OU blog

Personal Blogs

Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki

On the OBR's Overlapping Generations (OLG) model

Visible to anyone in the world
Edited by Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki, Saturday, 26 Apr 2025, 13:04

Great spending some much valued time asking clarification questions about an open role at the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) - reporting directly to its Senior Economist. The role is a perfect fit at first glance. I like it because its responsibilities include ownership of a mixture of economic modelling and publishing work. The OBR was formed in May 2010 by the (then) Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rt Hon. George Osborne, who at the time felt that more scrutiny was required to justify UK Government's fiscal positioning in relation to its borrowing path. Enter the OBR, an independent forecaster, which puts out its own research to hold the government to account. The significance of this Great British arms-length body is as one of three government pillars – the other two being the Treasury and the Bank of England.

Speaking with Senior Economist James Watson (OBR), via Teams, who the Economist/Data Scientist role reports to, the very first thing I asked him, ten seconds in, was for clarification on this April 2025 working paper which he co-authored alongside Adam Brzezinski (Bank of England) and Arno Hantzsche (London School of Economics and Political Science). What was I thinking? Well, my idea was simply around a so-called No-Ponzi constraint that Dr. Stefan Niemann (University of Konstanz) mentioned to his students in an advanced macro lecture in the old LTB. No-Ponzi is transversal and can exist as a boundary condition on the terminal value of the household budget in the infinitely-lived agent model of the UK economy. However, as James clarified, since its inception in 2010, the OBR has moved gradually towards an overlapping generations (OLG) framework where finite time is considered more pragmatic. As such, the household’s budget has a crucial distinction from the infinitely-lived model. Since the No-Ponzi constraint is an endogenous factor in most neo-classical growth models, which I have encountered, I wanted to know what James thought about its omission from the OBR’s modelling framework – a framework, which the successful applicant will be responsible for upholding and progressing.

The OLG paper is a great read. Just over halfway in you'll find it to be highly nostalgic to some of my previous work on economic growth, and a thrill to review partly because from a 'Labor Econ' perspective, it has two central provisions which fascinate me. First and foremost and importantly, the omission of inheritances, which imply “asset holdings may not be negative,” and secondly, in line with standard Ramsey model intuition – a life-cycle problem which is in-fact an i.i.d stylized fact that accounts for “annual variation in pay” across time in the OLG model. Yes, this is something I mentioned to James. He speaks very eloquently on the model’s structure, which I notice also includes a perfectly-competitive market-clearing wage and a fabled interest rate, which depend on the OLG’s standard transversality condition.

James (unsure if his name is pronounced in Spanish dialect or not) revealed he works alongside three important senior execs within the OBR – one being Richard Hughes, the other being David Miles and last but not least, Tom Josephs, who each form the budget responsibility committee of the OBR and have a good relationship with the organisation. Shortly after, I revealed my approval of the civil service recruiting process to James at that particular juncture. What I found interesting is the time it takes for the OBR to publish its proprietary research. Some 3-6 months it can take and indeed it took James, Adam and Arno that long to publish the OLG paper this month. Hopefully, we can keep the great work going if I am selected to join the OBR team. For now, I look forward to a positive reply from the civil service recruitment team.

Great call.

Permalink
Share post
Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki

Example: Ozempic (Semaglutide) as an effective intervention for adults with type-2 diabetes

Visible to anyone in the world
Edited by Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki, Wednesday, 23 Apr 2025, 06:25

Interpreting and adapting Cochrane’s “PICO”framework to the example of a systematic review of literature on type-2 diabetes concerning patients who may be positively affected as a result of the possible interventions offered by a new patented drug such as Ozempic, what one finds is a perfect example of a T1 or T2 research opportunity. Depending on how you might categorise such a study.

But because it is scientific in its premise first and foremost as opposed to being focused on the science of applicability we’ll call it T1.5. One might define the T1.5 research question (using a PICO systematic review) as follows:

  • Population: Working age adults with type-2 diabetes
  • Intervention: Measuring the long-term effects of Ozempic (Semaglutide)
  • Comparisons: Studies that measure against no treatment
  • Outcomes: Blood sugar levels (for example)
Therefore, the appropriate title of the study in the above example may be:

Measuring the long-term effects of Ozempic (Semaglutide) on blood sugar levels in working age adults with type-2 diabetes.” 

What I love about this it is a very simple and repeatable formula for successful research question design. More from me shortly.

Permalink
Share post
Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki

Notes on: Barling, Weber and Kelloway (1996)

Visible to anyone in the world
Edited by Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki, Monday, 21 Apr 2025, 19:36

In their classic Journal of Applied Psychology research article, Julian Barling and co-authors study a leadership training intervention in the structure of PICO (a common model for systematic reviews) and in doing so have been cited over 2640 times by their peers in the field. One such citation is in Gubbins’ and Rousseau (2015:111).

  • Participants: Managers in transformational leadership
  • Intervention: The design of effective training
  • Comparison: No training or ineffective training
  • Outcome: attitudinal and financial outcomes

References

Barling, J., Weber, T., & Kelloway, E. K. (1996). Effects of transformational leadership training on attitudinal and financial outcomes: A field experiment. Journal of applied psychology81(6), 827 - https://doi.org/10.1037/0021-9010.81.6.827

Gubbins, C., & Rousseau, D. (2015). Embracing translational HRD research for evidence-based management: Let’s talk about how to bridge the research-practice gap. Human Resource Development Quarterly26(2), 109-122 - https://doi.org/10.1002/hrdq.21214

Permalink
Share post
Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki

STICERD Economic Theory Seminars - Samuelson and Guth

Visible to anyone in the world
Edited by Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki, Sunday, 20 Apr 2025, 13:21

Happy Easter!

An e-mail I just sent to Sadia Ali at LSE:

I hope you're doing well. I noticed that Professor Larry Samuelson (Yale) will be giving a class seminar on 1 May 2025, and I’d be grateful if you could kindly pass along a message to him. I recently completed a paper commemorating Werner Güth’s contributions to game theory—his pioneering work has profoundly impacted the field.

Prior literature on two-firm two-market and two-stage extended dynamic models has introduced what Guth (2016) succinctly terms a social dilemma. A state in which conglomerate firms competing in a Bertrand duopoly consider jointly optimizing profits under a tacit self-enforcing agreement to deter market entry. This theoretical article reinterprets the social dilemma highlighted by Guth (2016 ...
arxiv.org

Shortly after finishing the paper, I came across this article (below), and I was pleasantly surprised to see that Professor Samuelson has also paid thoughtful tribute to Güth’s legacy. It would be wonderful if LSE could consider hosting a seminar in honour of Werner Güth at some point in the future. Many would appreciate the opportunity to reflect on and celebrate his influence.

