short of money, and some will argue that they should receive taxpayer funding to make put the shortfall. That would be a travesty. Using our money to prop up the political elite would be completely indefensible. It makes the assumption that political parties serve a public good. They don't. They serve only their own purposes. Political parties have no automatic right to exist. If they do not have a wide enough appeal that they can get the funding they need from modest subscription fees from their own members, then frankly, that's their problem. It simply reinforces the point that they do not appeal to the general public, and only strengthens the argument against taxpayer funding.

I hope that recent events will result in progress being made on cleaning up our political system. But please let's not fall into the trap of thinking that how parties are funded is the only problem.

 

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Why do we vote for politicians?

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One of the problems with most democracies is that they are run by politicians. Politicians are, for the most part, vile, lying, cheating scumbags. It's hard to understand why people keep voting for them. The only convincing explanation I have ever heard is the "wrong lizard" theory, explained by Douglas Adams.

I heard an depressingly splendid example of one of the things that is wrong with politicians on Radio 4's Today programme this morning. Menzies Campbell, a senior member of the Liberal Democrats, was being interviewed in response to a report by the liberal think tank Centre Forum which suggested we should scrap the Trident nuclear deterrent immediately. Campbell was there to put forward the government view, which is that we shouldn't.

Fair enough, you might think. Why shouldn't the government argue that we should keep a nuclear deterrent?

Well, the problem is this. Although Campbell was supposedly responding to the report, he admitted (about 4 min 30 sec into the recording) that he hadn't read it.

Excuse me?

How can he possibly respond to a report that he hasn't read?

This is one of the problems with politicians. They decide on policy first, and then try to find evidence to justify it.

A rational policy maker would consider all the evidence, and then come up with a policy. In contrast, most politicians decide on a policy first, perhaps because they think it will get them votes or perhaps because it helps the financial interests of their mates. Then they look for evidence to support the policy, and ignore any evidence that suggests the policy might be a bad idea.

In Campbell's response to Centre Forum's report, he demonstrates all that's wrong with politicians. He argues that the report was wrong simply on the basis that its conclusions disagreed with government policy. To reach that decision without reading the report is the height of arrogance.

Now, I don't know how much merit there is in the suggestions in Centre Forum's report, because I haven't read it either. But what I do know is that to say its suggestions are not valid without having read it is outrageous. It's disappointing that the normally excellent Evan Davies didn't pick up Campbell on the fact he hadn't read the report. Perhaps that shows just how absolutely routine it has become that politicians take such a dishonest approach to their arguments, and that Evan Davies didn't even regard it as remarkable.

Seriously, why do we put up with this kind of thing from our politicians?

 

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Atos, Abu Qatada, and accountability

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Edited by Adam Jacobs, Wednesday, 8 Feb 2012, 09:42

I was struck by the juxtaposition of 2 stories I heard on the radio this morning: the problems that some benefit claimants are facing because of delays by the medical assessment company, Atos, and a debate in Parliament about the terrorist suspect Abu Qatada. I think it says something quite worrying about the state of our society.

Atos first. If you didn't know, Atos is a private company which is contracted by the Department of Work and Pensions to assess claimants for certain disability-related benefits, such as Employment and Support Allowance (ESA), to make sure that claimants genuinely have a level of disability that entitles them to whatever benefits they are claiming.

The rules for ESA require that an assessment be done within 13 weeks of claiming. Benefits are initially paid at a reduced rate, but the rate is increased after the assessment is done, assuming that it finds the claimed level of disability is genuine (whether the assessments are done fairly is a whole other story, but one I'm not going to get into here).

But there is a problem.

Although Atos are required to do the assessments within 13 weeks, they are not doing so. There is a huge backlog. This means that many claimants are still on the initial reduced rate even after 13 weeks. The reason for this is simple: Atos are crap. Oh sure, I dare say they have their excuses: it was the wrong kind of snow, it was the Royal Wedding, etc etc, but the simple fact is that they're crap.

So what happens when an important organisation providing a vital service to government doesn't fulfil its obligations because they're crap? Does it lose the contract? Are the directors fined? Are the people in government who chose Atos in the first place sent to jail for gross incompetence?

Er, none of the above. Nothing happens.

The second story is that of Abu Qatada. The British government would like to deport him to Jordan to face trial for terrorism charges, but the European Court of Human Rights have ruled that they can't, because he would not face a fair trial. The court found that the case that would be brought against him in Jordan was based in part on evidence obtained by torture.

Now, the British government clearly doesn't have a problem with torture as they would be quite happy to send Abu Qatada to Jordan despite their use of torture if they were allowed to do so, but torture has no place in a civilised society. Not only is torture itself reprehensible, but evidence obtained by torture is completely unreliable — when you're having your fingernails pull out you're probably going to tell your interrogator whatever it is you think he wants to hear, whether it's remotely true or not — so no civilised justice system should use it.

Thankfully, however, the we have the European Court of Human Rights to remind us that torture is bad.

This didn't seem to be good enough for some MPs. I felt a sense of utter dispair listening to the debate about Abu Qatada in Parliament yesterday. One MP, Jason McCartney, suggested that the British government simply ignore the court's ruling and pay the fine, and offered to chip in £50 out of his own pocket (presumably to be claimed back on expenses). Another, Peter Bone, similarly asked the Home Secretary to ignore the court's ruling and send Abu Qatada to Jordan anyway.

I find it a matter of great concern that MPs consider themselves to be above the law in this way, and that they are making perfectly serious suggestions (which, to her credit, Thereas May resisted) that we should simply ignore the law when we don't like it. That's not how laws work. They need to be obeyed by everyone, even MPs.

I think we have a serious problem in this country with the accountability of government to its citizens. Government should be accountable to the law in the same way that everyone else is. If Atos, acting on behalf of the government, is required to assess benefit claimants within 13 weeks and they don't, then there really need to be some serious consequences. Any benefit claimants who didn't comply with the rules of the benefits system would be likely to find themselves in prison: why don't the same rules apply to those running the system?

MPs also seem to think they are above the law, no doubt heartened by how few of them faced any meaningful sanctions after more than 300 of them had fraudulently claimed expenses. Most of those who did simply offered to pay back what they had claimed fraudulently, and that was the end of the matter. Do you think the same thing would happen to someone making a fraudulent claim for disability benefit?

In a democracy, government should not be above the law. We should all be worried when our lawmakers believe that they are.

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Regional variations in social care

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I woke this morning to a story in the news that the Labour Party have published some figures about the fees charged for social care.