Werner Güth's ultimatum game played a key role in the development of multiple research areas, several of which are highlighted.
doi.org

Looking forward to Samuelson's seminar. If it's anything like Andrea Galeotti's (LBS) seminar, we should all be in for an amazing experience.
Permalink
Share post
Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki

Embracing Translational HRD Research for EBM

Visible to anyone in the world
Edited by Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki, Saturday, 19 Apr 2025, 14:13

Having read the first few pages of Gubbins and Rousseau (2015), the premise of the paper is starting to become more interesting to me. Gubbins and Rousseau refer to a coupled concept of translational research: T1 (research focused on science and inference) and T2 (research focused on implementing outcomes from T1). Both concepts are distinct and separate. T2 is ultimately focused on strategizing new models of T1 in practice which Gubbins and Rousseau (2015) readily attribute to the medical field and management field.

In my opinion, a Ministerial policy briefing is very implicated in this undertaking of Gubbins and Rousseau (2015). A recent conference I attended in 2024 on bridging research and policy demonstrated how scientific research is in Government used by civil servants and converted into policy for Ministers of various Departments. This is very much a summary task which takes place after research has been peer-reviewed and published.

While I like to think my arXiv papers on Nash theory are scientific (or at least mathematical), in the attached we find a paper by Prof. Barbara Sahakian who speaks eloquently in a T2 format on how risk and the psychology of decisions lead to new models of thinking. This article was first offered to me on a visit to Enterprise Tuesday at Cambridge, and typifies the value of T2 research outputs. By this reckoning it’s probably agreeable that T1 and T2 aren't compatible in forming a single paper.

Aside from being accredited by independent organisations, business schools are subject to the Research Excellence Framework (REF) and of course the Teaching Excellence Framework (TEF), but while not reflective of what Gubbins and Rousseau refer to as "purpose" and value for money" (pp.109), can be interpreted as being important to answering such questions of existence and impact. Sahakian's research, which was promoted by the Judge Business School, is an example of Gubbins and Rousseau's (2015) central and distinctive argument.

Right now, I'm led to believe that a strategy that withdraws funding from low-scoring business schools and rewards high-scoring schools is a highly appropriate way of gauging the value for money provided by the Government to business schools in HE institutions.

References

Gubbins, C., and Rousseau, D. M. (2015). Embracing Translational HRD Research for Evidence-Based Management: Let’s Talk About How to Bridge the Research-Practice Gap. Human Resource Development Quarterly26(2), 109–125. https://doi.org/10.1002/hrdq.21214

Permalink
Share post
Attachments:
application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.presentationml.presentationRL Con 2014.pptx
Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki

First Read of Gubbins and Rousseau (2015) and RL Conference 2014.

Visible to anyone in the world
Edited by Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki, Saturday, 19 Apr 2025, 12:35

Reading Gubbins and Rousseau (2015), the first thing I realised is its very critical of Government's perception of University funding, which reminded me of a few interesting examples where I had encountered first-hand how research and practice are mutually disaggregated. Then I recalled when I attended a 1-day workshop held by Recruitment Leaders Connect. Bill Boorman was the instructor for the day leading us through the presentation, bless his socks. He was a great speaker nonetheless. 

I remember it like it was yesterday. I was sat next to Howard and Billy, who each were presenting two contrasting bits of information. Howard, how recruitment process outsourcing (RPO) was the next big thing in recruitment. and Billy who was a 360 recruiter, was outright promoting the contingent agency recruiter grind.

This then reminded me of Gubbins' and Rousseau (2015) who in their paper mention this coupled concept of translational research - where research on theory informs interventions and outcomes in practice. What's so important about this. What does it represent? How does it apply to my example of Howard and RPO at the conference I attended? and HRD in practice, more generally?

The truth is I don't yet know and I can only guestimate because there are various factors at play. Race, level of experience, cultural competences, differences and significances across time between RPO and agency work. But what I do know is (academic) research can be seen to inform events such as Recruitment Leaders Connect - to an extent. If you believe I am talking rubbish, I am not. All you have to do is watch UChicago's YouTube video on how to write academically to understand that academia can be a very self-centered profession that occasionally misses and ignores its various audiences. 

As Gubbins and Rousseau (2015: 110) put it in their article: "Bennis and O’Toole (2005) argued that business schools emphasize research that speaks to the concerns of academics, while ignoring the connections to problems of management practice. According to their logic, by ending the knowledge generation process with articles that only other academics read, business schools are on a path to their own irrelevance."

I'll aim to complete Gubbins and Rousseau before I reflect conclusively on my opinion on these existential questions.

References

Gubbins, C., and Rousseau, D. M. (2015). Embracing Translational HRD Research for Evidence-Based Management: Let’s Talk About How to Bridge the Research-Practice Gap. Human Resource Development Quarterly, 26(2), 109–125. https://doi.org/10.1002/hrdq.21214

Permalink
Share post
Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki

CPD, Cochrane and Systematic Reviews

Visible to anyone in the world
Edited by Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki, Saturday, 19 Apr 2025, 12:35

So, I just completed 'Module 1: An Introduction to Systematic Reviews' yesterday - it is an online short course offered by Cochrane Training, and I am now a pleased bunny. Here's why:

a) The article I am about to read from the Open University Library entitled: "Embracing Translational HRD Research for Evidence-Based Management: Let's Talk About How to Bridge the Research-Practice Gap" by Gubbins and Rousseau (2015) was found after I pursued a hunch I had. 

b) That hunch was that there must be a model in place that clearly explains how HRD Evidence, Strategy, and Policy are correlated in an orderly manner. After scouring another article by Nimon and Astakhova (2015) entitled "Improving the Rigor of Quantitative HRD Research: Four Recommendations in Support of the General Hierarchy of Evidence," I stumbled on the FINER (Feasible, Interesting, Novel, Ethical, Relevant) model, and by extension, the SPIDER model (sample, phenomenon of interest, design, evaluation, research type), which is "designed specifically to identify relevant qualitative and mixed-method studies" (Methley, Campbell and Chew-Graham et. al., 2014).

c) However, I realised quite quickly that FINER albeit a good model, wasn't enough of a repetitive approach, so I ran to Cochrane's online course (it's in my tabs) to quickly learn about PICO - i.e., the systematic approach mandating "Participants, Interventions, Comparisons, and Outcomes" as structured interrelational components. All well-conducted systematic reviews always start by stating the question in PICO form! 