The Labour Party appear to be using this to make a party political point that there is something wrong with the social care system. Well, they are probably right about that, but I think the way they've used the figures is silly and disingenuous.

I should make clear that I'm relying on the way this story has been reported by the BBC. I can't find anything about this story on the Labour Party website (that's a bit fishy, wouldn't you say?) so it's possible that I'm misunderstanding what Labour are actually saying if the BBC haven't reported them correctly.

Anyway, one of the criticism is that prices have risen sharply in the last 2 years. Well, duh. Inflation has been running at about 5% for the last 2 years, so we'd expect them to rise. The statistic that charges for home care have risen by 6% over that period shows that they're actually decreasing in real terms. And even the 13% increase in the fees for meals on wheels isn't exactly way out of line with general inflation.

But what I find really annoying is we are told that there are substantial variations in the fees charged to service users in different part of the country as if this were some kind of terrible scandal.

Guess what, Labour: social care is administered by local authorities. Local authorities make decisions based on the views of voters in their own areas about what kind of social care provisions are appropriate. If different voters in different parts of the country value these things differently, there will be differences. It's called democracy.

Actually, that last paragraph is pretty much bollocks. That is of course how it works in theory, but I seriously doubt that it really works that way in practice. Voters in local government elections don't, on the whole, think about things like what fees are charged to users of social care services when they cast their vote. In the main, they vote for the party they always vote for and their parents before them always voted for, without really thinking about the reasons why. Not everyone votes in such an unthinking way, of course, but enough voters do that any notions of true democratic accountability when applied to the effect of local democracy on setting levels of social care spending seem hard to justify.

So decisions about how social care services are run are made by council officials, and if you're lucky, with some guidance from elected councillors. I doubt that elected councillors have too much say, however. I remember a story my father once told of a local government council meeting when he was a district councillor many years ago. He attended a 2 hour meeting of the full council. There were 2 items on the agenda: the annual budget, and whether council vans should be painted green or yellow. Apparently they spent about 10 minutes discussing the budget and the rest of the time having a deeply passionate debate about what colour to pain the vans. One doesn't have to look very far to read other stories of local government council meetings behaving in inappropriate ways that completely lack any pretence at democratic legitimacy.

All in all, I don't have a lot of faith that variations in social care costs are decided in a legitimately democratic way, so the criticism of wide variations is probably reasonable.

But for the Labour Party (or indeed any politician, I'm really not trying to bash one particular side in the political debate here) to make this argument is deeply hypocritical. Local government is a fundamentally flawed system, because the idea that it results in local accountability is a myth. But politicians from all the main parties have supported local government and allowed it to proliferate to the point where it has become a vast and expensive empire. Politicians like it, of course, because it provides more opportunities for politicians to do political stuff. But allowing local government is bound to lead to regional variations in any service provided by local government, so politicians really have no right to complain when that happens.

In my humble opinion, we should do away with local government altogether. The only justification for having it is that it allows local democratic control, but I'm pretty sure that that's a myth. Yes, local governments have considerable powers to organise their own local areas differently, but most councillors don't understand how that actually needs to work to be meaningful, much less the average voter. All that happens in practice is that council officials get to make arbitrary decisions about what happens.

Of course, local government provides important services, social care being an excellent example, and I'm not for a minute suggesting that we do away with that as well. But I don't see why things like social care couldn't be run from central government, and I'm pretty sure it would be a lot more efficient to do it that way as economies of scale kick in.

On the other hand, there are other things local government does that we could quite happily do without, and which no doubt only exist in the first place because people in local government enjoy building their own little empires and politicians let them. Would the world really come to an end if we suddenly found ourselves unable to call on the services of Diversity and Community Engagement Officers?

Local government costs us billions. In return, we are supposed to get local accountability, but in practice, we don't. We just get another reason for the government to suck money away from hard-pressed taxpayers to feather the nests of the political classes. In the current economic climate, can we really afford to spend all that money on a failed political experiment?

 

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Promoted Tweets

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I like Twitter. I really do. It's not only fun, it's also very useful. I have two Twitter accounts: my official work Twitter, @dianthusmed, in which I tweet worthy things about medical writing, clinical research, etc, and my personal one, @adam_j666, in which I do all the ranty sweary stuff.

As an example of how useful it is, I recruited someone to my company entirely through Twitter earlier this year. This probably saved me thousands of pounds in recruitment agency fees. But that's just one example among many. If you're reading this blog, it's quite likely that you're doing so because you saw me Tweet about it.

One of the great things about Twitter has been that you get to decide which bits of the huge amounts of activity you see. You can follow people if you find them interesting, and ignore them if you don't. You can monitor tweets containing certain key words that you find interesting. It's really a wonderfully ingenious way of filtering gargantuan amounts of information so that you only see what you want to see.

However, there is now a disturbing development, which is that Twitter are inserting "promoted tweets" into places where they are not wanted. This is a real threat to that model. Now, in addition to the things I have chosen to see, my Twitter experience is spammed by completely irrelevant and unwanted Tweets that someone has paid to have inserted into my searches. Some Twitter users are also having them inserted directly into their timelines, which seems even more intrusive.

According to Twitter, promoted tweets are supposed to be relevant to particular searches. Well, sorry, but I had a promoted tweet advertising wrapping paper in a search for "medical writing". If they really were relevant, perhaps it wouldn't be so bad. Twitter also claim that promoted Tweets can be deleted with a single click. Perhaps they can on the Twitter web interface, but like millions of other Twitter users, I use the TweetDeck interface (which is owned by Twitter), which does not allow promoted Tweets to be removed in any way. They just sit there, staring at me, no matter how many times I try to block them. I have occasionally managed to get rid of one or two after repeatedly blocking and reporting as spam, but then they come back again, zombie-like, the next time I open Tweetdeck.

Sorry, Twitter, this really isn't on. Promoted Tweets are far too intrusive. Now, I realise that Twitter needs to find a way of making money somehow. But surely there are ways of doing so that don't degrade the user experience so badly? I can't help thinking that there must be scope to use the freemium model, ie that Twitter is free to the majority of users, but there is an option of having premium added-value services to users who don't mind paying a fee. This appears to be working well for companies such as LinkedIn or Skype, and I don't see why it shouldn't work for Twitter with a bit of imagination.

But Twitter really need to come at this problem with a bit more imagination. Spamming our Twitter timelines is not going to lead to a successful business model.

 

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Corporate law breaking

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There is something terribly wrong with today's news that Npower has been fined £2 million for the way they mishandled complaints.

The figure of £2 million is, of course, chicken feed to a company the size of Npower, whose revenues in 2010 were just short of £8 billion (yes, that's billion with a "b").

But that's not the point.

The point is that fining a large publicly listed company does not bring about proper accountability. Who loses when a company like this is fined £2 million? The shareholders. And who are the shareholders? Er, that would be people like you and me, who no doubt have bits of our pension funds invested in companies like Npower.

Was it the shareholders who were responsible for failing to treat customer complaints properly?

No. That would be the company's board of directors.

The directors of a company are legally responsible for the actions of that company. It's not clear to me whether action against the directors personally would have been an option in this case from a legal point of view. But taking action against the directors personally would be far more likely to result in proper accountability, and if the law doesn't allow it in cases like this, the law should be changed. If the law does allow it in cases like this, then shame on Ofgem for not having the balls to take the action they should have done.

Company directors may be minded to cut corners and do bad things like failing to treat customer complaints honestly if they know that the worst that will happen is that their company gets fined.

I wonder if Npower would have mishandled the complaints in the way it did if the directors thought that they could be personally fined £2 million if they got caught?

 

 

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GPs, patients, and power

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I was shocked, if not surprised, to hear in the news this morning that some GPs have been removing patients from their lists for flimsy reasons and without following due process.

This is bad in itself, but I think that it’s also symptomatic of two wider problems.

The first problem is that the NHS is generally under-resourced, and this certainly appears to be true of the GP system. I don’t know if my own GP surgery is typical, but my partner has been unwell recently, and phoned our GP surgery first thing on Monday morning to try to see a doctor. There were no appointments with a doctor available all week, and the best they could manage was an appointment with a nurse on Thursday. If our surgery is anything other than a ridiculous outlier, then that is simply not acceptable. When GPs are struggling to meet the demands of more patients than they can reasonably manage, perhaps it is not surprising that they are willing to take any opportunity to remove patients from their list, and some are tempted to cut corners.

I have written and podcasted about the problems of NHS resourcing before, and I won’t go into all the arguments again here.

No, today I want to focus on another problem of which I think the latest GP story is a symptom: that our society has a serious problem with the unequal distribution of power.

There is an obviously unequal power distribution between GPs and their patients. In a caring and just society, there would be appropriate safeguards to ensure that the rights of patients are respected and that GPs do not abuse the power they have, for example, to refuse to see patients. Clearly, some GPs have abused that power. This is in breach of their contracts.

So what consequences do they face for breaching their contracts? Legal action? Losing their job? Well, as far as I can tell, the only consequence is that they get a letter from the Health Ombudsman which says something along the lines of “Dear Doctor, that was very naughty, please don’t do it again”. And that’s just the ones who get reported to the Ombudsman. No doubt there are many others who are not reported.

Now, it’s not my intention to have a go at GPs here. I’m sure that the vast majority of GPs care deeply about their patients and that the cases described here are highly unrepresentative. But I do think that what has happened here is extremely representative of the different consequences that ensue when people in a position of power misbehave compared with those who lack power.

There are many examples of this, and it worries me. For example, this week a long-running legal battle between a group of Irish travellers and Basildon Council finally came to an end. The travellers, who set up home on the site of an old scrapyard (which they own) without planning permission, will soon be evicted from their homes. Compare what happens when Tesco breach the conditions of their planning permission. No-one sends the bailiffs in to tear down an illegally built Tesco store. Why are the two situations treated differently, if not that one of the groups who breached the planning permission regulations is a marginalised minority group, and the other is a powerful corporation?

Another recent example of abuse of power was the arrest of a member of the public at a meeting of Carmarthenshire Council. She had clearly broken no laws, and was arrested simply because the chief executive of the council asked the police to do so. This was a flagrant abuse of power, for which no-one has been held accountable.

And are taxes applied equally to those of all statuses? I don’t think so. A couple of years ago, the small business that I run was a month late with an instalment of our business rates, purely as a result of an oversight. Despite paying the instalment the very same day we received a reminder from the council, and despite having no previous record of non-payment, we were still fined for late payment at the local magistrates’ court. Vodafone, on the other hand, a huge multinational corporation, seem to be able to dictate to HM Treasury how much tax they are willing to pay, and funnily enough, they don’t pay very much.

Perhaps the most flagrant example of the different treatment for people with different levels of power can be seen in two recent cases of mass law-breaking. Following the riots that took place this summer, those taking part in criminal activity were hunted down assiduously, and when caught, faced very stiff penalties.

Compare this with what happened in 2009 when it was discovered that a great many MPs had been dishonestly claiming expenses. Eventually, 4 MPs were convicted for fraud, receiving short prison sentences. But there was a good prima facie case that hundreds more had claimed dishonestly. Many of them were allowed to get away with no further action if they simply repaid the money that they had claimed dishonestly. Would those caught looting during the riots have been treated similarly leniently if they had offered to return the goods they had looted? I really can’t see any moral difference between the two. The only reason seems to be that MPs are in a position of power, and those involved in the riots lack power.

I really worry that in our failure to treat all sections of society fairly and apply the same rules to all, we are storing up immense trouble for the future.
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Broken windows, mattresses, and ice cream

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One thing I’ve already come across even at this early stage in my studies of economics is something called the Broken Window Fallacy. This seems to be quite an interesting bit of economics, which is relevant in discussions of the recent government stimulus packages, the economic effects of the Japanese earthquake, and the economics of war. I dare say there are many subtleties and complexities that I have yet to grasp, and hopefully will know all about by the time I’ve finished my studies, but I think I understand the basic points already.

This morning, while I was out for a run with my partner Carolyn, we were running along a very pleasant path by the side of a river, when I saw there was a perfect opportunity to explain the Broken Window Fallacy to Carolyn. Our conversation went something like this.

Carolyn: Look, there’s a mattress in the river.

Me: Oh yes, so there is. That’s really not a good place for it.

Carolyn: What sort of an idiot would do such a thing? I think people who throw mattresses in rivers should be thrown in themselves.

Me: Indeed. Although there is a school of thought that says that it may help the economy to throw mattresses in rivers.

Carolyn: But how can that be?

Me: Well, consider this. If people throw mattresses in rivers, the local council will need to employ people to get them out again. Let’s say the person who gets the mattresses out is called Dave. Currently, Dave has a steady job, he’s able to feed his family, and he can afford to go out and spend money, which also helps the businesses where he spends it. If no-one ever threw any mattresses into the river, Dave would be out of a job and wouldn’t be able to spend money any more.