To recap:

  • Define question - I learned via Cochrane how PICO helps to define the research question in a more systematic format than FINER (and possibly more than SPIDER)
  • Plan criteria - I learned about study protocols, which are plans that must be made for the systematic review to be conducted
  • Conduct a review - this links back to the idea of my model in my previous post.

Wish me luck as I read Gubbins and Rousseau (2015).

Permalink
Share post
Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki

HRD Evidence, Strategy and Policy

Visible to anyone in the world
Edited by Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki, Thursday, 17 Apr 2025, 21:12

So, I've read the module outline and have a brief idea how the process of creating impactful difference in Human Resource Development (HRD) looks from an academic perspective.

I've noted HRD Professionals and Consultants should, when aiding an organization:

  • Highlight L&D Challenges, Difficulties and Obstacles is the starting point - Ascertain organization hurdles
  • Follow Evidence-Based Philosophy - Briner's 6 A's in an organizational context
  • Source Relevant HRD Data - Based on informed conversation, surveys, and feedback from colleagues
  • Pinpoint a credible HRD Strategy - Decide on the approach
  • Inspect and Engage Empirical Data - Run regressions, spot patterns that respond to and inform the challenge
  • Create and Finalise HRD Policy - This is the final step in my notes from the module outline and involves amalgamating the challenges with relevant solutions that are most widely accepted to be unique to the original obstacle.

How close is this to the actual accepted process? 

NB: I also found that this optional module structure is very consistent with the other F93 modules (it includes critical perspectives, theory and practice, ethics, and sustainability), making the module content very digestible and much easier to follow.

Thank you Open University for a great welcome and equally impressive introduction to the module.

Permalink
Share post
Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki

Supervisory Handouts - Economics of Labour Markets

Visible to anyone in the world
Sharing some content on cooperative sequential games, because it cites my paper on Pareto-Nash. Cheeky plug. Big believer in research-driven impact.

Class on the Economics of Labour Markets

Speak soon!
Alfred
Permalink
Share post
Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki

🚨🚨 New arXiv e-print announcement 🚨🚨

Visible to anyone in the world

I’m pleased to share with my fellow Open University colleagues that my recent article has been accepted for publication on arXiv.org.

This paper presents a study into an econometric analysis of competitive equilibria through the lens of static game theory. Specifically, it applies Bertrand's duopoly framework—where prices converge to marginal cost at equilibrium—to illustrate how Pareto efficiency can arise when forbearance emerges as a strategic profile under conditions of incomplete information.

🔗 Read the full article here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.22825

Permalink
Share post
Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki

Monopsony, Efficiency, and Models of Switching

Visible to anyone in the world
Edited by Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki, Sunday, 16 Mar 2025, 14:45

Occasionally, you may find yourself writing a script or paper to explain a concept using mathematical models. Personally, I don’t follow a strict process, but I strive to be as systematic as possible. In hindsight, when reviewing research, you might uncover a previous article that contains a significant and unexpected correlation to what you’ve just written.

This is exactly what happened to me with my first arXiv preprint. According to OpenAI's new paid Deep Research feature, I built upon a widely popularized model based on one of the early articles by former IMF Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard. To be clear, my preprint focuses on oligopolistic pricing and the regulation of signaling by competition authorities during economic downturns.

Blanchard has been an influential figure for some time, not because he always represents the voice of reason, but because his views often challenge the prevailing consensus in contemporary thought. One particular article of his resonated with me deeply, such that I have seemingly inadvertently reiterated the key points from his 1987 paper with Kiyotaki. Specifically, his use of Ackerlof and Yellen's (1985) efficiency wages and the menu cost model. The similarities are striking.

There is sometimes unwarranted hype around menu costs, which refer to the costs associated with altering the price of a firm’s products. These costs are closely related to the concept of 'sticky' wages. Blanchard supports this view, acknowledging that there are macroeconomic effects associated with switching costs. I argue a similar point from the perspective of the switching costs related to wage changes. I introduce the switching cost as a variable, R(t), which forms a residual term and encapsulates this aspect of Blanchard and Kiyotaki’s framework within the bargaining process.

References

Blanchard, O.J., & Kiyotaki, N. (1987) 'Monopolistic Competition and the Effects of Aggregate Demand', American Economic Review, 77(4), pp. 647-666.

Mayaki, A. A. B. (2024) 'Pareto-Nash Reversion Strategies: Three Period Dynamic Co-operative Signalling with Sticky Efficiency Wages', arXiv pre-print, pp. 1-12

Permalink
Share post
Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki

Pluralism, The Principal-Agency Problem - Shareholders, Line Management, and Employees

Visible to anyone in the world
Edited by Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki, Thursday, 30 Jan 2025, 18:14

Road to 100k

Thanks for the 80,000 blog views. Guess what? Only 20k more to a whopping 100,000. Wow!

Anyway, so, this morning, I was prompted to reflect on personal pursuits by Dr Kaul in our meeting. One thing about pursuits, both academic and professional, is that these endeavors have become relatively narrow and streamlined in recent years. The only paid work I have ever applied for or been in for have been executive staffing roles, mainly because as anyone who knows can testify, staffing is a sector I am quite interested in, alongside Learning and Development (B814), and Employee Relations (B813). 

However, as the fit notes era is well and truly behind me, I have become quite "choosy" in my adult years concerning opportunity (I guess some of us have to be) and in terms of my outlook and career potential. 

In utopia, I tabled the pursuit (it is much rather an aspiration) of becoming a Research Assistant (Post-Doc) to a prominent Professor of HRM at London Business School or King's College's Department of Human Resources, which is a bricks-and-mortar University, which I greatly admire. 

However, even I had to acknowledge to Dr. Kaul, that there is a very small caveat that this career path inherently has. Though strikingly rich in vernacular and academic esteem, I may choose its course (spotting gaps, conducting original research, co-authoring, etc) and live to realize it was perhaps a feat only a lucky few could accomplish in their careers in academia.

That got me thinking. Whatever happened to good old shareholder capitalism

A major element of Tianxi Wang's module is controversial. We all know what shareholder capitalism is though, right? Well if you didn't, I'll briefly explain. This term generally describes theories that deal with the concern of investors as owners of corporations (Jensen and Meckling, 1976) which are equally important to the rise of startups and smaller enterprises. It aims to answer the question: How can shareholders, who have the long-term value and ownership of the firm at heart, best delegate the control of decisions made by managerial actors who are entrusted to maintain this value, to varying degrees of stewardship? This is often called the 'separation of ownership and control' in the United Kingdom and other countries.

In Jensen and Meckling's (1976) abstract, we find the familiar problem of principal agency. It reads: "We define the concept of agency costs, show its relationship to the ‘separation and control’ issue, investigate the nature of the agency costs generated by the existence of debt and outside equity, demonstrate who bears costs and why, and investigate the Pareto optimality of their existence.What exactly do Jensen and Meckling mean here by the use of the word "costs"? 