Carolyn: But the council hasn’t got any money!

Me: Ah, exactly. You are clearly a wise student, and have already seen the fallacy in the argument. The argument I have given you was indeed flawed.

Carolyn: I thought it sounded fishy.

Me: In fact it’s so flawed, it even has a name in economics. It’s called the “Broken Window Fallacy”. The original version was based on an example of a boy who breaks the glass of a shop window. It’s conceptually the same as the present example, but you have to imagine that Dave is a glazier, rather than a mattress-retrieval technician.

Carolyn: So how does the fallacy work exactly?

Me: Well, suppose that no-one threw any mattresses in the river. Dave would then be out of a job. But the other side of that equation is that the council would no longer need to pay him, so they could use the money saved to reduce our council tax.

Carolyn: Yeah, right. Like they’d actually do that.

Me: Bear with me: this is economic theory. I’m talking hypothetically.

Carolyn: OK, let’s say for the sake of argument that they reduce our council tax.

Me: Well in that case, we’d have a bit more money to spend, because we wouldn’t be paying so much council tax. We might, for example, decide to go and spend it on an ice cream. Then with the extra demand for ice creams, Dave could go and get a job making ice creams.

Carolyn: So it doesn’t really make any difference then? It sounds like either way, Dave has a job.

Me: Well it does make a difference, because if people throw mattresses in rivers, Dave has a job, but we have no ice cream. If no-one throws mattresses in rivers, Dave still has a job, albeit a different job, but we now have something we value, namely an ice cream. So if no one throws mattresses in rivers, there is extra value in the economy in total, because although everyone has as much money as they did before, we now have something we value, namely an ice cream

Carolyn: Yes, I see. We do indeed value ice creams. In fact, I’d really quite like an ice cream.

Me: Sorry, you can’t have one.

Carolyn: Why not?

Me: Because there’s a mattress in the river.

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Why are councils helping first-time house buyers?

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Edited by Adam Jacobs, Wednesday, 16 Mar 2011, 16:48

A story in the news today has intrigued me. This is the story that 5 local councils in the north of England are launching a scheme to help first-time house buyers by loaning them money for the deposit on their house.

On one level, this sounds great. Although mortgage rates are currently low by historic standards, many first-time buyers struggle to save enough money for the deposit on a house, given that few mortgage lenders these days are prepared to loan more than about 80% of the value of a property, and some much less. It's not affording the mortgage that's the problem, it's finding a big enough pot of cash for a deposit up front. The size of the pot of cash required is outside the reach of most normal people.

We are told in the news story that the councils get a generous rate of interest on the loan. That seems entirely fair and reasonable. So in theory, this isn't costing council tax payers any money, as presumably it's being done at commercial rates of interest. I don't know what rate of interest, and when I phoned the first contact on the press release announcing the scheme, she also didn't know. Apparently it's up to Lloyds TSB, who are participating in the scheme, and I would guess that the rate of interest would vary according to the circumstances.

However, this scheme raises some interesting questions. If the loan is being given at a commercial rate of interest which is expected to cover the risk of people defaulting on their loans, then you have to ask why the banks themselves aren't providing a similar service? After all, one of the main functions of banks is to lend money, isn't it? Banks could easily make the councils' scheme unnecessary, either by offering 95% mortgages, or by offering specific loans for deposits, separately from a mortgage.

I can only think of 2 possible explanations why banks are not making these kinds of loans themselves. One is that the loans are a perfectly viable commercial proposition, and the banks are acting irrationally in not offering the service. It wouldn't be the first time that banks have acted irrationally. The second explanation is that the local councils simply haven't understood the risks of people defaulting on the loan, and are putting council tax payers' money at risk. Both explanations seem perfectly plausible. I have no idea which is correct.

It's worth noting in passing that this scheme may be an example of the "Big Society" in action, as it has been organised by Sector Treasury Services, a private company who appear to be running public finances for some local councils. I assume they are being paid for this scheme, and whether that had any bearing on encouraging councils to go down that route is something we can only speculate about. No, what am I talking about: that's totally far fetched, isn't it? Surely commercial interests would never have anything to do with important decisions about public finances made by responsible public servants, would they?

Anyway, all that aside, there is something else that worries me about this scheme. A big part of the reason why so many people struggle to buy their own home is that house prices are way too high. Housing minister Grant Shapps has recently argued, very sensibly in my view, that a period in which house prices fall in real terms would be a thoroughly good thing.

Helping a few first-time buyers by loaning a deposit will of course be a great help to those buyers who are able to take advantage of the scheme. But in the long run, I fear it will only make things worse for first-time buyers, as it will help to fuel increases in house prices. In some ways, first-time buyers being unable to afford houses could be a good thing if you take a longer-term view, as that situation is unsustainable, and will have to result in house prices stabilising or falling. That's just the sort of outcome that Grant Shapps has said he wants, and which I think most other sensible people would also want.

Surprisingly, then, we are also told in the story I linked to at the top if this article that Mr Shapps welcomes this scheme enthusiastically. That puzzles me. If he would like to see house prices stabilise, why is he supporting a scheme that is likely to contribute to their continued inexorable rise?

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Is my phone now more expensive?

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Here's a little bit of economics I'm not sure I've quite got my head round. I have a feeling that my whizzy new mobile phone (see the last couple of posts for details) has just become more expensive, even though the price has not changed.

I was previously paying about £25 per month for my mobile phone contract on my old phone (that actually includes 2 phones, as my partner's phone is on the same account). The new phones needed me to sign up to paying about £45 per month (again for 2 phones) for 2 years. I figured out that the phones were therefore costing £20 a month for 2 years, that being the marginal cost of the new contract compared with my old one. That works out at £480 over the in total, meaning that each phone costs £240. Given that you pay about £300 to buy one of the phones outright, that seemed like a good deal, especially as I've ignored discounting in the above calculations, which so the discounted cost of the phone is really less than £240.

Now, since I no longer need my old phone, but I figured it might be useful as a backup or circumstances when I don't want to be carrying an expensive piece of kit with me (such as when I'm out running), I thought I'd keep it active but switch it to a pay-as-you-go account. However, when I phoned my old network to ask them to make that change, they offerred instead to put me on a much cheaper contract, at £5 per month per phone, or £10 a month for both (I've accepted this, even though I doubt that I'd have spent that much on pay-as-you-go services, simply for the convenience of sticking with monthly billing).