Well, Prof. Edmans, and others such as Varela (2017), have argued, that they mean agency costs, which "arise when the firm is run by a manager who owns less than 100 percent of the company—so there’s a separation between shareholders (the ‘principal’) and the manager (‘agent’) who acts on their behalf. Agency costs arise when there is a ‘divergence between the agent’s decisions and those decisions that would maximize the welfare of the principal’. Human Resources as a function, are therefore quietly implicated in a very real sense in ideas that go above and beyond the importance of something as simple and simultaneously as complex as strategic planning. We are talking more along the lines of what value, governance, and stewardship on behalf of the principal owners of a firm, are, and in what Prof. Edmans refers to - as the overall "welfare" of the firm. To sum up, shareholder capitalism is of great importance to our perceptions of pluralism in Human Resource Management as a discipline and should be given more credence and granted more clemency. 

References

1. Jensen, M.C. and Meckling, W.H. (1976) 'Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs, and ownership structure', Journal of Financial Economics, 3(4), pp. 305-360 - Available at https://www.sfu.ca/~wainwrig/Econ400/jensen-meckling.pdf

2. Edmans, A. (2021) 'What Stakeholder Capitalism Can Learn from Jensen and Meckling'. Oxford Law Blogs - Available at https://blogs.law.ox.ac.uk/business-law-blog/blog/2021/05/what-stakeholder-capitalism-can-learn-jensen-and-meckling

3. Varela, O. (2017) "Agency costs” when agents perform better than owners, Finance Research Letters, 23, pp. 103-113 - Available at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2017.07.019

Permalink Add your comment
Share post
Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki

Fabian Society's LGH Members' Policy Group Essay

Visible to anyone in the world

In my first Fabian Society policy paper, written for the Society's Local Government and Housing (LGH) Policy Group, I have attempted to carefully suggest, and to an extent, solve a problem created by an imbalance between the Autumn Budget announcement by the new Chancellor (for energy consumers), given externalities and efficiency-related issues that are prevalent to tenants in Southwark. Now Labour is in Government, this report highlights a key pathway and opportunity for Labour's Net Zero and Energy Security Government Department and Labour's Council leaders in Southwark. I anticipate this essay will spur discussion on renewal toward the Chancellor's target of meeting the Treasury's projected expenditure and decarbonizing Council residences in the Camberwell and Peckham constituency.

Permalink
Share post
Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki

Understanding Society & R - Workshop

Visible to anyone in the world
Edited by Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki, Wednesday, 6 Nov 2024, 09:00
I was recently in attendance at an in-person conference where we were treated to a wonderful presentation by closer.ac.uk and the Common's librarian on longitudinal research and policy briefings. That marvelous event was on 18 September. Now, we're in early November, and thanks to the courteousness of the events manager at Understanding Society (part of ISER in Essex), I have gracefully been accepted into Essex's 2-day workshop on 21 & 22 November. If you would like to register to attend this workshop event (I think it's kind of late but please do reach out if you have an interest) you can find details on my online calendar.

Attendance at workshops is a nicety, and is more or less complementary to a few MSc modules, as I have to do a bit of research around an integrated topic: cohort and longitudinal studies (evidence-based management, essentially). Interestingly, as a requisite for registration, I was advised by Understanding Society to register at the UK Data Archive, something I first discovered in 2008/09 while I was a fresh-faced student at Essex Business School. It is a way of demonstrating to yourself and others that you know your way around.
Permalink
Share post
Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki

Selective Migration Policy and Wages in the UK and Canada

Visible to anyone in the world
Edited by Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki, Tuesday, 5 Nov 2024, 09:38

There has been a lot of insight put forward by worker's rights advocates around the debate on advantageous aspects of lower net migration over the fourteen years of a Conservative government. What springs to mind is 2019, when it published changes to freedom of movement just before Britain's rather messy withdrawal from the European Union, and during the lead-up to the 2024 General Election. The United Kingdom’s net migration rate hovered at a precariously high level relative to much larger economies such as Canada or Australia (approximately 1.22 million people migrated to the United Kingdom, while 532,000 people migrated from the United Kingdom, resulting in a net migration figure 685,000). How is a figure of 685,000 treated by policymakers and what, if anything, is the effect of the previous government's selective migration policy on the aggregate wage level of natives? 

There are two models and associated policy effects I would like to discuss here:

  • The United Kingdom’s ‘Selective Migration’ model
  • The Canadian ‘Human Capital’ model
  • The Australian model (not mentioned)
  • The U.S. model (not mentioned)

These models (UK and Canada) are very similar but also very distinct. The UK’s employer-led model is perhaps the most recently revised approach in the above. Indeed, the ‘skilled worker visa route’, which is a points-based immigration system (PBS) came into force on 1 December 2020. 

However, my concern is that pressure has been placed on Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau recently to assess and revise the Canadian ‘Human Capital’ model used by Canada in recent months (Yousif, 2024). Since Trudeau’s announcement in October, stating his government's intention to reduce immigration to Canada by 21% to 395,000 from a net migration rate of 500,000, the UK has yet to lay down the gauntlet or respond with appropriate unilateral measures.

Are we aware of the Canadian plight or the predicament of the Canadian economy? Where will defected skilled migrants go if they are turned away by both the UK and Canada? The UK’s selective migration model has come under criticism for its focus on maintaining employer rather than worker interests. If the UK is going to lead on immigration policy globally, then the new Labour government must ensure worker’s interests are protected and that another Windrush scandal is avoided (Crawford, 2020). 

We already know the migration of skilled workers from the UK to Canada and Australia can affect labour supply in entire sectors and therefore create domestic labour market gaps due to what is usually seen as a domestic skill shortage or a similarly oriented problem. With efficiency wages, what my theoretical economics paper aims to highlight is the threshold for global skills-based migration (Mayaki, 2024).

Look at this table. My question here is - is the threshold to qualify high or low given the points criteria? Is the wage level high or low given the threshold, and are our criteria relevant criteria?

Table 1: Selective MigrationPoints Criteria for Skilled Worker Route (2021)

Source: Migration Observatory analysis of Statement of changes in Immigration Rules, HC 813, p. 221–222

What, if anything, does Table 1 tell us about UK skills-based immigration? According to Leonida (2023), the Conservative government enacted a 'point-based immigration system, similar to that adopted in Australia, according to which citizens of EU states would not be favoured over non-EU citizens, and priorities would include securing a job offer, having the necessary skills to secure that job and speaking English.’ However, was there any consideration by the migration policy advisory committee responsible for deriving these thresholds on the wage effects of this policy? Especially in lieu of what policy the Canadian government intends to pursue (reduce permanent residency to 365,000 by 2025).