So here's the thing. I was paying far more than I needed to for my old phone. I could have just phoned them and asked them to reduce my monthly bill even if I hadn't bought the new phone. I thought that that marginal cost of the 2 new phones was £20 per month, but it now turns out that it's really £35 per month.

I'm not sure I'd have bought the new phones if I thought they were costing me that much. It feels like the price has gone up. However, I'm still paying exactly the same amount for the new phones as I'd previously agreed to pay.

I'm struggling to get my head round this.

 

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Mobile phones again

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Edited by Adam Jacobs, Tuesday, 15 Feb 2011, 09:55

Last month, I wrote a couple of blog entries (here and here) about the decision I was trying to make about whether to trade in my old mobile phone for one of the latest smartphones. I was a little reluctant, partly because I suspected that it would all go badly, as indeed it seems to be doing.

Anyway, I eventually decided to take the plunge, and on Saturday, I phoned up Vodafone and asked them to send me 2 nice shiny new HTC Desires (the second one for my other half, in case you were wondering). I'm still not totally sure I really need one, and suspect I have just been seduced into getting a new toy by the marketing hype, but as most of the people I know who have smartphones think they are brilliant, I finally gave in.

My new phone hasn't even arrived yet (it's due to arrive sometime today), but already, things seem to be going badly.

When I phoned Vodafone on Saturday, I asked if they would be prepared to offer any kind of discount on their standard tariffs, given that I was ordering 2 phones on a single account. They said they would, and I was happy. But I was conscious that this was something agreed only on the phone, and that I had nothing in writing. Many years of experience of dealing with big faceless utility companies have taught me the wisdom of making sure that anything that's agreed is agreed in writing.

Anyway, the person I spoke to said that they would confirm all the details in an email, so I gave them my email address, and felt reasonably content about the whole thing.

As of this morning, no email had arrived, so I phoned Vodafone to try to chase it up. It was about 7.30, and I wasn't sure if they would be open at such an early hour, so I checked on their website. It said that their customer service lines were open 24 hours, but some services may be limited between 10 pm and 7 am. That sounded like it should be pretty safe, given that it was now after 7 am.

So I phoned them.

"Please press 1 to..."

Beep

"Please enter your account number"

Beep beep beep beep beep beep -- oh bugger

"Please press 1 if correct, press 2 if incorrect"

2

"Please enter your account number"

Beep beep beep beep beep beep beep beep beep beep beep beep beep

"Please press 1 to..."

Beep

"Please press 1 to..."

Beep

"I'm sorry, we are closed until 8 am. Please phone back later".

Well, that was 5 minutes of my life I was never going to get back.

Anyway, I tried again after breakfast, and after going through all the rigmarole of pressing various options and entering my account number, I finally got to speak to Paul, who sounded like he wasn't completely awake yet.

I explained that I had not received the email confirming the deal I had been given, and Paul seemed to struggle to understand this concept.

He pointed out that terms and conditions were posted on the Vodafone website. That's not the point, I explained, I wanted confirmation of the specific tariff that I was being offered. I pointed out that the person who signed me up had promised to send me an email. Paul said that they don't do business by email, so they didn't send emails to customers.

I asked why the person who signed me up had asked for my email address and promised to email me the details.

Paul didn't know.

However, when pressed, Paul did say that they had sent an old fashioned letter in the post to confirm the terms under which I'd signed up. I'm not sure I believe him. It took a lot of prompting for me to get this information out of him, and I can't see why he wouldn't have volunteered it earlier had it been true. I suspect that this was just a ruse to get me off the phone, given that there was no way in which I could immediately prove him wrong, as he said they only sent the letter yesterday and today's post had not yet arrived. This seems to be a common tactic by people in call centres for big utility companies. They know that when you phone back later even more annoyed that not only did what was supposed to happen not happen, but also they lied to you about it, the chances that they will have to take the call again will be miniscule and it will now be someone else's problem.

Time will tell.

I was also told on Saturday that the phones would arrive today, and that my other half (who often works at home and is doing so today) would receive a text message at about 8 am to advise her what time the phones would arrive. By the time I left the house at 8.30 this morning, she had not yet received a text message.

So, even before I have my phone, that's at least 2 things that have not turned out the way I was told.

I have a bad feeling about this. Fortunately, under the Distance Selling Regulations, I have 7 days to change my mind and send the phones back if I wish to. If I don't get written confirmation of the deal they offerred on the phone within that time period, I shall be making use of that facility.

Right now, I am so glad I haven't yet cancelled the contract on my old steam-powered mobile phone.

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Help! We're all doomed!

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Edited by Adam Jacobs, Friday, 28 Jan 2011, 16:28

This week's news about the "shock" contraction in the economy is exactly the sort of thing that made me want to study economics in the first place.

I have so many questions about this sort of thing, and so few answers. Although I suspect that the "so few answers" thing may be shared by a lot of fully qualified economists as well.

So, first thing: why was the contraction a shock? Why was no-one expecting it? And was it really a shock? When it's described as a shock, is that because the government hadn't predicted it, but plenty of independent economists had? I must say I don't find it that surprising myself. You only have to look around to see that the economy isn't doing well. Case in point: I went out to the pub for lunch today with some of the folks from work. The pub was almost empty. It wasn't so long ago that the pub on a Friday lunchtime would be standing room only. Surely a sign of the times.

What's really worrying is that we are seeing a contraction in the economy at the same time that inflation figures seem to be on a relentless upward trend, so called "stagflation". Apparently the traditional remedy for this is a tightening of monetary policy (ie higher interest rates) to curb the inflation, together with a loosening of fiscal policy (ie lower taxes and higher government spending) to try to stimulate the economy.

Neither looks likely in the current climate.

With the enormous fiscal deficit, surely any loosening of fiscal policy is simply not on the cards. Some commentators say we should, but the government seem to be of the view that it's not an option, because of the risk of causing a crisis in the bond markets.

Who is right? I don't know, and sadly I have a sneaking suspicion I still won't know even when I've finished my studies, although perhaps by then I might know some better questions to ask.

One thing that strikes me about all this is that talk of simple measures such as changing interest rates is likely to be such a hugely simplified version of what's really going on that it's probably not very useful. The economy is a hugely complicated thing, and I doubt that simple interventions can ever have controlled and predictable effects.

Perhaps that's why no-one appears to really understand what's going on.

 

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What is a shadow chancellor for?