According to this presentation, immigration in France has markedly decreased the wages of highly educated natives and increased those of low-educated ones. Has such a study been conducted on our PBS? In the presentation, Ottaviano and Peri (2012) argue in ‘Distributional Effects of Immigration on Native Wages’ that there are limited but sub-optimal effects on the wages of native workers when PBSs are enacted domestically. Is UK wage growth optimal given its immigration level? Will this be the case in 12 months if Canada’s net migration level falls in 2025?

References

Crawford, R. (2020) ‘Why the new points-based immigration system threatens everyone's rights at work’, Trade Union Congress, Available at https://www.tuc.org.uk/blogs/why-new-points-based-immigration-system-threatens-everyones-rights-work (Accessed on 04 November 2024)

Koslowski, R. (2014). Selective migration policy models and changing realities of implementation. International Migration52(3), 26-39.

Leonida, L. et al. (2023) ‘Britain and BrExit: Is the UK more attractive to supervisors? An analysis of the wage premium to supervision across the EU’, British journal of industrial relations, 61(2), pp. 291–312. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1111/bjir.12675 (Accessed on 05 November 2024)

Mayaki, A.A. (2024) ‘Pareto-Nash Reversion Strategies: Three Period Dynamic Co-operative Signalling with Sticky Efficiency Wages’, arXiv preprint, Available at https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2406.18471 (Accessed on 05 November 2024)

Ottaviano, G. I., & Peri, G. (2012). The effects of immigration on US wages and rents: A general equilibrium approach. In Migration impact assessment (pp. 107-146). Edward Elgar Publishing. Available at https://ferdi.fr/dl/df-DbyEeT4AskUvL6DEjZ2Chudx/presentation-selective-migration-policies-and-wages-inequality-edo-a.pdf (Accessed on 04 November 2024)

Yousif, N. (2024) ‘Trudeau announces sharp cuts to Canada's immigration targets’, BBC World News, Available at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd7n3rqyjqzo (Accessed on 05 November 2024)

 


Permalink Add your comment
Share post
Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki

Human Rights and International Law

Visible to anyone in the world
Edited by Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki, Wednesday, 23 Oct 2024, 22:20

This note presents a question on the legitimacy of the so-called ‘dualist’ approach to the implementation of international law into domestic law (Ministry of Justice, 2021: ss.48)

My arguments are supported by three concise references:

  • McGoldrick’s (2001: 914) position paper on the incompatibility of UK law with the European Convention on Human Rights, which cites an area known as ‘new’ interpretive obligation
  • Transformative constitutionalism is a type of generalized political philosophy (used in a discursive context) according to Prof. Karl Klare (Hunt, 2002: 88)
  • Prof. Edwin Egede and Cheluchi Onyemelukwe’s view, according to Ebenezer Durojaye, is that the Nigerian Constitution is superior and not equivalent to the African Charter on Human and Peoples' Rights (in Nigeria) but that the African Charter should nevertheless be afforded the privilege of full effect in Nigerian Constitution (Killander, 2010:159)

How is ‘dualism’ perceived among employment law, labour law, and human rights practitioners?

References

Hunt, M. (1999). The Human Rights Act and legal culture: the judiciary and the legal profession. Journal of Law and Society26(1), 86-102. (Accessed on 23 October 2024)

Killander, M. (2010) International law and domestic human rights litigation in Africa. Pretoria University Law Press PULP. (Accessed on 23 October 2024)

McGoldrick, D. (2001). The United Kingdom's Human Rights Act 1998 in Theory and Practice. International & Comparative Law Quarterly50(4), 901-953.

Ministry of Justice (2021) ‘Human Rights Act Reform: A Modern Bill of Rights: A consultation to reform the Human Rights Act 1998’, Crown copyright, Available at https://consult.justice.gov.uk/human-rights/human-rights-act-reform/supporting_documents/humanrightsreformconsultation.pdf (Accessed on 23 October 2024)

Shale, Itumeleng. (2019). Historical perspective on the place of international human rights treaties in the legal system of Lesotho: moving beyond the monist-dualist dichotomy. African Human Rights Law Journal, 19(1), 193-218. (Accessed on 23 October 2024)


Permalink Add your comment
Share post
Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki

Research Design via Starbuck (2023)

Visible to anyone in the world
Edited by Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki, Tuesday, 15 Oct 2024, 14:10

Been a busy summer. Glad to be back on job. Just last month I was privileged enough to have attended an early career research (ECR) conference held by ESRC, UKRI and Closer.ac.uk with a plenary session presented by Commons Librarian Prof. Grant Hill-Cawthorne. Much of the conference experience involved ascertaining how good research studies are constructed, where exactly relevant sources of data are extracted from and how study results are compiled and interpreted via publication for various audiences including academia and those involved in policymaking.

https://closer.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/CLOSER-ECR24-Grant-Hill-Cawthorne-keynote.pdf

Designing a Robust MSc in HRM Dissertation Research Question

Craig Starbuck (2023) has a great entry in his book on People Analytics which explains the fundamentals of research design. He begins with a focus on the research question. In homage to the 5 A’s of evidence-based practice, Starbuck (2023) explains a simplistic design process that begins with the premise of a (null) hypothesis. The 1st A, i.e. ask, is made analogous to the following criteria in his book:

  • Internal validity refers to the robustness of the study.
  • Confounding variables refer to an extraneous variable whose presence affects the results
  • External validity (i.e. ‘the general or ‘can what we deem to work, work in general contexts'?)
  • The use of Randomization

Starbuck (2023) is a good source of short, sharp, and punchy insights. He later explores quantitative and non-experimental research approaches, particularly cross-sectional, correlational, and observational research in a people analytics context.

References

Starbuck, C. (2023) The Fundamentals of People Analytics: With Applications in R. 1st edn. Cham: Springer Nature. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-28674-2 (Accessed on 15 October 2024)

Permalink Add your comment
Share post
Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki

In Staunch Advocacy of 'Favourable' Migration Policy

Visible to anyone in the world
Edited by Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki, Thursday, 4 July 2024, 00:52
Jobs numbers are out this Friday and as a left-leaning economist, I can't help but appreciate the level of certainty around migration policy and its consequences and effects. Its precision is almost always unwaveringly irrational; either too conservative or too laissez-faire. The issue economists are having is deciding if an election process makes this scenario all the more complex. As Charles and Stephen Jr. (2013) so eloquently put it in their paper on the topic: “The possibility that poorly informed people are more likely to abstain has been adduced as a possible explanation for well-known voting regularities”.

My question here is: How else do election manifestos affect immigration policy and wage growth?

One well-researched answer has been given by my academic advisor while at Essex Economics Department, who is now teaching at Warwick Economics Department, Prof. Francesco Squintani. He agrees with the above, and in an outstanding theoretical economics paper that focuses on the micro-theory of pandering in elections, he and 2 co-authors argue that politicians overindulge in scrupulous policy announcements, to the detrimental welfare of the electorate.

This got me thinking about the task of comparing election promises (manifestos and wider announcements) in US. UK and to a lesser extent, French incumbent electoral campaigns. In his paper, Prof. Squintani argues that a politician’s motive is essentially viewed as a singular outcome - to be elected by voters - which poses an obstacle to precise information gathering and complete information because both politicians along a Hotelling location model (which is explained in the paper) pander around policies and create informational asymmetries.

I wrote in the original draft of “Pareto-Nash Reversion Strategies” (Mayaki, 2024) that burden of ascertaining skilled immigration demand must rest in the hands of institutional employers and not left at the doorstep of central government. The figures from this report by Pierce and Selee (2017) highlight the enormity of the task at hand when identifying precise immigration policy. 

Pierce and Selee (2017) argue that in the U.S. seven executive orders signed by newly elected President Donald Trump which restricted immigration policy and led to a 3.9% reduction in tourism to the United States in the first six months of 2017, a 9% reduction in newly arriving international students, and a decline in H-1B visa applications by employers’ with only 199,000 applications received that year – the lowest number since the Great Recession. These are not mercantilist numbers. If anything, they represent exactly that which won Trump’s election against H. Clinton. Promises of this sort are usually not credible, but what makes them credible is swift action immediately after an election victory as opposed to delayed implementation.

In that sense, I am completely fascinated by the discussion surrounding this WSJ / US Bureau of Labor Statistics chart, posted by Jason Furman on X (formerly known as Twitter). As Furman's argument goes, based on this chart, foreign-born workers have been and are more likely to be in post-pandemic employment (albeit at a much lower wage) than US-born workers. Furman (Former Chief Economic Adviser to President Barack Obama) says it reflects the work ethic of immigrant labor and by extension, the positive sentiment toward favorable migration policy in the United States.

My only response as a left-leaning economist is to highlight that because of an absence of a notable contribution in the form of structural unemployment shortages in the US-born population, the consensus around the debate fails to acknowledge that the wage at which workers enter the US labor market is not only directly affected by the level of legal migration, as my latest arXiv paper outlines but this threshold is often set arbitrarily and may be interrelated to the overall price level, particularly in the most populous states in America.

References

Charles, K. K., and Stephens Jr, M. (2013). Employment, wages, and voter turnout. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics5(4), 111-143, Available at https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w17270/w17270.pdf (Accessed on 03 July 2024)

Kartik, N., Squintani, F. and Tann, K. (2024) “Pandering and Elections: Information Revelation and Pandering in Elections”, University of Warwick Working Paper Series, Available at https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/staff/fsquintani/research/pandering.pdf (Accessed on 03 July 2024)

Mayaki, A (2024) “Pareto-Nash Reversion Strategies: Three Period Dynamic Co-operative Signaling with Sticky Efficiency Wages”, SSRN: Optimisation & Control e-Journal, pp. 1-12, Available at https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4858795 (Accessed on 27 June 2024)

Pierce, S. and Selee, A. (2017) “Immigration under Trump: A Review of Policy Shifts in the Year Since the Election”, Migration Policy Brief, December 2017, Available at https://www.migrationpolicy.org/sites/default/files/publications/TrumpatOne_FINAL.pdf (Accessed on 03 July 2024)


Permalink Add your comment
Share post
Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki

Congestion Externality in Search and Matching - A Theoretical Critique of Gertler-Trigari

Visible to anyone in the world
Edited by Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki, Friday, 21 June 2024, 22:11
I'm thrilled to share that my review article is now available as an open-access resource, thanks to SSRN's esteemed repository. This milestone reflects the collaborative spirit of the academic community and the commitment to knowledge sharing. The Open University Business School has been instrumental in this journey, fostering an environment where research and inquiry thrive. Thank you to Nicola Dowson from OU Library for your advice and guidance.

The main discussion related to the paper is based on this critique by a Warwick Economics Professor.

As I used a bootstrapped method and began with an identity that resembles the Pissarides/Mortensen matching function, some criticism of my paper I shall agree with concerns the relevance of the baseline 'Gertler-Trigari' model where 'congestion externality' creates some interesting rigidity.

The piece by Warwick Economics Dept's Professor, Thijs Van Rens argues there is zero 'congestion externality' in the identity I propose and in all 'GT' matching functions. I accept this claim. Most modern search and matching models operate with much of what he argues (the congestion rigidity created by firms competing for a narrow worker volume) as internalized components, usually referred to as rigidity or often as 'friction'.

Permalink Add your comment
Share post
Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki

Annual Symposium in Labour Economics 2024 (20th - 21st June)

Visible to anyone in the world
Edited by Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki, Wednesday, 22 May 2024, 00:20

Event Description

This symposium provides a forum for high-quality work in labour economics and brings together economists in the field from across Europe as well as key researchers from outside the region.

The event also provides an opportunity for researchers from different universities and countries to discuss their work in a relaxed atmosphere and to develop long-term collaborative relationships; and for young researchers to meet and discuss their work with senior economists.

Download programme.

Registration

  • This event is free and open to all, to register please email Jemila Benchikh.

Organisers

  • Alan Manning, CEPR and CEP, LSE
  • Guy Michaels, CEPR and CEP, LSE
  • Barbara Petrongolo, University of Oxford, CEPR and CEP, LSE

Venue

  • SAL 1.04, Sir Arthur Lewis Building, 32 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London WC2A 3PH

Permalink Add your comment
Share post
Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki

Open Invitation to Centre for Economic Performance Event (29th - 30th May)

Visible to anyone in the world

Workshop on the economics of crime for junior scholars. With support from the Royal Economic Society and Arnold Ventures

The Workshop on the Economics of Crime for Junior Scholars aims to bring together graduate students and junior researchers to present their research on topics related to the economics of crime and criminal justice.

The first edition of the workshop took place online in November 2021, the second one was hosted at Northeastern University in Boston in March 2023, and the third will take place at the London School of Economics in May 2024.

Download the programme here.

Keynote speaker

Anna Bindler (University of Cologne)

Organisers

Magdalena Dominguez (CEP, London School of Economics), Aria Golestani (Northeastern University) and Adam Soliman (CEP, London School of Economics)

For more information, visit cep.lse.ac.uk.