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So, we have a new shadow chancellor. Alan Johnson has gone, and now we have Ed Balls.

Johnson famously said that he'd need to read a primer on economics. Well, at least he's honest about it. George Osborne, the real chancellor, is completely unqualified in economics too, although to be fair, managing the trust fund he got from his daddy is probably not that far off having to manage the budget for a small country.

Balls is a career politician who has never worked as an economist in real life, although of course he does have some experience in economics from having worked at the treasury. Whether the experience of being responsible for much of crashing the UK economy is good experience is another matter, of course.

But does any of this matter?

Actually, I don't think it does. I really can't see the point of a shadow chancellor. It's not as if the government are likely to listen to anything he says. And since we have a system of utterly tribal punch-and-judy politics, it doesn't really matter what the shadow chancellor thinks about any economic issue: in practice, if there is a vote on any economic issue in Parliament, the Labour party will vote against whatever the government does. No thought needs to go into that process.

In the last year or so before a general election, then the role of shadow chancellor is more relevant, as it is important in allowing the opposition to formulate their economic policy for their election manifesto.

But as we are potentially over 4 years away from an election, I really don't see that it matters whether the shadow chancellor role is taken by Alan Johnson, Ed Balls, or Donald Duck.

 

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Old & Sad politics

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This blog was mainly for blogging about economics, the subject that drew me to study with the OU. However, I'm going to digress a little today and write about politics instead. That's OK, because I'm currently studying module DD101, "Introduction to the social sciences", which is quite a wide ranging course with a bit of politics thrown in as well.

And besides, it's my blog, so I can write what I like.

So, politics. I feel thoroughly depressed by the result of yesterday's Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election, which was won by the Labour candidate. My dismay at this result has nothing to do with any party politics, and I don't wish to make any comment here about which party is better qualified to sort out the economic mess that the country is in and run the country generally.

No, what I find depressing is that the voters in this by-election didn't seem to care about the events leading to the by-election. Just a reminder for anyone who missed it, the seat was won in May by the Labour candidate Phil Woolas, on the back of producing election literature that contained some disgraceful lies about his opponents. The literature was held to be illegal by an election court, and he was stripped of his seat as a result.

Pretty disgraceful behaviour, isn't it?

A rational electorate would be disgusted with that sort of behaviour. They would want to punish the people responsible. But not so the people of Oldham East and Saddleworth. They voted for another Labour candidate, as if none of this had ever happened.

Now, you might argue that the illegal leaflets were entirely down to Phil Woolas, and the new candidate was entirely innocent. To which I would say: bollocks. The illegal leaflets were hardly a secret. They had thousands of the bloody things printed. Everyone in the local Labour party must have seen them. And what did they do to stop them? Nothing. Nada. Zip. Zilch.

The entire Labour party in the Oldham East and Saddleworth constituency were surely just as responsible for the leaflets as Woolas. Woolas was held individually responsible by the court and was the person who was stripped of his seat, but to claim that the leaflets were the act of one rogue individual is deeply disingenuous.

But the voters of Oldham East and Saddleworth didn't seem to care about this. They were perfectly happy to vote in their thousands for a party that were proven liars.

Perhaps there should be no surprise here. When all the revelations about MPs' expenses were published in 2009, I thought that this could be a real game-changer in politics. I thought the electorate would want to punish the politicians responsible for betraying their trust and cheating like a bunch of common criminals. I thought that the general election in May last year would see huge numbers of candidates from smaller parties and independent candidates, untainted by the expenses scandal, returned to Parliament.

But no. We saw the 3 main parties, who had so utterly betrayed the trust of the electorate, returned to Parliament to carry on where they left off.

I find all this incredibly depressing. It seems that the majority of voters are unaffected by these issues, and presumably vote unthinkingly for the party they have always voted for.

This sends a clear message to politicians: "You, the politicians, can lie, cheat, and generally betray our trust as much as you like, and we, the utterly supine bunch of sheep that pass for an electorate, will just let you get on with it."

An Old & Sad day for politics indeed.

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More on mobile phones

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Edited by Adam Jacobs, Wednesday, 12 Jan 2011, 16:36

I wrote a few days ago about my dismay at the mobile phone industry, and the way in which they seemingly go out of their way to discourage me from replacing my old phone with a whizzy new smartphone. I have just seen some more information that reinforces my impression that the mobile phone industry have seriously lost their way.

One of the supposed advantages of smartphones is that they are capable of delivering rich multimedia content, such as YouTube clips. This is a feature of smartphones that is specifically advertised by the mobile phone companies in an attempt to persuade you that you should buy one. Here is an example of an advert for one particular smartphone on the T-Mobile website. Note the specific reference to watching YouTube videos.

But hold on a minute, another page on the T-Mobile website describes their so-called "fair use policy" for using internet data from smartphones. In that page, they tell you, in the sort of tone normally reserved for telling off naughty schoolboys, that you really shouldn't be using your mobile phone for downloading video. I quote:

"If you want to download, stream and watch video clips, save that stuff for your home broadband."

So, T-Mobile, please could you make up your mind? Are smartphones intended to be used for viewing rich content or not? If they are not, then why are you advertising them for that purpose? And if they are, then why are you telling off your users when they use their phones for what you tell them they can do in your adverts?

This does not make me more likely to want to buy a smartphone.

Update 12 Jan 16:35

It would appear that T-Mobile have now become rather embarrassed about the page I linked to, and have changed it. You can see the original here.

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Mobile phones

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As an economics student, I have a great many questions about economics, and I am hoping to find some answers over the course of my studies. For example: what was the real cause of the recent economic meltdown? Was it really a meltdown or just part of the normal cyclical way of things? Did quantitative easing make things any better? How do bankers get away with such huge bonuses? Would there have been a crisis in the bond markets if the coalition government hadn't embarked on such an ambitious austerity programme? What would have happened if banks like Northern Rock and RBS had been allowed to fail?

But right now, another question occurs to me: how the actual fuck does the mobile phone industry even survive, let alone manage to spawn companies that generate such obscene profits that they can cheerfully be let off a little matter of £6 billion of unpaid tax, which is presumably considered small change in the context of the profits they make.

This occurs to me because I have just started to contemplate replacing my old steam-powered mobile phone (I can't actually remember how long I've had it, but pretty sure it's at least 5 years) with one of these new-fangled smartphone thingies. I have been astonished at how difficult it is.

The first thing is that there are way too many phones on the market. There are many phone manufacturers, each of whom produces a huge number of almost identical models. How is any ordinary mortal supposed to know which one to buy?