Registration

This event is free and open to all to attend in person. Register here.


CEP Crime Week

This event is part of CEP's Crime Week 2024, which also includes:


Permalink Add your comment
Share post
Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki

Encountering New Modules, and Negotiating 'New' Perspectives

Visible to anyone in the world
Edited by Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki, Thursday, 2 May 2024, 19:18

Much of the peer-reviewed literature I’ve read up on since my final year happens to be focused on the topics of Christian thought according to André du Toit and Irving Hexham. This blog was originally written in 2009 as a research proposal for one of my lecturers, H. M. Hopfl (Essex), and a potential supervisor, Dr. Ruth Watson (Cambridge). In the following blog, I engage briefly with the theme of polity from the perspective of Hexham and Du Toit in preparation for B813, which commences on 04 May 2024.

Did the Socio-Politics of Reformed Thinking Influence Social Outcomes in South Africa?

Many an author on Afrikaner Calvinism has gone to great lengths to structure books on aspects of Calvinism in the sixteenth century. Irving Hexham is an interesting contributor to Calvin’s biographical oeuvre and an inspiration when writing about the history of the Dutch Reformed Church (henceforth "DRC") and when attempting to interpret the complex ambiguities that exist in The Cape. I plan to use the debate between Hexham and Andre de Toit as the groundwork for a central discussion (which is arguably unresolved). From there it should prove possible to lay hold of some more concrete lines of discussion such as the question of worker ethic, racial discrimination, and religious separatism in the seventeenth-century age of enlightenment[1].

The groundwork of Hexham (1975) cites many authors in its critique of the Afrikaners, among them Susan Ritner (1967) who explains categorically that a decision by the 1857 Synod of the DRC to condone separate worship in the Dutch Reformed Church of South Africa shows “evidence of racial discrimination”. Hexham makes such claims as “to this day Calvinists are a small group in the DRC and their real power Is probably far less than many commentators would like to believe (1975:202). The impression given by Hexham here is one of unsavory disillusionment in the epistemology of the DRC and its relationship with Calvin’s original sixteenth-century philosophy and that of his followers in Europe.

Hexham leads us to a very interesting place in the literature, stating:

“du Toit (1847-1911) did not pretend to be an author or a television celebrity. All he claimed to do was to uphold the ideas of Dutch Calvinism in South Africa, or rather, as he would have put it, to propagate “true” Calvinism in South Africa. He admitted freely that Calvinism which he advocated originated in the Netherlands and he made no pretence about the fact that his political philosophy was based upon the views of Abraham Kuyper in the Netherlands”

Hexham writes, “It may be possible to trace back to Calvin’s theology some of the terms used by Afrikaner Nationalists as part of their political vocabulary, but most important ‘Calvinist’ theories and attitudes are ones connected with Christian-Nationialism. Yet these cannot be traced back to Calvin.”

André De Toit has published literature in direct response to the issues raised by Hexham (de Toit, 1983[2]), where he refers to “the cluster of construct that has been used to justify racial inequality and repression in latter-day Afrikaner societies” as a “historical myth” referred to as the “Calvinist paradigm of Afrikaner history”. In a latter text, de Toit (1985[3]) supports this view concerning what apartheid meant through the lens of Calvinist history by stating that “very little of this purported historical explanation will stand up to scrutiny”. Here, de Toit is referring to the central thesis of the “Calvinist paradigm of Afrikaner history; the ideology of a Chosen People functioned to legitimate racial inequality and oppression”.

To interpret fully the role of Dutch Calvinism, one must spend time researching the origins of its reform (that of the Netherlands), unlike towns in France and Scotland, Calvinism did not settle in the same manner during the fifteenth century. Also, the major work of Cornelius Van Til as well as other leading Dutch neo-Calvinists (such as Meow, Waltershtorf, and Plantinga) require one to appreciate the history of ‘presuppositional’ apologetics and its conflict with ‘classical’ apologetics within the Afrikaner tradition.

There exists a self-evidential concern relating to the principle of ‘common grace’ and the ‘covenant common grace’ which maintains controversy due to its revered conflict with both ‘prevenient’ and ‘special’ grace for its self-justification of divine potestas within Presbyterian establishments which in itself would cause a series of social phenomenon to perpetuate themselves, such as discipline and order. Furthermore, the more intellectually stimulating area of research will undoubtedly also constitute an interesting theoretical aspect; i.e. an inquisition that shall involve analyzing the doctrines that underpin Lapsariaism and Antelapsarianism concerning the Supralapsarianism advocated by Kuyper. We know the historical context of this debate goes as far back as the 1618 Synod of Dordrecht, where the confessional unity of the Reformed churches in the Netherlands[4] and South Africa can be traced to and where the departure from traditional Calvinism was arguably initially conceived. It is therefore important to distinguish the “elements of disparity” and help continue and contribute to this outstanding literature.


[1] Hexman, Irving (1975) “Dutch Calvinism and the Development of Afrikaner Nationalism”, African Affairs 79:315 (April 1980), pp. 195-208 - Available at https://www.jstor.org/stable/722119 (Accessed on 02 May 2024)

[2] De Toit, A. (1983) “No Chosen People: The Myth of the Calvinist Origins of Africaner Nationalism and Racial Ideology”, The American Historical Review, 89(4), pp. 920-952 - Available at https://www.jstor.org/stable/1874025 (Accessed on 02 May 2024)

[3] De Toit, A. (1985) “Puritans in Africa? Afrikaner “Calvinism” and Kuyperian Neo-Calvinism in Late Nineteenth-Century South Africa”, Comparative Studies in Society and History, 27(2) pp. 209-240 - Available at https://www.jstor.org/stable/178492 (Accessed on 02 May 2024)

[4] Wright, A.D. and Schilling, H. (1993) “Civic Calvinism in North-Western Germany & Netherlands: Sixteen to Nineteenth Century”, Kirksville, Mo: Sixteenth Century Journal Publishers - Available at https://www.proquest.com/openview/7afcd1e312f928a0378293d739009945/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=1817079 (Accessed on 02 May 2024)

References

1.     Meara, D. O. (1978) “Analysing Afrikaner Nationalism: The ‘Christian-National’ Assault on White Trade Unionism in South Africa”, 1934–1948. African Affairs (London). [Online] 77(306), pp. 45–72 – Available at https://www.jstor.org/stable/721347 (Accessed on 02 May 2024)


Permalink Add your comment
Share post
Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki

Scoping Review: Bayesian Inference in R

Visible to anyone in the world
Edited by Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki, Friday, 15 Mar 2024, 16:16

This one is focused on Bayesian inference. Bayes’ Theorem in combination with dynamic stochastic general equilibrium theory is really popular as a tool for monetary policy (where I first encountered its use) but also has applications in other areas such as biology and, in this case, people analytics.

Now, there are three R packages of interest. The first is a package oriented around the Markov Chain - MCMCpack (Martin, 2006), the second is deBInfer (Boersch-Supen, 2016), and most recently, there is INLA (Gomez-Rubio, 2020).

More on these later.

References

Boersch-Supen, P. H., Ryan, S. J. and Johnson, Leah, R. (2016) “deBInfer: Bayesian Inference of dynamical models of biological systems in R”, Special Feature: Technological Advances at the Interface between Ecology and Statistics, 8(4), pp. 511-518, Available at: https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.12679 (Accessed on 15 March 2024)

Gomez-Rubio, V. (2020) ‘Bayesian inference with INLA’, 1st Edition, New York: Chapman and Hall, Available at https://doi.org/10.1201/9781315175584 (Accessed on 15 March 2024)

Martin, A. D. and Quinn, Kevin. M. (2006) “Applied Bayesian Inference in R using MCMCpack”, R News, 6(1), pp. 2-7 – Available at: https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/116223/rnews06.pdf?sequence=1 (Accessed on 15 March 2024)

-------

This post was written by Alfred Anate Mayaki, a student on the MSc in HRM. It was inspired by an Economic Issues article by Sarah Brown and John Sessions entitled “Absenteeism, Presenteeism, and Shirking”.


Permalink Add your comment
Share post
Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki

Started from the Bottom: Bayesian SPNE and Probability in HRM

Visible to anyone in the world
Edited by Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki, Wednesday, 13 Mar 2024, 11:08

Bayes’ application to HRM is limited to event probability but is a topic that is mentioned in passing in a paper on shirking and presenteeism by S. Brown (2004) recommended by Dr. Andrew Bryce (Sheffield), which was written over 20 years ago this year.

Brown (2004) reads as follows:

“Such ‘shirking’ is potentially costly to firms and may incite them to undertake monitoring. BST** envisage a monitoring technology in which there is some probability, α < 1, of each absentee’s true state of health being revealed to the firm.”

After deciding to initiate a brief scoping review for the B812 literature topic of choice (‘Wellbeing’). I thought I would check in with the blog and provide some justification and background for this choice of theme.

This spurious love affair with Bayes’ theorem has loomed over my educational learnings but only in its form as sub-game perfect in non-cooperative game theory. Big thanks to Melvyn Coles, Pierre Regibeau, and Franco Squintani for their lectures and classes from our days in Colchester on Economics. 

I started the HRM course in Nov 2023 and while I am still somewhat aware of some concepts surrounding Bayes, things have changed. Nowadays, Bayes’ theorem (10+ years on) is being used in combination with what we call supervised learning and algorithmic techniques such as neural networks.

So, how do we proceed? Perhaps, it is wise to proceed with caution. A brief scoping review will get me up to speed and updated with new research as much as is feasibly possible.

References

Brown, S. and Sessions, John (2004) “Absenteeism, Presenteeism and Shirking”, Economic Issues, 9(1), pp. 15-22 – Available at: https://econpapers.repec.org/article/eisarticl/104brown.htm (Accessed on 13 March 2024)

**Barmby, T. A., Sessions, J. G. and Treble, J. G. (1994) “Absenteeism, Efficiency Wages and Shirking”, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 94(4), pp. 561-566 – Available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/3440797 (Accessed on 13 March 2024)

-------

This post was written by Alfred Anate Mayaki, a student on the MSc in HRM, and was inspired by the author's previous learnings and experiences.


Permalink Add your comment
Share post
Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki

ExCo, The Focus on Effectiveness, B812 Day School & Wigwe University's Founder Passes Away

Visible to anyone in the world
Edited by Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki, Monday, 11 Mar 2024, 00:11
It is a very important time to be a Nigerian business leader not just because of the challenge of AI and sustainability but because of seismic shifts in the meaning of leadership and effectiveness. I recently attended the B812 Day School and learned from leaders from other sectors, locations, and seniority (such as health, education, and the wider private sector) who felt the same about the role leadership plays at all levels, especially during COVID-19.

Time and time again, what was mentioned was the concept of follow-through - that is, how do we get our employees to act persuasively (and authentically) after a decision has been taken? I told a funny story about my experience researching my father's career who is the chairman of Thomas Wyatt Plc in Nigeria.

I pointed also to the amazing story of the late Herbert Wigwe and how I was watching motivational videos of him and D'Banj back in the day. Herbert was an example to us all and a dedicated nation builder, who led as a transformational MD. Not only in the financing of critical infrastructure across the Federal Republic in his day job but also as a man. Wigwe University, as an example of Herbert's influence, is set to be an outstanding success story. Herbert was an exceptional example of such leadership and I pay my respects.

Literature Topics

What resonated with many of us on B812's Day School was when we were asked what two unit topics we valued most from the Evidence-Based Value in People Management module. Most people cited the hierarchy of evidence or Analytics, but what I found most interesting was neither the aforementioned nor the obvious attraction presented by the apex of Gifford's hierarchy. What was it then? Easy - in hindsight, I found learning through qualitative methods such as semi-structured interviewing and surveying as containing the most to offer.

Andy (a B812 Tutor) asked us to select
one of our blogs to present as a discussion topic on the Day School. I chose an extract from this page, where I have posted a total of 23 course-related blogs. For the EMA, I have chosen Wellbeing as a theme for the part 1 literature review and the part 2 critically reflective account. I decided to choose Wellbeing as a theme based on personal experience. I did some prior research into Recruitment as a theme for the EMA however, I decided against it because I want to continue to read more into the role of evidence, data, and analytics in people management. Herein lies an excellent opportunity for me to do so.

My chosen topic for the part 1 lit review within Wellbeing is Presenteeism, which is mentioned a few times in the B812 module in tutorials and the TGFs. One of the earliest references is in December (Week 6). I have since been learning by using various sources (OU’s Library, Google Scholar, JSTOR, etc.) which provide journal articles that explain a diversity of views on why presenteeism is so excessively costly in comparison to a theory known to many in the field as ‘shirking’. Dr Andrew Bryce (Sheffield) wrote in one of my other blog posts that the two aspects of productivity, that is, shirking and presenteeism, are similar but distinct. However, are both the responsibility of HR to ascertain the impact of therein?


Permalink Add your comment
Share post

This blog might contain posts that are only visible to logged-in users, or where only logged-in users can comment. If you have an account on the system, please log in for full access.

Total visits to this blog: 97531