And as far as I can tell, the phones don't even work properly. For example, the iPhone has a well publicised fault which is that it doesn't work if you hold it in your left hand. Apple's response? Don't hold it in your left hand. Why does anyone think that's acceptable? And when I asked some of my Twitter followers for recommendations, someone came back saying she was really pleased with her phone, and the only problem is that it sometimes overheats and has to be rebooted. What on earth must the phones that people aren't pleased with be like?

And then it comes to choosing a network. The mobile phone networks seem to go out of their way to make their charging structure as opaque as possible. They all calculate costs in different ways. Trying to find out, for example, how much it would cost me to use a phone abroad, has defeated me.

And it's not like I'm no good with numbers. I'm a statistician for my day job and I have a PhD and everything.

There's also the problem of reliability of coverage. More often than not, when a friend has been showing off their whizzy new smartphone and tried to demonstrate a feature that required connecting to the internet, the phone was unable to connect. And this is mostly in London, which is hardly a rural backwater. So where am I supposed to get reliable data on network reliability?

Seriously, the whole thing is just so bloody complicated that I am tempted just to give up and stick with my existing phone for a few years more.

How do the phone companies get away with it? The only thing I can think of is that there are huge numbers of people who regard their phone as a fashion accessory, and feel that they always have to have the latest model if they want to look "cool". So they will always pay good money to upgrade to the latest model no matter how much of a pain it is.

So it seems to me that the business model of the entire mobile phone industry is based on fashion. That doesn't sound sensible to me. As anyone old enough to remember flared trousers will know all too well, fashions change.

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Bankers bonuses

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Edited by Adam Jacobs, Friday, 7 Jan 2011, 17:12

I wrote the other day about my suspicions that part of the problem for the economic mess we're in is a result of shareholders not taking a sufficiently keen interest in the governance of the companies they own.

One of the problems is bankers bonuses, a topic that has just reared its ugly head again.

Now, in this case, there is absolutely no excuse for shareholders in some of our banks not taking an interest. I refer specifically to the Lloyds Banking Group, RBS, Northern Rock, and Bradford & Bingley.

What do all those banks have in common? They all had to be rescued by the taxpayer during the financial crisis, and now the British government is a major shareholder, and indeed a majority shareholder in all but Lloyds Banking Group.

The government tells us they don't approve of excessive bonuses. And yet they seem quite content to let the banks pay billions of pounds of what is now taxpayers' money to some highly paid individuals within the banks.

Why are they doing that?

The bankers would have us believe that it is necessary to pay enormous salaries and bonuses to attract talented people. That argument is very hard to believe. For one thing, exactly how talented are these people? They managed to screw things up on a scale seldom seen.

For another thing, what is the evidence that banks would not be able to recruit competent staff if they paid much smaller salaries? I dare say some of the things bankers do is quite tricky. Nursing is also quite tricky. Plenty of people are willing to be nurses despite being paid about as much per year as some bankers get paid per week.

A typical post-doctoral research scientist does an incredibly difficult job, requiring skills that very few people have, and typically is paid less than £30K (that's per year, not per week just in case anyone is still thinking in terms of bankers' salaries).

Although pay is an important motivator, it is certainly not the only thing that motivates people. Even in the absence of these huge bonuses, it is unlikely many bankers would be poorly paid. A good employer should be able to attract good staff without needing to pay stratospheric bonuses. In a properly functioning free market, bankers' pay would reach a level which is high enough to ensure that suitably qualified people are willing to do the job, but no higher.

In other words, a rational employer would not pay stratospheric bonuses if they didn't need to.

It seems to me that bankers pay themselves huge bonuses for one simple reason: because they can.

Shareholders should not allow this. It is understandable that they do for companies owned by institutional shareholders, as I wrote the other day.

But when the government owns the companies, it is much harder to understand why they are complicit in this injustice.

The bankers were a major force in the complete rogering of the economy that has caused so much pain for so many over the last couple of years. They are being rewarded for that with billions of pounds of our money.

Seriously, why are we not rioting in the streets about this?

 

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VAT increase

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Edited by Adam Jacobs, Tuesday, 4 Jan 2011, 11:42

Today sees a rise in the standard rate of VAT from 17.5% to 20%. Now, as I've mentioned before, I'm not an expert in economics, I'm a beginning economics student, so my thoughts on this subject may be ill-informed or based on misunderstandings. But I'll share them with you anyway. Do feel free to point out in the comments if there's anything you think I've got wrong.

3 questions spring to my mind about this VAT increase. Is it necessary? Is it fair? And what effect will it have on the economy?

As for whether it's necessary, the first thing to say is that some kind of tax rise is surely necessary. The Labour government spent taxpayers' money like a drunken sailor and left us with such a mind-bogglingly huge budget deficit that it is inconceivable that the hole could be plugged by either budget cuts or tax rises alone. Both are necessary. But as for whether VAT is necessary, that depends on how it stacks up against possible alternatives.

So on to the next question: is it fair? There seems to be a broad consensus among politicians that progressive taxes are fair and regressive taxes are not. Progressive taxes are those paid more by the poor than by the rich, and regressive taxes are those paid disproportionately by the poor.

So is VAT progressive or regressive?

Many commentators describe VAT as a regressive tax. See here, here, and here for examples. Even David Cameron himself described it as regressive, although it should be noted that that was what he said before the election, when he also said he wasn't going to put the VAT rate up.

And we all know that what politicians say before the election doesn't count.

However, I don't think it's as simple as that. In one sense, VAT is not as progressive as putting up the basic rate of income tax. People at the bottom end of the income distribution, who don't pay income tax, are not affected by a rise in the rate of income tax, but are hurt by a rise in VAT.

However, they are not hurt very much. Remember that VAT is not charged on most essential items, most notably food and rent. If you are poor, most of your expenditure goes on food and rent. If you are rich, a much higher proportion of your expenditure goes on luxury items which attract VAT, so you probably pay more VAT. So I suspect that overall, VAT is a lot more progressive than most people give it credit for. It would be interesting to know if there are any reliable statistics on how much VAT is paid as a proportion of income by different income groups, but I don't have those to hand.

So what about the effects on the economy?

I can think of 2 ways in which it could have an effect: reducing consumer demand, and increasing inflation.

There is no doubt that increasing VAT will reduce consumer demand. If prices go up, then demand must fall. I may not be an expert in economics, but that seems pretty basic. How much demand falls is, of course a harder question to answer. Will it fall be enough to make a big dent in the economy? I doubt it, but time will tell.

But it's also worth considering whether it's a good thing if consumer demand goes down. Didn't we end up in the mess we're in partly because everybody borrowed too much and spent too much? If people are less tempted to splash out on a 56 inch plasma screen TV and pay off a bit of their mortgage instead, would that be such a bad thing?

After all, one of the first signs of the current financial crisis was the run on Northern Rock. Northern Rock's problem was that they had lent far more in mortgages than they had received from savers, and they found themselves unable to fund all those mortgages when funding from wholesale money markets became harder. So their problem was caused by people borrowing too much and saving too little.

Of course we need people to spend money, because that's what keeps the economy going. As we attempt a fragile recovery from a nasty recession, it could be argued that spending money is more important than ever. However, is the domestic market the be-all and end-all of the recovery? I suspect that the economy needs to focus more on exports than on domestic demand if we are going to see our economy recover strongly from the recession, so perhaps a small dip in domestic demand is less of a problem than it seems.

The other effect of the VAT increase is that it fuels inflation. At first sight, that seems a bit artificial: underlying prices have not increased, any jump in inflation is due to a one-off tax increase. However, it will feed through to official inflation figures, and of course it does mean that there is a very real increase in the price that ordinary people pay for things, so it could feed through into higher wage increases, which would then cause further inflation. That doesn't seem too big a danger at the moment, when many people are thankful that they have a job at all and many employers, struggling to survive the harsh economic climate, are not contemplating any wage increases at the moment.

But the cynic in me wonders whether the government are actually quite keen to see rising inflation. Our national debt is huge, and is going to take a long time to pay back. One cunning plan for making it easier to pay back would be to have a period of high inflation, which would erode the real-terms value of the national debt, thus making it easier to pay back.

I have no idea whether the government are thinking along those lines or not, but I'm sure the idea must at least have crossed their mind.

Does it even matter if we do see a period of high inflation? It probably does if you're a pensioner and reliant on the value of your savings, which would be eroded by inflation, but I suspect it may not matter so much for others, and for anyone with a mortgage, inflation also erodes the value of the mortgage. Of course high inflation tends to lead to high interest rates, which is bad news for mortgage holders.

Clearly there are winners and losers from high inflation, and I suspect that overall it's a bad thing, but it may not be quite the apocalyptic scenario that some people believe.

So, after all that, do I think that the VAT increase is a good idea? On balance, probably yes. In an ideal world, I'd rather not have to face any tax increases at all, but given that we do have to have them, VAT is probably one of the least painful. Unlike income tax, paying VAT is largely voluntary, as it's charged mostly on things that you don't absolutely have to buy (although of course there are exceptions). I certainly think it's a better option than putting up employers' national insurance: when we are faced with rising unemployment, the last thing we should be doing is increasing taxes on job creation.

As for the effects on the economy, time will tell, but my guess is a VAT increase is probably less harmful than most of the alternatives.

What do you think? Do let me know with the comments form below.

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The economic crash and shareholder involvement

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Edited by Adam Jacobs, Friday, 31 Dec 2010, 12:02

I have recently started studying with the OU because I wanted to learn about economics. I find it a fascinating subject, but know almost nothing about it.

A cynic might say that makes me indistinguishable from most economists. I couldn't possibly comment, although I hope that by the time I've finished my studies, I will.

I am still at an early stage of my studies, currently doing DD101 "introduction to social sciences", which the OU recommend as the best place to start with studying economics.

So, this is going to be the first of an occasional series of blogs about the economics issues of the day, from the point of view of someone who doesn't understand very much about them. Hopefully they'll get better informed and more insightful over time.

The subject of today's blog is the role of shareholder involvement in the recent banking crisis. I heard a fascinating piece on Today this morning (listen to it here) talking about why the banking system went so horribly wrong. There were many reasons put forward, but one that particularly caught my attention was the role of shareholders.

The theory was that shareholders in banks were not exercising their duty to ensure that the banks were acting their best interests. In theory, shareholders in banks should always vote to ensure that banks act in their interests, because, well, it's in their interest. So for example, rational shareholders should never approve the payout of excessive bonuses (ie bonuses greater than strictly needed to attract and incentivise good staff), because keeping bonuses to more reasonable levels would leave more money to be paid to shareholders as dividends. Rational shareholders should also not allow the boards of banks to implement strategies involving crazy amounts of risk.

But clearly, they did. Why is that?

I don't really know, but there are 2 things that strike me as contributing to the problem. The first is the increasing popularity of high frequency trading, now estimated to account for 70% of all trades. High frequency traders have no interest in corporate governance. Their strategy is based on micro-fluctuations in share prices over minutes or even seconds, and the corporate strategies of the companies they are buying are therefore irrelevant to them.

The second is that a large number of shares are held by pension funds (and other equity based funds), and there is therefore an extra layer of separation between the shareholders and the companies they own. Much of my pension fund is invested in equities, but I have no involvement in the companies my fund has invested in, as I don't directly own the shares. That's the job of my pension's fund manager, and I have to trust that he or she is doing a good job of voting responsibly at shareholder meetings.

But can I trust in that?

I don't know. But I'm a bit worried that there may be a problem here. Pension fund managers are highly paid city types. People in banks who take excessive bonuses are highly paid city types. On the whole, people tend to look after their own. Whose interest is my fund manager most closely aligned with? It's probably easier to approve a payout of excessive bonuses when those bonuses are going to your mates.

And is my fund manager incentivised to look after the prospects for long-term stable growth of the companies my pension is invested in, or is there an incentive for taking risks with the potential for big gains in the short term, even if it does all go tits up a few years down the line?

I don't know the answers to any of these questions. This is part of the reason why I'm keen to study economics. But the questions do worry me.

Are you worried? Let me know in the comments below.

Permalink 3 comments (latest comment by Roger Wallace, Sunday, 2 Jan 2011, 11:47)
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Me on top of Skiddaw

Back to school!

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This post is largely to test whether the blog works, but is also to say that I am very excited about going back to school again.

I've been coming to realise over the last couple of years what a fascinating subject economics is, so I am thrilled to have the opportunity to be able to study it in some depth.

I have absolutely no idea whether anyone else will ever see this blog, but if you do, and there is a working comment feature, it would be great if you could leave a comment just to say hi.

Permalink 2 comments (latest comment by Rohullah Yakobi, Thursday, 23 Sep 2010, 12:27)
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